Trading Paint: Quicken Loans 400 DFS Picks
NASCAR pays reverence to the Motor City this week by holding the first of its two annual races. Michigan is a two mile long track. It’s a big, wide, and fast intermediate track. Speeds will be in excess of 200 mph. Aerodynamics will play a major role this week. The leader will separate easily, and the restarts will be chaotic. The side by side high speed racing in the corners creates plenty of dirty air and loose cars. There will be pileups. No one is safe.
Note: There’s only 200 laps this week. Final scores will be closer to Pocono (300-point GPP winner) than Charlotte (380-point GPP winner). Place differential is the safest play at low lap races. One driver might separate from the field with fast laps and laps led, but two or three doing so is unlikely.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($12,200)
Junior was extremely happy with his performance last week at Pocono. DFS guys were hoping for the home run, but unfortunately Junior didn’t pull it off due to a late race bump up. Junior has two wins at Michigan, the last came after a 143 race winless streak. He has also led 288 laps at this track. If he has a good qualifying effort, watch out. He will lead laps and be in contention for the win. If he has another poor qualifying effort, don’t worry he will score you tons of place differential points. I am sure we will have to hear from Race4thePrize about my love for Junior, but this week I’d be crazy to leave him out of my line.
Race4thePrize – If I push the limits of DFS writing, Gabey will retweet this article more than he should. Don’t worry, if you’re reading this, then Rotogrinders says it’s okay (honestly, I don’t know how closely they proofread NASCAR articles). I have not a modicum of ill will towards Dale Jr. this week. He is still cheap enough and he’s racing at a track where he excels. I just worry about tobinator44’s 88 love. Change the twitter handle already. tobinator88 is infatuated with Dale Jr., but it’s a safe pick for big points this week.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500)
Imagine we are playing any DFS sport, and for three weeks in a row (or games) a player is the the number one performer. After those three performances, where are your ranking his salary? If you guessed number one, you’re wrong. Truex’s salary ranks fifth. Get in while the getting’s good. This is google stock circa 2004. What else does Truex have to prove to you? He’s fast, and he wants to win the moneys.
tobinator44: Fast….Fast…..Fast! Why is this guy still undervalued? Truex is the hottest driver in the sport right now and has solidified his spot in the Chase. I will have exposure and you should have some as well. Seems like Race put a lot of thought into coming up with this pick.
tobinator44 Pick #2 – Jimmie Johnson ($13,000)
Who has won the most races this year? If you guessed the #48 you would be right! Jimmie Johnson is hands down the best active driver in NASCAR. His championship numbers will soon rival the great Dale Sr. and Richard “The King” Petty. Just like Harvick, Johnson has had a great 2015 season. Historically he has one win at Michigan International Speedway. He also sports an average driver rating of 102.5 at MIS. His last win came two weeks ago at Dover and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in victory lane this week. I’ll leave you with some humor that sums it all up. How does Jimmie Johnson change a light bulb? He holds the bulb and the world revolves around him! Yeah, the joke was terrible, but for the NASCAR world there is a lot of truth in it.
Race4thePrize: I can’t grow a beard, but if I could, would I want it to look like Jimmie’s or Gabey’s (fishing for retweets)? Maybe you’re asking yourself the same question. It’s more than likely you are asking yourself about Jimmie’s 2015 stats and Michigan stats. The stats are great. Now, back to the beard debate. No? Johnson’s beard seemed out of sync during practice at Pocono and failed inspection three times, but it still finished third. He didn’t lead last week, but he’s always hanging around upfront waiting to strike. Fade at your own risk, and I’m talking about beards.
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Kevin Harvick ($13,900)
Stats, Stats, Stats. They’re good, but if you wanted to read stats you’d look at the box scores. Sure the numbers matter, but there is more to these races. Last week’s stats aren’t going to tell you that Harvick lost because he adjusted his gear ratio for rare downshifts and then suffered on vital restarts. That’s a risk that a 1st place team takes at a funky track. There’s no funkiness this week. His price dropped this week. Drafting Harvick is like selecting Jesus with your first round deity pick, you’ve probably picked the winner, but he’s going to cost you a lot of frankincense and myrrh.
tobinator44: I was looking for the stats, but I couldn’t find any. Just like the Truex pick above Race4thePrize put a lot of deep thought into his top 2…. Bashing aside, both plays are excellent this week. Harvick is a dominant racer, from a great team, with a great crew chief, and a Hendrick alliance. What more could you want? Hold on…let me answer that for you…nothing! Unleash the “Closer” at will this week.
tobinator44 Pick #3 – Matt Kenseth ($11,000)
The #20 has flown under our radar over the past couple of weeks. I thought that the JGR driver was going to rule Charlotte, but Truex Jr. would have none of that. Michigan has always been a good track for Kenseth. Kenseth’s last and only win at Michigan came in 2006 when he was with Roush Fenway Racing. However, his 18 top 10s should put him at the top of everybody’s list. Just like Kenseth’s favorite singer (Taylor Swift) look for him to “Shake It Off” and run the wheels off of his Toyota for his second win of the season.
Race4thePrize: I was going to edit out the Taylor Swift part to save Tobin the embarrassment, I left it in. I did take out the links to the Taylor Swift video and Tobin’s Swifty Fan Fiction Page. Kenseth’s salary has crept up a little, but he’s still a safe play. His 8 to top 10 finishes are the best at JGR this year. My only fault with the 20 is that his JGR michigan stats show a clear drop off from his Roush Michigan stats That being said, the Michigan stats are still good, it just makes you wonder – how much of Kenseth’s dominance at Michigan was Roush magic?
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Joey Logano ($11,200)
He didn’t let me down last week. With ease, Logano sliced his way through the field from 43rd to 4th. In my nerdiest of moments, but only a sign of days to come, I’ve been watching past Michigan races on YouTube. Logano looked great (be it pixilated standard def YouTube video). He jumped out out on every restart at Michigan, and my eyes don’t lie, he ranks #1 with an avg. restart speed of 175.2 mph. This will be a race for clean air, and Logano has proven that he can get out front.
tobinator44: I know for a fact that watching old race videos on YouTube is not one of your nerdiest moments. However, in one of my nerdiest moments I followed you to the same YouTube video….and….Logano did look great! Logano will look for clean air and when he finds it, peace out! Clean air, don’t care; look for the #22 to lead the pack this week.
tobininator44 Value Pick – Ty Dillon ($7,700)
I told you to play him last week (Drops mic, walks off stage)! Honestly, I don’t really have anything else to say, but I’ll leave you with this. Dillon is the better of the brothers and is competing for a full-time Sprint Cup ride. He gave us some great place/pass differential points at Pocono and ended up in 18th. I think we see a lot of the same this week and based on price alone it makes him a play.
Race4thePrize: The questions with Ty is where do we draw the line? In 50/50s, if Dillon qualifies in the high 20s and finishes there, you’ll be fine at $7,700. If the RCR part timer qualifies 25th or better in GPPs, it’s a pass. You’re going to need around 35-40 pts out of Ty to hit #1 in GPPs. At least 30 points will be needed from Ty for your team to finish above the GPP cut line. Now, if you’re pairing Ty with a $7000 driver to stack the top, then you can take Ty with a 20th to 25th qualifying effort.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Casey Mears ($7,500)
Please, don’t qualify well. We release these picks before qualifying, and if you qualify really well, I’m going to look stupid. I might have to rescind the pick for the grinders, and that makes me look like a putz (which literally means “penis” in yiddish – didn’t know that). Here’s the deal Casey: you can qualify around 25th as long as you finish around 20th (his history says this will happen). I’ll take 30 points at $7,500. Hell, in 50/50s, I can live with 20 points at your price. If Mears finishes outside of the top 30, then let the dick jokes fly.
tobinator44: Do you remember your Sam Hornish pick last week Race4thePrize? Putz of a pick (did I use the yiddish right in a sentence?). I agree, if Mears qualifies poorly, then we all let him fly. However, if Mears is 20th or above, I will have no exposure at all. Make sure you read that last part…no exposure at all!
This week we are releasing our picks before the final practice and qualifying. Unfortunately, teams have not run a lot of laps in race trim at Michigan. After the final practice on Saturday, we’ll record our weekly show and it will be embedded in this post. Check our twitter accounts for updates (tobinator44 & race4theprize).