Trading Paint: Axalta 400 NASCAR DFS Picks
This week the NASCAR circuit begins its march into the North. Just a couple hours west of New York City sits an odd looking race track. A 2.5 mile speedway shaped like a triangle with only three low banked turns is unlike any other track in the series. Drivers switch from a crawl in the corners to a dead sprint in the excessively long straightways. This track heavily favors top engines, and to no one’s surprise, Hendrick has won the last five Pocono races.
Note: This week’s race is only 160 laps. This is significantly less than the last two races, and it should be considered when drafting your team. Based on past results and the 2015 rules package, one driver will definitely lead a lot of laps. However, seeing two or three big time point getters due to Fast Laps and Laps Led is unlikely. Place Differential should be near and dear to your heart this week.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,200)
I have been waiting for this week since I found out that DK was starting DFS NASCAR. This is the week that I finally feel good about picking the greatest NASCAR driver alive in the first spot. Dale Jr. swept the Pocono races last year and is primed to have a strong showing again this week. Junior has a win at Dega this year (which puts him in the Chase), so he should be willing to take the proper risks needed to win again. The Hendrick team has dominated Pocono and this week shouldn’t be any different. Look for the 88 to add to his nine top 5s and 13 top 10s as he works his way to victory lane.
Race4thePrize – Can he really win three times in a row? He’s got everything in his favor. He’s been really dominant this year, but all we seem to talk about is Harvick and Johnson. He’s won the last two races at Pocono, so he knows what he’s doing. Poor qualifying, give me some more Junior, por favor. Qualifies near the top? I’ll take a win and a lot of laps led. At his price, he’ll be a great 50/50 play. Even with the extra DFS media heat, Earnhardt will not see a large spike in ownership. He’s just expensive enough and cheap enough that he’s shielded by all of the plays sandwiched around him.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Joey Logano ($11,500)
The Penske Fords have been quite the tandem this season. Logano is third in the standings with nine top 10s (trailing only the 4 and 78). Aside from an engine problem in the Spring 2014 Pocono race, Logano has a 2012 victory and has been a lock to hang around the top 10 at Pocono (even during his struggles at JGR). Since joining Penske, Logano has two top 10s at Indianapolis (a similarly banked track with long straightaways). With the price spike to the formerly mid level salary drivers, Logano’s price tag brings much needed relief.
tobinator44: Logano’s 2012 win shows us that he can be a factor at Pocono. He was set up for a great showing in 2010 until Harvick nudged him out of the way. This led to some great post-race antics and a quote that will live in Logano infamy, where he tells reporters who “wears the pants” in Harvick’s family. I think that Race4thePrize is on to something here and I look for Logano to “wear the pants” this week.
tobinator44 Pick #2 – Kevin Harvick ($14,000)
I will continue to say this every week: It is hard to pick against Harvick (a little bit of a rhyme, if you say it right. Slap a beat on that). At Pocono, Happy hasn’t had the same success as the Hendrick guys, but guess what…..he uses a Hendrick engine and this is 2015 (his year). He will be fast and he will be in contention, even though he faces a P1 penalty that forces him to choose his pit stall last (it won’t really be a factor at Pocono with the wide pit stalls). He doesn’t have a win at the Tricky Triangle (six top 5s), but there is a first time for everything.
Race4thePrize: What Stewart-Haas is doing with these Hendrick engines is remarkable. How amazing is it? Danica finished 15th last week.The only weakness to Harvick this week is history. It’s not even really that bad, but we’re trying to find some fault in the Harvick armor. He runs near the front at Pocono, but just hasn’t won. I can’t say anything negative about 2015. He’s the best driver in the best car on one of the best teams. I won’t have him in 50/50s, but you can make it work with Ty Dillon. By the way, it was Harvick’s “wife wears the firesuit in the family.”
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Kurt Busch ($12,500)
It’s not so much a contrarian play, but every week, the majority of action will go to Harvick and Johnson. Kurt brings the same engine speed as Harvick, but at a lower price. The 41 has run up front and fast all year. At Pocono, he’s an all time top 5 driver. In the last 10 races, he has two crashes, a 13th-place finish and seven top 10s. Over his 14-year career, Kurt’s always performed well at Pocono (2 wins and 493 laps led).
tobinator44: I can’t stand saying that Race4thePrize is right and unfortunately I am going to have to do that twice this week. Kurt comes from the faster of the two Stewart-Haas garages and also rides on a Hendrick engine (alliances baby)! Seven top 10s in the last 10 at Pocono, I’ll pony up $12,500 for that any day.
tobinator44 Pick #3 – Jeff Gordon ($11,300)
I absolutely loathe having to play the “Rainbow Warrior.” However, like I said when discussing Junior, the Hendrick guys have had a lot of success at Pocono. Gordon is the all-time win leader at Pocono with six wins. He comes in with a 103.5 driver rating at Pocono, 19 top 5s, and 31 top 10s (only because he is 105 years old). Gordon has also seen some recent success as he has found himself in the top 10 at Dover and Charlotte. NASCAR needs the retirement tour to end with Gordon in the Chase and this is the place that he can make it happen.
Race4thePrize: It would make sense that the week after I pick Gordon, he wins. I have Gordon finishing around 7th to 15th. Here’s why he can’t win at Pocono: The 24 is awful at restarts. If a driver wants to finish first this week, then they must nail a restart and get through a tricky first turn. Gordon just doesn’t have it anymore and with the new rules package, he’s not going to get a chance to pass the leader.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Kasey Kahne ($10,800)
Place Differential will be king this week. I do not know where Kahne will qualify, but if I had to guess based on previous Hendrick qualifying performances, then I would guess Kanhe will start around the 20s. Kahne has proven in the last two races that he can work his way through the field. If he starts up front, then Kahne and his Hendrick engine have a great shot at victory lane. He’s shown home run potential at Pocono in the past and he’s run well at Indianapolis.
tobinator44: Kahne….Hendrick engine….are we seeing a theme? Kahne’s price and two previous Pocono wins make him a great play this week. Just like Charlotte, I look for him to snake his way up front and be in contention for a win.
tobininator44 Value Pick – Ty Dillon ($7,400)
My favorite up and coming driver makes a great value play this week as a Sprint Cup part timer. The Richard Childress grandson (there you go Race4thePrize) and RCR mainstay will open up cap space for your lineup. Dillon has run great in the Xfinity series this season with nine top 10 finishes. He basically guarantees place differential points and has performed well in other spot starts this season.
Race4thePrize: I will definitely have some Ty Dillon exposure; so will everyone else. If Dillon is in the winning GPP, then let me go ahead and congratulate all 250 of you. He opens rosters up to a lot of possibilities and I believe he’s safe for 50/50s. I need to see how Dillon runs at Pocono in the ARCA race. He’s never been here before and this is one of the few tracks that require drivers to shift. I’m not sure if his granddaddy taught him how to do that.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Sam Hornish Jr. ($7,800)
Aric Almirola and Paul Menard will be heavily owned again this week. Ty Dillon is a risk. Sam Hornish and his price make for a nice fade at Pocono. Obviously Hornish is not lighting up the scoreboard this year, as he’s priced in the $7,000 range. The Richard Petty Motorsports Fords have looked good this year. If you take out his first race at Pocono with Penske (a crash), Hornish averages a 14th place finish driving top tier equipment. He’ll hang around the 20-25th place and flirt with the teens (he’s too old for that).
tobinator44: Who? The only thing we can really say about Sam Hornish is that he was the first loser in the 2013 Xfinity Series Championship to Austin Dillon. I may throw him in a GPP to fade the public, but I won’t admit it if any of you ask me.
This week we are releasing our picks before the final practice and qualifying. Unfortunately, teams have not run a lot of laps in race trim at Pocono. After the final practice on Saturday, we’ll record our weekly show and it will be embedded in this post. Check our twitter accounts for updates (tobinator44 & race4theprize).