Trading Paint: Cheez-It 355 DFS NASCAR Targets
This week we get to turn left and right as NASCAR makes its way to Watkins Glen International. The Glen is 2.428 miles and has 11 turns (in both directions) that drivers have to conquer. With only 90 laps, it will be extremely important that you find the right place differential drivers on DraftKings this week.
I (tobinator44) would like to take this time to introduce my new collaborator for the Trading Paint Article: mjwheeler3833, or Wheels for short. If you have watched NASCAR After Dark, you know Wheels for his man crush on Kevin Harvick and his deep love for stats. Race4thePrize is taking a sabbatical as he prepares himself for a 2042 Presidential run.
Here is our version of a Daily Fantasy NASCAR Grind Down.
$10,000+ Tier
This tier is about as sure of producing a winner on Sunday, as Kevin Harvick was a top 3 car last week in Pocono before blowing up. With the departure of Marcos Ambrose, somebody needs to fill all of the laps led, fast laps and wins that he hogged over the years while running in the Sprint Cup Circuit. However, if you take away last year’s pit road disaster and a damaged race car that resulted in a 41st place finish for Kyle Busch – he actually held a 135.6 driver rating from 2011-2013. During that same period, the dominant Ambrose only held a 126.9 driver rating. I look for Kyle Busch to stay hot and build onto his success as he has logged eight top 10s over his last 10 at Watkins Glen. The storyline heading into the week though will be whether or not AJ Allmendinger can repeat last year’s win and race his way into the chase again. AJ has had a forgettable season and was in a similar pressure spot at Sonoma earlier in the year, but didn’t live up to the expectation as he lost fuel pressure and ruined his day. The only other driver of this group to own a Watkins Glen win is Kevin Harvick, who only cost a surprising $10,000. Drivers of his magnitude deserve attention when you can roster at such a bargain. Kurt Busch rounds out this tier and while he raced his way to a third place finish last year, I will be looking heavier at the other three drivers to visit victory lane. Top Pick – Kyle Busch ($10,500)
$9,000 Tier
This is a small tier; only seven drivers in total this week were priced over $9,000. Brad Keselowski headlines this group, but is another driver that ran into issue last year and ruined his day. Over the three years prior to last (2011-13), it was Brad who was right behind Kyle Busch and Marcos Ambrose with a 119.2 driver rating. He doesn’t have a Watkins Glen win under his belt yet, but he does have three top 5s over the last five races here and may be one of the more underrated drivers this weekend. Carl Edwards is very deserving of making this tier as he has very quietly rattled of seven top 10s over his 10 career starts at Watkins Glen. Carl only has led four career laps here, so his qualifying position will really dictate his value and will be something to keep an eye out for in hopes to pick up some place differential potential out of him as he has a career +4.8 PD. Joey Logano rounds out this tier and while he doesn’t stick out as much as Brad and Carl, he is a very talented driver and should be a top 10 car on Sunday. Top Pick – Brad Keselowski ($9,900)
$8,000 Tier
This is a pretty impressive group of mid-tier drivers, both of Road Course value and top 10 drivers in overall Power Rankings on the season. The most surprising driver in this tier in none other the four-time 2015 winner Jimmie Johnson. This is actually a semi-risky play this weekend as Jimmie is still searching for his first Watkins Glen victory and only has led 17 laps in his career. With Harvick and Johnson combining for only $18,900 this weekend, I expect to see a lot of people targeting the combo. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are two aging drivers that have been elite for the majority of their careers, but are both having forgettable 2015 seasons. This week, all of the struggles are forgotten about and the raw talent and horsepower under their hoods will be showcased this weekend, and I look for both drivers to return value on their salary. Then we have three more drivers, all of which have clinched their way into the chase and are racing on Sunday with nothing to lose – Martin Truex Jr, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Matt Kenseth. Of that group, Martin Truex Jr sticks out the most to me, as he has posted a +4 PD and a series best average finishing position of 7.5 over his last four at Watkins Glen. Top Pick – Martin Truex Jr. ($8,800)
$7,000 Tier
Of course I let the new guy roll the easy tiers, but you all know I love finding value and making money. The $7,000 tier is stacked with value drivers that could essentially help you take down a GPP. The top driver in this tier is Jamie McMurray. McMurray has made for a great place differential play this year when he qualifies 15th or back. However, at the Glen, JMac has an average finish of 19th. It will take a lot of positive place differential points to win and JMac produced none at last years race as he started in 14th and finished in 14th. Sam Hornish Jr. comes in a little higher than I would like, but he has done well at the Glen. In 2012 Hornish produced a top 5 and +12 place differential points. He also has a +3 place differential average at Watkins Glen over the course of career. Depending on his qualifying position, he could set up for a great play. Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman are both guys that probably should be priced a lot higher. Hamlin has struggled at the Glen over the past five appearances, but he is driving elite machinery and is a talented driver. Newman is even more surprising as his terrible finish last year came because of an accident; in the previous four races he had an average finish of 13th. I don’t see how you can stay away from top tier equipment at a $7,000 price. Kyle Larson has driven in one Sprint Cup race at the Glen and has produced a top 5 and +19 place differential points. Mini-Rowdy sets up well for road courses and due to his aggressive style of driving has the ability to match his results from last year. Greg Biffle and Paul Menard round out this tier. Bif has the most experience and had a top 10 with +20 place differential points at last year’s race. Menard has produced negative place differential points at the last two races at the Glen, which have me looking elsewhere for value. Top Pick – Kyle Larson ($7,500)
$6,000 Tier
This tier is full of drivers that we have inserted as top place differential plays throughout the season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see one of these drivers in the top scoring lineup this week. Aric Almirola, Casey Mears, Justin Allgaier, and Austin Dillon are your highest price drivers at this tier. If I had to pick two (which I do) it would be Mears and Dillon. Both drivers have had positive place differential performances in the last three races at the Glen. Mears has an average place differential of +13 over the last three and Dillon has a +15 point performance last year. We know Mears has been a safe play week after week and he slowly makes his way through the pack. The lovebirds Danica Patrick and Wrecky Stenhouse Jr. have both had place differential success at the Glen, but I’m only rolling with the female in the equation this week. She is +22 and +15 respectively at the Glen and will be fine as long as her boyfriend doesn’t wreck her. The only intriguing driver left in this tier is Boris Said – said what? Said is the only true road course ringer in the field this week and will be asked to do exactly that; perform well at a road course. Said usually is a safe bet to produce positive place differential at road courses and may even be able to rival his third place finish at the Glen in 2005. Top Pick – Casey Mears ($6,700)
$5,000 Tier
Well that was fun, nobody here is worth the money….just kidding; if you are looking to stack top tier drivers, there are some options in this tier. Michael Annett and Landon Cassill make for the most appealing plays here. Annett has an average start of 42nd and an average finish of 31st. Depending on where he qualifies he could set up great for a positive place differential play. Cassill falls into the same category with an average start of 39th and an average finish of 26.7. Cassill has been the most trustworthy over the course of the season and I am definitely hoping for a poor qualifying effort. The only other driver with positive place differential at the Glen is Alex Kennedy. Kennedy has a +4 average and will benefit from starting near the back. An under the radar pick (until now because I am telling all of RotoGrinders) is Chris Buescher. Buescher is leading the Xfinity Series and has been labeled a road course specialist. Buescher won the Xfinity race at Mid-Ohio last year and has worked his way into contention at most of the road course races he has driven. At a bottom barrel price he makes for a great punt play. Top Pick – Landon Cassill ($5,900)