Trading Paint: Quaker State 400 DFS Targets
Kentucky is a bumpy, oddly shaped 1.5 mile oval (intermediate track). It’s the newest track to be a part of the Sprint Cup series, and many of the veteran drivers have limited experience on this track. Xfinity and truck series regulars have been racing on this track for years.
This week the cars will be fitted with a new rules package that lowers aerodynamic downforce. It’s been hotly debated whether it will matter or not. NASCAR say “this will create more passing and allow drivers to be unaffected by “dirty air” and catch the leader.” Others say, “that’s what you said last time.” Zen Master says, “We’ll see.”
DFS Notes: A mile and a half track means more laps; 267 to be exact. This means Fast Laps and Laps Led will be huge factors. The drivers that start up front and the ones that post fast practice speeds are your targets.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Kyle Busch ($10,800)
I like a guy that has to win and Kyle is that guy. After a mishap at Daytona last week, Rowdy still finished in the top 20. He needs a win to continue his push for the Chase and make that top 30 in points. Busch had the inaugural Sprint Cup win at Kentucky in 2011. Since his win he has never finished out of the top 10. If you are worried about limited stats check out his performance in the other series….I bet Race will do that for you. I will have a lot of Kyle Busch exposure this week.
Race4thePrize – In 16 Kentucky races (all three series), Kyle has 14 top 10s, and 11 top 5s. His 124.3 driver rating at Kentucky is the best in Sprint Cup. He’s desperate for wins, and this doesn’t seem to be a place where Kyle will wreck. When Kyle doesn’t wreck he’s a monster. When you consider his stats, Kyle is way too cheap this week. His 9th highest salary is based on his 9th best odds, but I think Vegas missed it this week. There will be heavy Rowdy ownership this week.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Brad Keselowski ($12,100)
If you’re worried about BK’s performance of late, don’t be. I attribute Brad’s weak results to the fact that he’s locked into the chase and the latest races were non-chase, non-intermediate races. Brad has finished inside the top 10 in all of the 1.5 tracks this year. In four Kentucky races, Brad has been the top scorer twice and second once. Last year, he scored 140 pts. He almost doubled second place. Only Kyle Busch has run as many laps on this bumpy track.
Tobinator44: Ummm….did you forget to say that he has two out of the four wins at this track? BK hasn’t been great in 2015 after his win at Fontana, but the 2012 Chase champion has just been biding his time. If there is a track where he wants to win and can win it is Kentucky. I am all about picking chalk and with 346 laps led at Kentucky i’ll take BK any day.
Tobinator44 Pick #2 – Matt Kenseth ($11,300)
Race hate Matt Kenseth, this is a known fact, but you can’t hate one of the greatest active 1.5 mile drivers on the circuit. Kenseth eats intermediate tracks for breakfast and Kentucky is no different. He won the 2013 race after starting in 16th. Oh and by the way he has been in the top 10 the other three after starting 13th, 20th, and 14th respectively. Look for Kenseth to lull you to sleep as he works his way up front and potential finds himself in victory lane.
Race4thePrize: Matt Kenseth bores me. He’s great at 1.5 miles track, but those tracks can be boring as well. It’s a match made in heaven. Salary wise Kenseth is right in between flashier plays (Rowdy, Gordon, Logano, Junior). Even if the field is impressed by his intermediate track stats and his solid Kentucky numbers, he will be under owned. He’s not a pick to win, and that’s why I like him. He’s no one’s pick to win. He’s a contrarian GPP play and safe 50/50 play.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Jimmie Johnson ($13,100)
It’s chalk, but you go chalk at intermediate tracks. You need the fast laps – laps led combo, so you roll with the Darth Vader of NASCAR. (old school Yahoo NASCAR fans might remember that moniker). There are so many unknowns this week. Teams must adapt to a new rules package at an oddly shaped, bumpy oval. This race plays out perfectly for Chad and Jimmie (not Chad and Jeremy, but it is a perfect time for “a summer song”). I can hear Tobin yelling the background, “Give them some stats!” There are only three active tracks where Jimmie has not won; Kentucky is one of them. How bad do you think he wants to check off Kentucky?
Tobinator44: So you give one stat…..Well I agree that is totally acceptable for the #48. JJ is chalk, JJ is the greatest active intermediate track driver, and guess what JJ should find most of your lineups. Mic drop!
Tobinator44 Pick #3 – Kurt Busch ($12,200)
Kurt is on fiyahhhhhh. If you want a driver and car you can trust it has to be Kurt. Kurt has been all over the top 10 the last three races. He has a win at Michigan and a second place at Sonoma. Kurt also drives for one of the fastest garages in NASCAR. His numbers haven’t been stellar at Kentucky with only two top 10s, but NASCAR purist will tell you that a great year can outweigh history. This is exactly why Kurt is in play this week.
Race4thePrize: Once you get passed the top five, it gets a little murky. There are a lot of guys (yes, guys) that you could have put in this spot. Kurt’s been the hottest, so it makes sense. You could have gone with Truex; the last two wrecks were at unique tracks. I like Logano; he’s raced well here with Penske and in the xfinity series he won at Kentucky three years in a row (2008-10). What about the mid level play of the week: Ryan Newman (two top 5s at Kentucky). You went Kurt. He’s got one of the fastest cars week to week, but intermediate tracks have not been his best tracks this year. His numbers are decent at Kentucky. If anything, he’ll have low ownership in GPPs.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Kevin Harvick ($13,900)
More Chalk!!! It’s a chalk race. Think about this – you have one pick, and you need your pitcher to toss a shutout – you’re going chalk, too. At intermediate track this season, Happy has a 3.2 average finish. If fast laps and laps led are predicated by running up front, then you kinda have to take Harvick. He’s run 767 fast laps this season; no one else is above 300. Harvick’s intermediate track fast lap stats by race: 59, 79, 54, 31, and 47. At worst this car runs 40 fast laps (20 pts). He averages 3rd at 1.5 mile tracks (41 pts). That’s a conservative 60 points.
Tobinator44: Heres what I have to say about Harvick…agreed! That’s about it….I hate being in absolute agreeance with Race.
Tobininator44 Value Pick – Paul Menard ($8,800)
Menard has been a great DFS play this year. I usually stay away because of how he drives a ride sponsored by his dad (no animosity there and probably just jealous.) One thing Menard does well is drive intermediate tracks. He has an average finish of 20th at intermediate tracks, which for his prices is great. He also has two top 15s at Kentucky, but has the potential to work his way into the top 10. If he qualifies 20th or above he is a must play as he will score positive points.
Race4thePrize: That price is a little close to mid range, but I’ll let it slide. Menards been a great play every week this year. Even when his price rose to near $10,000. Sure, he had a bad finish at Pocono, but in that race his equipment malfunction and he got busted with two speeding on pit road penalties and on top of that he blew a tire. Daytona was good points wise either; even though he finished 16th. Plate races – what are you going to do? At Charlotte, Dover, Michigan, Sonoma, Menard was in the top 10 in DFS points. A top 10 score in the $8,000 range? Let’s say he’s a little off and is only in the top 20. In his price range that’s fine; you might not win the GPP, but you have a good chance of being in the money.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Austin Dillon ($8,500)
In the past I have been worried about Dillon sliding backwards, and he may slide a little on Saturday night. If he qualifies inside the top 10, it’s probably safest to back off, but hear me out. Everyone loves Brad and Kyle because they have dominated Kentucky, but that’s because this is a new Sprint Cup track. Brad and Kyle have turned a lot of laps at Kentucky in the Xfinity and the truck series (I never call it Camping World because I’m not sure how much the readers follow NASCAR). I’ve taken the long way to getting to this point, but Austin Dillon has a lot of experience at this track. He’s raced here more than Gordon, Johnson, Kurt Busch, and Earnhardt. This is a tricky oval with a lot of bumps – Austin has an advantage this weekend. Last year, his average running position was 13th. The year before that, in a part time ride for a small team, he finished 24th.
Tobinator44: Oh Race took the heartstrings play, how sweet and nothing like him. Austin is my second favorite driver right under the greatest active driver on the planet Dale Jr. It was pretty rough seeing Austin wreck that #3 at Daytona, but luckily he came out unscathed and safe. I agree that Austin’s experience at Kentucky will be a huge. He was driving at Kentucky in the Camping World Series before the Sprint Cup guys even knew it was an option. I like the #3 based on price and experience.