Trading Paint: Dover NASCAR DFS Picks
Dover International Speedway, nicknamed the “Monster Mile”, opened in 1969. Dover is one of NASCAR’s “big” short tracks and measures approximately one mile. However, like Martinsville and Bristol, Dover features a concrete track instead of the traditional asphalt. The Dover race initially was 500 laps (or 500 miles), but was changed in 1997 to its present day 400-lap format. Many times you will hear NASCAR fans refer to Dover as a self cleaning track. Due to the 24-degree banking on the turns and the 9-degree banking on the straightaways, when a wreck occurs anywhere on the track, multiple cars will be involved. These wrecks also go from the top to the bottom quickly and thus “self clean.”
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers on DraftKings?
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Jimmie Johnson ($13,000)
I said that Jimmie was the GOAT of CMS last week. Well, I meant that Jimmie was the GOAT of the Monster Mile. With nine wins and a driver rating of 122.3, I find it nearly impossible to leave the #48 out of your lineup. I think he will be over 70% owned in cash games, but if he puts up 115 DK fantasy points, how can you afford not to have him? Early in the week the #48 team was hit with a penalty that would have affected pit stall choice. Hendrick officials have appealed the penalty and thus deferred the punishment, meaning that the #48 will be able to choose his pit stall based on qualifying results.
Race4thePrize: The only argument against Jimmie is that he will be highly owned. Fading the public with Kurt Busch was the play last week, but can you fade Jimmie and Kevin twice? Jimmie’s got the numbers at Dover, his price has dropped, he’s hungry, and he seems to only be driving for wins. Maybe he pushes it too hard, again? What am I doing? I can’t talk anyone off Johnson.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Jeff Gordon ($11,700)
I like how he’s running. I like his history at Dover. I like his price. Actually, I wish his price was a little lower. The #48 is so dominant at Dover that Gordon gets overlooked. Normally, Gordon’s stats at Dover would rank him #1. Put on the Jimmie Johnson blinders. A fall 2014 victory, four top 5s in his last five races, 17th is his worst finish in his last 10 races, and Gordon is overlooked? He needs a win, and somehow in NASCAR, these wins just find the right people.
tobinator44: Really, the geriatric Rainbow Warrior as your top play? Don’t get me wrong, statistically Gordon has been great at Dover, but I get the feeling that he already has one foot in the broadcast booth. If he wins this week, I will definitely be breaking out my NASCAR conspiracy theory. I don’t see Gordon being the big DK scorer this week.
tobinator44 Pick #2 – Matt Kenseth ($11,200)
I absolutely loved Kenseth at his price point last week, but his performance really disappointed me. JGR has started to turn it on and has quietly become the team to beat at the moment. Kenseth comes in at $11,200 this week, but will still make a lot of my lineups. Like Johnson, Kenseth has led a lot of laps at Dover (771). He is also second to Johnson with a driver rating of 108.3. Only Rowdy Busch has rivaled the numbers of Johnson and Kenseth at the Monster Mile. Kenseth has two wins at Dover and his excellent statistics put him at the top of my board this week.
Race4thePrize: Kenny won at Bristol in dominant fashion this year. Over the last 10 years, he’s a top 5 contender in every race at Dover. He’s kind of hot right now. Not Hansel hot, but hot. Kenseth is a top 10 runner, but he’s not the guy that wins this race. Not to mention, he could be heavily owned. Last point, after the first restart at Charlotte, Kenseth faded back and was never part on the conversation for the rest of the race.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Kevin Harvick ($13,900)
It’s a tough situation. If I say take Harvick, I am a hack picking chalk. If I don’t pick him, I am a moron that knows nothing about NASCAR. Look at the lap-by-lap data from the fall 2014 Dover race. Harvick led the first 240 laps 1 of the race! If Harvick does that again, and you don’t have him, then you lose! Everyone knows about his 2015 season, and his Hendrick engine. The question is: can you afford him?
1 – Harvick led 223 of the first 240 laps before a faulty valve stem caused him to pit. Could he have led all 400? That’s a scary thought.
tobinator44: I sort of feel like Race4thePrize is a hack picking chalk, but if that’s the case let me pick chalk as well. Do I like Harvick better than Johnson this week? No! Do I think you can pick against Harvick this week? No! Harvick is second in the cup standings and driving for the hottest “garage” (notice I didn’t say team) in NASCAR. With the fall race in his pocket, I look for a great showing, but I don’t see him standing in Victory Lane at the end of the race!
tobinator44 Pick #3 – Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200)
If you didn’t have Truex in your DraftKings lineup last week, you definitely didn’t pull down a big GPP cash. Truex had the best car at the Coca Cola 600 and led 131 laps (32.75 DK Points). Charlotte is to the Hendrick drivers what Dover is to Truex…his home track. Truex’s first win came at Dover in 2007. His 2015 season has been phenomenal and he comes into Dover on fire (led the most laps at Charlotte and Kansas)! Truex has eight top 10s at Dover, including two in 2014. I look for this to be the week of a long Monster Mile burnout for the 78.
Race4thePrize: Truex is an example of boiling a frog. His salary only went up a smidge, but it’s all relative. Almost every other driver’s salary dropped. This is a unique, one time DFS occurrance. So what? Basically, when you compare salaries, Truex has had a significant price hike. I love Truex in cash, but does he have the home run potential? Remember a NASCAR home run does not come from a win; it comes from fastlaps and laps led. Since Marty’s win at Dover in 2007, he’s only led 11 laps in all of his Dover races. On the other hand, Truex has been piling up the fast laps and laps led over his last two races. What’s a more important stat: his current run or track history?
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Kyle Busch ($10,300)
I wrestled with picking Martin Truex or Kyle Busch. Truex is safe and has run well at Dover with Furniture Row Racing. Rowdy is not safe, but the sky’s the limit. I was watching cars run laps around this steep banked short track, and I couldn’t help but think this is Rowdy’s race. You watch these cars come out of turn 4 and the back end flys out, it looks like it’s all over; the cars going to spin and slide into the wall. Kyle Busch excels at driving loose, fast cars. He’s going to get out front and churn points on the DraftKings scoreboard.
tobinator44: I have been on Rowdy since the day after the Coca Cola 600. I wanted to make sure that he finished the race free of any injury related mishaps. I feel like Race4thePrize knew exactly who I was talking about in my super secret tweets! The facts are; he needs a win, he needs to finish in the top 30. Kyle has 11 wins at Dover throughout the three major NASCAR circuits. The Rowdy play is pure gold this week!
tobinator44 Value Pick – Brian Scott ($7,700)
Brian Scott is a part-time guy that is probably off of a lot of guys’ radars. He is driving for RCR and gets a chance at using those great Earnhardt Childress Racing engines (yes, I said it again Race4thePrize). He drives well, is in great equipment, and has shown us he can perform at a mid-tier level (13th at Vegas and 27th at Fontana.) For $7,700 he fits perfectly in one of my #48 lines.
Race4thePrize: If he qualifies poorly, “you’re gonna need a bigger boat.” It seems that everyone will jump all over Scott just like they did Kahne last week. He won’t have the crazy ownership that Kahne had, but he’s going to slide into every Johnson, Harvick, Team Penske lineup. I will take a hard look at the RCR part timer after all of the practice sessions are over. He’s at the top of my cheapies list, but I want to see how the $7,000 to $7,300 knuckleheads drive first.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Ricky Stenhouse ($7,800)
Last week Tobes picked “wrecky,” and I quickly jumped all of over him. Now, I am picking Stenhouse. Ricky looked like a great pick late into Sunday night. Stenhouse was making a push towards the top 15 from the 30s, and then he hit the wall. That’s so Wrecky! You know what else is so Wrecky? Running well at short steep banked tracks. His Bristol and Dover game is on point. He cut his mullet. That will totally fix everything. Actually, if he really wants to improve, he should cut something else. OH SNAP!!! And yes, I already made this joke on twitter earlier this week, give me a break.
tobinator44: Wrecky has one thing going for him….Danica. I know he has run well at other short tracks on the circuit, but due to his history of being “Wreck”y, I am staying away. At a self cleaning track like Dover, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up ping ponging off of the top and bottom walls about 40 times. At his price, I like Scott a lot better!
This week we are releasing our picks before the final practice and qualifying. Unfortunately, teams have not run a lot of laps in race trim at Dover. After the final practice on Saturday, we’ll record our weekly show and it will be embedded in this post. Check our twitter accounts for updates (tobinator44 & race4theprize).