Trading Paint: Jeff Kyle 400 NASCAR DFS Picks
NASCAR is implementing a new package at Indy. The plan is to create pack racing and drafting. This race is notorious for being a snooze because drivers cannot pass each other. If NASCAR’s plan works, then we’ll see more passing and fast laps coming from anywhere in the field (i.e. Daytona and Talladega). If NASCAR’s plan does not work, then this race will be similar to Pocono (long straight stretches with low banked turns).
At $12,000 and above on DraftKings, I like Kevin Harvick the most. There is a great deal of separation salary wise, but Harvick is worth it. The new Indy rules package features a gigantic spoiler. The increase in aero downforce will result in drivers rarely releasing the throttle. In other words, the fastest car will win, not the best driver. Harvick has that fastest car each week and was particularly fast at a similar style track in Pocono. Martin Truex Jr.’s recent races are a concern, but if he looks good in practice, then I will lean heavy on his Pocono finish. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Jimmie Johnson, but he’s great at Indy and Chevy is great at Indy as well. Ante-Practice, I’m leaning on power. Top Pick – Kevin Harvick.
The $11,000 tier is stuffed with seven elite drivers. Kyle Busch is smoking hot and the 2015 rules package was built for him, but Toyota has never won at Indy and Kyle has only led 42 laps in 10 races at Indy. If this race turns into a pack style drafting race (the Xfinity race on Saturday will confirm or disprove this), then you have to roll with the current king: Dale Earnhardt Jr. The safest top 5 play is Matt Kenseth. He’s lived inside the top 10 this year and has the second-highest top 5 average at Indy (47%). It’s the same old story with Jeff Gordon. There are a lot of stats that support picking him, but the problem is that he hasn’t proven he’s a lap leader this year. He’s a place differential play only. I’m not a big fan of Team Penske this week unless they’re in a position to score place differential points. Top Pick – Matt Kenseth.
It gets a little dicier at the $9,000 and $10,000 range. My favorite play is Kasey Kahne. His GPP value will will go up with an assumed drop in ownership (three poor outings in a row). Kahne led 70 laps and finished 6th last year at Indy. $10,100 is too cheap for a Hendrick Chevy with the fifth best driver rating at The Brickyard (100.1). Denny Hamlin is the only JGR driver that I want in this range. I’m not that impressed with the 11, but if this becomes a drafting affair, he’ll have a major advantage. Ryan Newman is having a good year and has been successful at Indy (his last three races – 11th, 1st, 7th). That being said, I really only like the Rocket Man as a place differential play. Jamie Mac has a higher floor than Kid Icarus (Kyle Larson), but if the kid can just stay far enough away from the sun, then he’ll be a great dark horse pick. Larson had a top 10 DFS score at Indy last year and has raced well at Pocono, but if this turns into a draft/pack race, then stay away from Larson. Top Pick – Kasey Kahne.
I’ll hand off the baton to tobinator44 and let him dig through the leftovers.
Of course Race4thePrize leaves me the $8,000 bargain bin guys, obviously he knows the money is made in the lower tiers. My favorite play at this price point is Paul Menard. Menard’s only win has come at the Brickyard. During that win Menard led 21 laps. I know that I pick on him a lot because of his sponsorship (Menard sponsoring Menard…) but he is using RCR equipment and considers Indy his home track. Austin Dillon has been a DFS hit or miss since DK rolled out NASCAR. Race4thePrize and myself even called him the lesser Dillon brother during our NASCAR After Dark show for Pocono. Austin has been a man on fire the last three weeks, producing two top 10s. Austin feels slighted by an absurd (we know you think it’s true Race) comment by Denny Hamlin and this slight has turned into speed. A sneaky driver that could fly under the radar this week is Chase Elliott. Elliot has made a handful of starts in the Sprint Cup series this year and has found the top 20 twice. Race4thePrize hates using Xfinity stats, but considering that’s mainly what Elliott has, his top 15 Xfinity performance at Indy last year should be something to build upon. Clint Bowyer is the final guy I am considering in the $8,000 range. Bowyer can win you a GPP or make you sweat bullets until the end of the race. If we can get a 20th (or above) qualifying effort out of Clint, then the pick will pay huge dividends. Bowyer has two top 5s and two top 10s at Indy. He needs a good race at the Brickyard to bridge the two-point gap with Aric Almirola and compete for the chase. Top Pick – Paul Menard.
If you’re playing Harvick or two $11K drivers then you have to dip into the $7,000 cellar. My top guy at this tier is Aric Almirola. The RPM driver has been on a top 15 rampage this season. He comes into Indy with only three starts under his belt, but he does have a 17th. He has developed into a great value play due to his potential for place differential. The next driver to consider is A.J. Allmendinger. The Dinger has experience at Indy in two different types of cars, a stock car and an Indy car. Last year he started 36th and finished 18th…can we say place differential. For his price A.J. makes a great compliment to a top tier driver line. The last guy in this tier that I would consider is Casey Mears. Rodney Dangerfield would say that Mears gets no respect, but in the NASCAR world he should. Mears has been a great fantasy scorer this year. His ability to get place and pass differential points puts him in play every week. Mears won the pole at Indy in 2004 and has a top 10 finish in 2005 starting from the 40th position. Top Pick – Aric Almirola.