Trading Paint: Toyota/SaveMart 350 DFS Targets
What?! We actually have to turn right this week? Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52 mile road course located in Sonoma, California. The raceway has 12 turns and drastic elevation changes of 200 Feet (due to Sears Point and the Sonoma Mountains). In recent years the track has become a staple road course race for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Circuit alongside Watkins Glen in New York. Winning a road course race comes down to cornering and braking/acceleration. Some drivers have this skill, and some do not.
Rankings are based on a combination of DFS points and salary. These are not solely the best drivers for the weekend, but the best bang for your buck on DraftKings. What fun would it be to suggest that you pick the three highest-priced DFS NASCAR drivers?
Note: Only 110 laps at Sonoma. Fast Laps and Laps Led are downgraded this week.
@tobinator44 Pick #1 – Jimmie Johnson ($13,100)
In 2010 JJ spoiled the day for Marcos Ambrose and won his first (and only) race at Sonoma. Johnson has had another career year in 2015 with 4 wins. He is 5th in the standings, but has comfortably solidified his spot and is now running for victory lane. Last year at Sonoma he put up major place differential numbers as he went from 22nd to 7th. Johnson has also had eight top 10s in 13 races at Sonoma. I think that he will qualify better this year, but with an average finish of 11.1 I will be banking on the #48.
Race4thePrize – With plenty of ways to save, Jimmie is definitely affordable this week. In 2015, Jimmie has been hard to watch at times, but he still finds his way to the top. Hendrick dominated at Sonoma last year. With right turns and inclines, setup shenanigans won’t matter this week. The best driver with the best engine will rule the day. JJ is the safest top 5 play of the week.
@Race4thePrize Pick #1 – Kurt Busch ($12,400)
I’ve got to get some Stewart-Haas power into my life. Kurt’s drive rating (111.2) second to only his teammate, Kevin Harvick. His average finish of 10th is the third highest. He’s led 17.4% of the laps this year (second most), and that includes the three races that he missed! He’s in a groove; Kurt finished 5th at Pocono and won at Michigan. At Sonoma, Kurt has the third-highest top 5 percentage (three top 5s in the last four races).
tobinator44: I think you meant to say Hendrick power in your life. However, only this particular Stewart-Haas garage has figured out how to get everything out of their Hendrick engines. I have Kurt sitting second in my rankings only to Jimmie Johnson (Harvick is 3rd if you are wondering). Kurt has been riding the rails lately and I agree this will be another great week in the desert for the #41.
tobinator44 Pick #2 – Martin Truex Jr. ($11,200)
I tried to come up with a witty music reference (like Race4thePrize does), but all I could think of was Nelly’s It’s Getting Hot in Here! Things have definitely gotten hot for Martin Truex and the Furniture Row Racing Team. Truex has arguably been the best driver in the 2015 Sprint Cup Season. With a win at Pocono, his confidence is on the rise and he has punched his ticket for the Chase. Truex broke a 218 race winless streak with his win at Sonoma in 2013. He won the 2013 race starting from the 13th position (nice place differential). I think we see a lot of the same this week as Truex leads laps and also puts up some of the fastest laps in the desert. Raise this man’s price!
Race4thePrize: “Andale andale moma E.I. E.I. uh ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh What’s poppin tonight.” Of course I will be using Nelly references for the rest of my rebuttals. Andale is supposed to mean “hurry up” which makes sense for Truex, but I googled it, and it seems like it’s not a real Spanish word. This is totally not on fleek! Fade Truex at your own risk; four weeks in a row he’s burnt you. Truex’s run is like LeBron putting up four triple-doubles in a row without a salary change. Would you pass on that?
Race4thePrize Pick #2 – Clint Bowyer ($8,900)
Bowyer has fallen quite a ways since his near 2012 championship, but he’s finally headed in the right direction. Clint has finished in top 10 in two of the last three races, and in those races, Clint had to work his way through the field. He’s still sporting an affordable price tag, so I can look the other way when it comes to some of his 2015 races. At Sonoma, he’s Mad Max (road warrior…get it?). In nine races at this California road course, Bowyer has seven top 10s with an average place differential of +7. Bowyer not only knows how to pass at this road course, but he makes moves at the top of the field. No one else has this skill. It’s time to load up.
tobinator44: I love the price tag and I love the play, but I am thinking extremely high ownership this week. The average place differential of +7 makes even the novice fantasy NASCAR player salivate. I will run him liberally in cash lines and will have exposure in GPPs. If you want to take down a big GPP prize I think you need to look elsewhere.
tobinator44 Pick #3 – Jeff Gordon ($11,300)
Why did the second Hendrick driver I choose have to be older than Methuselah? You want a strong track for Jeff and a potential retirement tour win, here you go. Sonoma is home for Jeff Gordon. He was raised a short distance down the road in Vallejo, California. Hmmm, a homecoming doesn’t impress you, try these stats on for size. Gordon leads drivers with four wins at Sonoma. Gordon has the most poles, most top 10s, and a 103.4 driver rating. His average finishing position of 7th makes him more than worth the money. All you #24 fans this could be your week to watch the Rainbow Warrior add to his legacy.
Race4thePrize: On paper it’s a great pick, and NASCAR conspirators have been circling this date for Gordon’s final win (I’m leaning towards Indianapolis). We seem to say this every week, but Gordon has raced well here in the past. This week that statement carries more weight, but I’m still leery of the 24. Restarts won’t matter as much this week, and the 2015 reduction in horsepower shouldn’t be much of a factor. I’m not loading up on the Rainbow Warrior, but I will have a more than the usual amount of Jeff Gordon in GPPs this week.
Race4thePrize Pick #3 – Carl Edwards ($10,500)
With Marcos Ambrose’s departure, MRN has taken to dubbing Carl Edwards at the new “King of the Road.” Cue up indie rock hit, “King of the Road” by Piebald on Spotify. Carl Edwards averages an 11th place finish at road courses (second behind’s Tony Stewart 10th). His eight top 5s in 15 races ranks third. Edwards win at Sonoma last year was lucky (I sound like a broken record), but you have to put yourself in a position to be lucky. I do not like what Edwards has done this year, but he has a good car, a good course record, and an affordable salary. At his price, you can afford to get one of the top tier footlong subs (if those even exist).
tobinator44: Piebald….really, did you forget about the late, great Roger Miller and his 1964 original rendition? Depending on qualifying I may have some exposure, but I don’t fully trust Edwards. I feel like his Charlotte win was a fluke (fuel mileage win…feel free to blast away in comments). I think there are better plays around the same price, Logano and Gordon for $800 more…..I’ll take two. Race just likes to see him back flip!
tobininator44 Value Pick – AJ Allmendinger ($8,300)
I know what you’re thinking….$8,300, isn’t that closer to a mid-tier play? No, this week it is definitely not! I am all in on AJ as a value play. My only fear is that everyone else will be as well. AJ is a road course guy, he has had more success at Watkins Glen, but he has been fine at Sonoma as well. The thing that really attracts me to AJ (take that and run with it Race) this week is his potential for huge place differential points. He will probably qualify in the mid 20s, but has produced four top 10s at Sonoma. I think he scores big per value this week.
Race4thePrize: “If you want to go and take a ride with me, We 3-wheeling in the fo’ with the gold D’s.” I have no idea what any of that means, but it’s Nelly and I know that I have heard that song more than a couple times, and I think it has something to do with cars? I don’t know; it must be the money. AJ will be a popular value pick this week. He’ll more than likely hit, and if he does, you and everyone else will split the pot. His road course stats are impressive at his salary. Lock him up for 50/50s, but I will limit my AJ exposure in GPPs.
Race4thePrize Value Pick – Casey Mears ($7,600)
My Casey Mears crush has moved past Phase 4: Facebook Stalking to Phase 5: Infatuation. Yes, I googled the stages. It’s science, don’t argue with me. Mears is consistently running around 20th (avg finish of 21.5), and his team is clearly benefiting from joining the RCR alliance (Truex is a member). Mears is having his best season since joining Germain Racing (small, single car team). If his seven top 20s at $7,600 are not enough, take a gander at his Sonoma stats. In his last three races at Sonoma, Mears has finished 15th, 16th, and 13th. His results at Watkins Glen are nearly identical. This team knows road courses.
tobinator44: Oh how sweet, you have a crush on Casey Mears. I can’t understand why Mears price hasn’t moved. Week after week he proves that he is closer to a mid-tier play. However, for $7,600 how can you pass up on a guy that is scoring place differential and finish points for your fantasy team. His Sonoma stats are great for his price. Your man crush aside, I can’t dispute this pick.