Trading Paint: Daytona DFS Targets
Daytona is the Mecca of American auto racing. This 2.5 mile super speedway is one of the oldest and most storied tracks on the NASCAR circuit. At Daytona and Talladega, the high banked turns and long stretches in between result in such high speeds that NASCAR mandated restrictor plates to slow the cars down. The unintended consequence of the restrictor plate is that every car runs at the same speed. Each of the 43 cars run side by side at 200 mph. One small mistake and half the field could wreck.
DFS Notes: Only 160 laps this week. Due to long drafting lines, fast laps can be scored by any driver. It’s nearly impossible to predict. These picks are pre qualifying. The top 5 will score a lot, but due to the big wrecks, place differential movers will make or break daily fantasy NASCAR lineups this week.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Kyle Busch ($10,800)
Kyle took down his first win of the season last week at Sonoma. He needed this as it puts him one step closer to making the Chase. Busch is aggressive, which can sometimes be extremely detrimental at Daytona. This week Busch knows he has to sneak into top 30 in the points, which means he can’t wreck out. Because of this, I look for Rowdy to be patient and make his play toward the end of the race. Kyle has the top active driver rating of 96.2 at Daytona and has the skills to end up in victory lane this week.
Race4thePrize – In a GPP with almost 100,000 entries, you have to swing for the fences. Maybe it’s serendipity; DFS players and Kyle Busch will both be going for broke. Daytona is nightmare variance. Anything can and will happen. Drivers will wreck and Kyle Busch will likely be one because he has to press the issue to make the playoffs. This race requires patience, and Kyle, well, “ain’t nobody got time for that.” If Kyle survives this race, then he’ll probably be in victory lane and the DFS players that took the risk will be rewarded.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,300)
When the 88 wins this week, Tobes’ celebration will be dampered by my bush league maneuvers. I don’t care if Junior is his favorite driver; I want the cash! Many fans say restrictor plate racing is luck or a crap shoot. If that were true, then why are the Earnhardt’s prolific at these tracks? (Cue up the Hank WIlliams Jr.) With nine wins and the highest top 5% at plate tracks (that’s over the course of 62 races – third most among active drivers), this isn’t luck, it’s a family tradition. Dale Jr. is going to roll some smoke this weekend.
Tobinator44: What a bush league move…you swoop in and snatch Jr. from my hands. Not only do you take my pick, but you also make a terrible Hank Williams Jr. reference. I’ll let you bask in the glory this week, as I obviously have no dispute for the greatest active driver on earth (I know, debatable.) Jr. stats don’t lie and his price doesn’t either. I will definitely have some cash game exposure, but I worry about his ownership in GPPs.
Tobinator44 Pick #2 – Denny Hamlin ($11,100)
Denny scored his first victory this year at Martinsville. He also took down the All-Star race at Charlotte. So what does this mean for us at Daytona….absolutely nothing. However, in the last three races at Daytona he has a 4th, 6th, and 2nd. Do you see how this is coming together? With a driver rating of 100 since 2013, it pushes Hamlin toward elite status at this track (I am sure @Race will bring up his 2013 season…all in the past). Oh yeah and those top 10s didn’t come from the front either, the last two were from 42nd and 37th…place differential anybody?
Race4thePrize: He’s never won at Daytona, but he does have a top driver rating at restrictor plate tracks. In 2013, Hamlin wrecked in three of four plate track races. Since then he’s been pretty tough with five top 10s in his last six (all in the top 20). Hamlin’s been pretty quiet of late, and should have low ownership.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Tony Stewart ($10,300)
Speaking of smoke, I’m rolling with Tony this week. Tony has had his problems this year but that was at oval tracks that employ the low horsepower rules 2015 package. This week it’s back to business as usual. Tony, like Dale Jr., has that sixth sense for restrictor plate tracks. Driver must know how to temper aggression, and wait patiently inside a pack of 200 mph cars ripping across the track like a freight train. Smoke has five wins and 18 top 5s at plate tracks. He might as well be the Thomas Jefferson of NASCAR because he’s won the Daytona 4th of July race four times.
Tobinator44: I don’t dispute the fact that Tony has had a lot of success at Daytona and restrictor plate races in the past. However, this is 2015 and all I see here is smoke…no fire. I really wish I could get behind Tony, as this would be a week that sets up great for him, but current form has me looking to spend elsewhere. However, I do give you a 10 out of 10 for the Jefferson reference…..excellent form!
Tobinator44 Pick #3 – Kasey Kahne ($11,300)
I’m not going to lie, I want Kahne to win a race. The Hendrick team member has had a strong year but hasn’t been able to find victory lane. Kahne has an average finish of 18th in 23 races here. This isn’t necessarily the most impressive stat, but this play comes down to his team. Kahne will have a strong engine, a great pit crew, and help at the end of the race. If Kahne qualifies, well I may only throw him into a few GPP entries. If he qualifies bad, you will definitely see high exposure in my GPPs.
Race4thePrize: One of the variables that will go overlooked by many DFS players at Daytona is teammates. At the end of the race, if a driver needs a block or a push, they’ll need help from a teammate that’s running up front. If you look at Hendrick’s wins at restrictor plate tracks, there are always two Hendrick cars up front working together. Kahne hasn’t dominated plate tracks by any means, but he’s a great contrarian play. In the giant GPP at DraftKings, everyone will be on the other Hendrick drivers.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Kurt Busch ($11,400)
Confidence matters for just about everything in life. A confident driver doesn’t worry about his car, his team, or the other drivers around him. At a track like Daytona, it’s hard to have an advantage over other drivers because the restrictor plate creates an even playing field. Kurt has been flawless over the last two weeks. At plate tracks, Kurt has the fifth-highest top 5%. Although Kurt has never won at Daytona, I’m not worried. He may not win this weekend, but Kurt normally starts pretty far back in the field (his avg. start of 22 ranks 37th). Bring on the place differential points.
Tobinator44: Finally you make a pick where we can agree. Kurt has been on fire the last couple of weeks with a win at Michigan and a 2nd at Sonoma. With an average finish of 14th since 2013, I like this play a lot. If he does qualify in the back then we will be rich because the place and pass differential points will be nonstop.
Tobininator44 Value Pick – Aric Almirola ($9,200)
Race will not like this pick! He will say that his 2014 win was a fluke because of rain delay. I agree that it was luck, but I still think that Almirola would have finished strong in the race (probably wouldn’t have won). Almirola has an average finish of 17th since 2013 and usually scores some nice place differential points at this track. In eight races he has only scored negative place differential point three times due to accidents. We can’t help wrecks, but we can lavish in the positive scoring of the other five races.
Race4thePrize: I am going to discount his win immediately. It was a rain shortened win. There is no way he wins that race on a regular day. I really shouldn’t be too harsh on Tobes with the value play I am about it roll out. The fact is that it’s really hard to make value picks before qualifying. If Almirola qualifies poorly, then I love it. He’s proven in recent history that he can move through the field and score big time DFS points.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($9,100)
Call me crazy, but I like Wrecky this week. I know Tobin is going to rip me apart for this, but hear me out. Stenhouse wrecks everywhere except for restrictor plate tracks. He ranks third in top 20 percentage (70%). He never qualifies well at these tracks either (his +5 place differential is the second best). Stenhouse is a strong contrarian play this week because DFS players will be affected by his reputation. Also, DFS players are going to pass over Wrecky …I mean Ricky when they dig deep into the 30s for place differential long shots. If you want to finish in money at DraftKings this week, you do not need five big scores. You just need your drivers to finish the race, and history says Ricky will finish.
Tobinator44: Be surprised, be very surprised when I say that I agree with Wrecky this week. Like Race said, history doesn’t lie and Ricky does finish at restrictor plate tracks. I also agree that the mass populous of the DFS landscape will be off of Rick, but an average start of 24th and a finish of 17th since 2013 really speaks volume. Wrecky is also cheaper than his girl again this week, which (because we know he looks at DK pricing) will affect his pride and make him race better!