Trading Paint: Coca-Cola 600 DFS Picks
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
This week we are releasing our DraftKings picks before the final practice. Unfortunately, teams have not yet practiced in race trim at Charlotte. Qualifying doesn’t really tell the whole story.
After the final practice on Saturday, check our twitter accounts – tobinator44 and Race4thePrize – for updates leading up to the race. On to the picks!
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Jimmie Johnson ($13,200)
Eight-time Coca-Cola 600 winner….oh, that hasn’t happened yet? Don’t be surprised if you see seven-time 600 winner Jimmie Johnson standing in the winner’s circle Sunday. Johnson is arguably one of the greatest drivers of all time. Johnson comes in ranked 5th in the Sprint Cup standings and doesn’t look to be slowing down his pursuit for another championship. By qualifying in 13th Johnson has the ability to pick up some decent place differential points, and I promise you if he gets out front…..nobody will catch him.
Race4thePrize – I can’t fault the Jimmie pick. Harvick is 1A and Johnson is 1B this year, but make no mistake, this year Jimmie is 1B. I’ll spend the extra $1,000 and the take the guy that runs out front all day. Jimmie might win the race, but Harvick will score more DFS points.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Kevin Harvick ($14,200)
Johnson and Harvick have separated themselves from the rest of the field this year. The 48 is slightly cheaper, but Harvick is more likely to lead laps and run fastest laps, and this is a 400 lap race. Jimmie might win the race, but Harvick will finish near the top with a pile of fast laps and laps led. I need those laps to take down a GPP. Am I worried about Kevin Harvick’s starting position? Not at all. At Las Vegas (intermediate track), Harvick started 18th, won the race, and went on to score the highest Daily Fantasy NASCAR total of the year. My advice: Pay up or get the hell out of the way, because Happy’s comin’.
tobinator44: I can’t argue with this play at any price. However, being the history buff that I am, I am having trouble picking against the #48 (see above). I don’t think you can go wrong with either of our top two plays!
tobinator44 Pick #2 – Kasey Kahne ($10,100)
Home field advantage, that is all! Kahne is a four-time winner at CMS and has led a considerable amount of laps (1,106) in the 600. He hasn’t been great in 2015, but this is definitely the week to turn it around. With a poor qualifying effort due to a flat tire, he will start near the back of the pack. Don’t be surprised to see #5 weave his way up through the field (scoring pass differential and place differential points) and find himself in the top 10. I am banking on Kahne’s performance to land me some big money this week.
Race4thePrize: Everyone is going to clamor over Kasey Kahne’s place differential points, but this is a 400 lap race and the key to winning is laps led and fast laps. Picking Kahne is to completely abandon those stats. That being said, I will more than likely go with Kahne and the place differential play, but an argument can be made for Greg Biffle. The Bif is cheaper ($8,700) and will start fourth with a great opportunity to score laps led and fastest laps.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Joey Logano ($12,100)
He’s starting in the front row and is cheaper than Harvick and Jimmie. The only way Logano slides to the back is if he makes a pit road mistake. If that happens, you’ll gain pass differential points when he works his way back up to the front just like he did at the Kansas race. If he stays out front, he’ll score fastest laps and laps led points. At intermediate tracks, Logano has finished 4th, 10th, 4th, 5th and piled up laps led and fastest laps on top of that.
tobinator44: If you read my “Hedging Against Wrecks” article, you would know that Logano is a very aggressive driver. His aggressiveness sometimes leads to wrecks, but I don’t foresee that happening this week. Logano has performed well at intermediate tracks over the course of his career, posting two wins. He has never found victory lane at CMS, but he has found the top 10 on multiple occasions. I could definitely see myself sliding Logano into a cash lineup this week (or his partner in crime Brad Keselowski.)
tobinator44 Pick #3 – Matt Kenseth ($11,300)
Matt Kenseth finally decided that this was the week to run fast. Kenseth has been a disappointment for most of this season and needs a nice performance to turn it all around. Kenseth has won twice and led a lot of laps at CMS, so he definitely knows how to get it done. By qualifying in first and running a considerably faster lap than anyone else, Kenseth could be looking at a monster fantasy performance Sunday. I look for him to find clean air and lead the race for a long time. I don’t know if he will get the overall win, but barring a catastrophe he should stay up front and make the place differential points a non-factor.
Race4thePrize: Kenseth is an all-time guy at intermediate tracks. In 2013, he won four races at 1.5 mile tracks. Although the first practice was limited to qualifying trim, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas looked strong. He’s quietly registered six top 10s this season and starting P1, and his price is affordable. He’s a good fit if you’re stacking mid level drivers. My biggest concern is that Kenseth has not dominated 1.5 mile tracks this season. He’s finished well, but he’s not leading laps or running fastest laps. I guarantee that when the green flag drops on Sunday, Logano leaves him in the dust.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Martin Truex Jr. ($9,900)
How do you pass up on the second-ranked driver at $9,900? Kahne and Truex are underpriced and will outscore their salary. What if you had to pick between Truex and Kahne? I’ll make a case for Truex. At the last race in Kansas (intermediate track), Truex dominated and probably had the best car that day. The race was his, if it were not for poor pit road strategy. He led 95 laps and recorded 45 fastest laps. Kahne will not sniff a lead lap on sunday and his past does not guarantee a top 10. Kahne has to pass a lot of cars, a lot of good cars, in dirty air. Kahne could get mired in traffic and quickly end up a lap down. I believe both will be successful and should be in a lot of lineups, but Kahne is facing more adversity than Truex.
tobinator44: The number #78 has proven that it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of fight in the dog. Truex’s small Furniture Row Racing team has proven that they belong in the big leagues every week this year. With engines from Earnhardt-Childress Racing Engines*, they have equipment that is definitely up to the task for the 600. I can’t say that I like Truex better than Kenseth or Kahne, but I still want some exposure.
- It’s just ECR engines now; the E doesn’t stand for anything. They’ve dropped the Earnhardt affiliation, but I couldn’t break this to Tobes. He might take it too hard
tobininator44 Value Pick – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,900)
“Wrecky”, I mean Ricky, has used qualifying to set himself up for a great fantasy performance. Basically what he did well…was suck. Ricky qualified in 29th place, but he is a lot better than a 29th-ranked qualifier. Ricky probably won’t win the race, but he has the ability to accrue pass differential points on his way to a top 20 finish. This also means that he will be in the positive for place differential points as well. Ricky was in a similar situation at Texas and ended up posting 41.25 fantasy points. I don’t know about you, but for a bottom of the barrell price I’ll take my 41 FPTs and run!
Race4thePrize: I like Ricky. He was a great Xfinity series driver, but since moving up to Roush’s Sprint Cup team, things just haven’t been working. Maybe it’s his girlfriend, Danica. Maybe it’s the fact that his favorite food is candy. That’s real; candy is his favorite food. I didn’t even think it qualified as food. It could be worse; Kyle Larson’s favorite food is lettuce! There’s only one thing worse than that, the fact that I know the driver’s favorite foods. I need to write some stats to make this commentary worthwhile. In 30 intermediate track races, Stenhouse has 15 top 20s. He ran well at Texas (the track is identical to Charlotte). “Ricky too risky.” If you’ve got multiple GPP entries, throw him into one, but I like Dinger, Almirola, Menard, and even Mears more at the price range.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – A.J. Allmendinger ($8,100)
With so many personalities in NASCAR, it is very easy for a driver to have a good year and go unnoticed. The Dinger is running well and exceptionally well at intermediate tracks. He’ll start from the back of the field and is a shoo-in to gain place differential points. Don’t worry about A.J. belonging to a small team; JTG Daugherty Racing is in a technical alliance with RCR (Truex’s team is also a part of this alliance, so it’s working out).
tobinator44: Dinger’s controversy days are over and gone. He has found his place as a mid-tier driver week in and week out. However, his past history at CMS is less than stellar. I like him in a studs and duds lineup, but at his price I will definitely roll with Ricky for $200 less.