Trading Paint: 5-Hour Energy 301 DFS Picks
New Hampshire Speedway is a one-mile flat track. It’s not quite an intermediate track or a short track. The closest comparison is Phoneix, but with different dimensions. NASCAR will switch back to the 2015 rules package for this 301 lap race at the Magic Mile.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
@Tobinator44 Pick #1 – Kyle Busch ($11,800)
Kyle is the play! That’s really all I need to say. A win at Sonoma helped him make a step toward the Chase. His win last week at Kentucky all but solidified his spot. Rowdy has one win at New Hampshire, but he has four top 5s in the last four. He also has 460 laps led. Kyle knows that he has to be the top 30 in points and the best way to do this is to find the front.
Race4thePrize: Kyle has run well in every race since his return, but he’s also wrecked at Dover, Michigan, and Daytona. Kentucky is Kyle Busch’s holy land. Outside of the bluegrass state, he loses his super powers. I don’t see Rowdy leading a lot of laps. A low ceiling with high risk, count me out.
Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Kevin Harvick ($14,200)
We’re all well aware of Harvick’s dominance this year, but his run at Phoenix in March has me smitten (Phoenix is the closest comparative track to NH). Harvick ran 113 fast laps and led 72% of the race (he doubled the second place DFS score). Kurt Busch in his first race of the year finished fifth. Stewart-Haas A Team has the setup this weekend.
Tobinator44: Definitely going out on a limb here picking the highest salaried driver and odds favorite. Haaaaaaa, of course Harvick is the top play and he will be in every one of my cash games. However, if he qualifies 10th or higher I don’t see him leading 72% of the laps, thus making him extremely overpriced for a GPP play.
Tobinator44 Pick #2 – Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800)
I can’t fill your head with a lot of great historical stats from New Hampshire about Truex, but I can say that you can throw them out anyway. Truex has had a great year in 2015 and comes back to a track that should allow him to get his form back. His average start has been 17th and he has ended up in 12th at the Magic Mile. He is definitely a guy that can lead a lot of laps and find victory lane.
Race4thePrize: The funky tracks and package changes are over. This week 2015 turns back into 2015. Truex has overcome poor past track stats and DFS points in bunches this season. His crew chief, cole pearl, has figured out the 2015 rules package. I love Truex at this price and recency bias will lower his ownership in GPPs.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Joey Logano ($12,200)
Penske flexed their muscle at New Hampshire in 2014 with a season sweep. At Phoenix, the only drivers to lead laps outside of Harvick were the two Penske drivers. Logano is hot right now (four top 5s in a row excluding Daytona). Logano is third in Avg finish and laps led. He may not be the best driver in NASCAR, but at his weekly price, it can be argued that he is the #1 Daily Fantasy driver.
Tobinator44: I’ll argue that he is not the #1 Daily Fantasy driver at his price, that would of course be Dale Jr. With that said this is his hometrack (or is it…). I know you think Logano is hot and have a pseudo mancrush, but I think this is the Haas/Hendrick week. Logano did find Victory Lane here in September, but only led 73 laps out of 303. I’d prefer to pay up $800 for Happy Harvick.
Tobinator44 Pick #3 – Kyle Larson ($10,000)
Ohhhh Kyylllllllleeee! Yeah I said it and because I have picked two Kyle’s we may just bring the soundboard back this week. Larson has a whopping two Sprint Cup starts at New Hampshire, but has been extremely impressive in both. In His first race, he started 13th and finished third. In His second race, he started 10th and finished second. With an average finish of 2.5 he is set up for starting in 8th this week and finishing in first. Wheels has predicted him to win the last four weeks, this may be the week it happens.
Race4thePrize: The kid is a risky GPP play each week. If he ever comes through, then he’ll be the key pick to a GPP lineup. The problem with Larson is that he hasn’t proven that he can lead a lot of laps. He can work his way up and he can run inside the top 10, but he’s not a lap leader. He’s fine in a couple GPPs (if he qualifies around 15th or worse bump a couple to a lot), but right now Larson is a place differential play only.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Ryan Newman ($9,200)
I’m going “way down below the ocean” Donovan style with Newman. It may have been awhile since his last win at New Hampshire, but he’s finished in the top 10 in 7 of his last 11. At Phoenix, Newman finished third with an average running position of 6th. The Rocket Man almost won the championship last year, and he did that by consistently finishing up front.
Tobinator44: I don’t mind you digging deep and for 9,200 you could be on to something. Unfortunately you forgot his terrible place differential at New Hampshire. In the last eight races he only finished in the positive twice, however one of those was a win. I agree that his price doesn’t hurt, but just worry we see a little more of the same.
Tobininator44 Value Pick – Aric Almirola ($7,700)
Aric has been a go-to value guy week after week. He comes into New Hampshire with an average finish of 19.5. Last September he started 21st and finished with a top 10. I don’t know if he replicates that performance, but I think he qualifies in 24th and finish with a top 20. Positive points are always the play with NASCAR value and Aric can get you that.
Race4thePrize: It’s a safe play, but a popular play. If Almirola is in the winning GPP, then we’re probably talking a tie at the top. Almirola is a consistent top 20 guy with place differential possibilities each week. Almirola proved a lot of people wrong last week by starting 12th and finishing there. I will have a lot of Almirola in 50/50s.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Justin Allgaier ($7,400)
HScott Motorsports may be the best little guy team in NASCAR. Allgaier almost finished in the top 25 in both New Hampshire races last year (he was wrecked with four laps left in the July race). At Phoenix, Allgaier didn’t have the fastest car, but he skillfully worked a top 20 finish. The #52 has impressed in more than a handful of starts this year (actually, he’s #51, but you had no idea; did you?) If don’t know much about Justin Allgaier, then know this – if he can avoid an accident, then he’ll finish around 20th.
Tobinator44: Factoid for you, only guy to win in the #51, Gober Sosebee in 1952 and 1954. It is highly unlikely that Allgaier competes for the win this week, but not unlikely that he hits value. I like this play considering place differential. If he qualifies in 30th, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hanging around the top 20, I’ll take plus 10 anyday.