Trading Paint: Windows 10 DFS NASCAR Picks
Pocono is very similar to Indianapolis: long straight stretches with flat banked turns. Engine power is paramount. The best place to pass is on restarts.
DraftKings dumped pass differential (crowd cheers) and added a sixth driver (crowd groans with a couple people clapping). We’ll all get used to it and move on.
Here is our version of a Daily Fantasy NASCAR Grind Down.
$10,000+ Tier
I guess Race4thePrize wanted to leave the ballers for me this week. Kevin Harvick is on an island all by himself (Harvick’s fppg avg. is 20 points higher than the next closest driver). If you are looking for chalk look no further. He finished second in the spring; second last week; if Happy misses out on victory lane again, don’t worry, fast laps and laps led are worth more than wins.
Pocono has been more miss than hit for Kyle Busch (five DNFs, five top 5s), but did you see last week’s race? How about the week before that? You can pick against Kyle Busch, if you want to, but he is the hottest driver on the circuit right now. Jimmie Johnson has found victory lane three times at Pocono and has a whopping 17 top 10s. He will look to build off of his third place finish in the spring race. The next guy will probably be the highest owned – Martin Truex Jr. led a lot of laps and dominated the spring race. He has had some bad luck in July, but guess what? It’s August and he will be looking for the broom (sweep…get it). The last guy in this tier is Kurt Busch; he is not Kyle, moving on. Top Pick – Kevin Harvick ($11,700)
$9,000 Tier
This tier gets interesting. The two Penske drivers sit at the same price. Brad Keselowski is on a great run over the last three races (three top 10s), but I’m rolling with Joey Logano. Joey has a win at Pocono and has four top 10s in the last five races at this track; definitely worth the salary. Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin have great track history with 10 wins combined. My preference between the two is the car that starts further back. To round out the tier, we have Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth. I like Hendrick engines and the fact that Dale swept the Pocono race in 2014. Both drivers have consistently finished near the top this season (both have an avg. finish of 12th), but Dale has been the better DFS play (eighth-best avg. fppg). I’ll be exposing myself to Dale this week. Top Pick – Joey Logano ($9,400)
$8,000 Tier
Kasey Kahne’s $8,700 salary marks the median price this week. The 5 car has struggled over the last month, but he did finish 13th at Pocono. Kahne’s top 20 percentage at Pocono is an medicore 57%. He’s a place differential play only. Carl Edwards has been racing well, but his high qualifying positions have killed his DFS value. Over the last 10 races, he’s only averaging 25 fantasy points. If Edwards qualifies poorly, then maybe. His top 20 percentage at Pocono (71%) is better than Kahne’s. Kyle Larson has limited experience at Pocono and Indy, but he’s good on these flat tracks (avg. finish is eighth). Like the rest of the 8K drivers, place differential is the deciding factor, but Larson is worth consideration starting inside the top 10. Jamie McMurray’s success at Pocono mirror’s his teammate Kyle Larson’s. Jamie Mac has finished inside the top 10 at Pocono in his last three races. Honestly, I do not like this tier. Top Pick – Jamie McMurray ($8,100)
$7,000 Tier
This tier is full of value, last week most of these guys rounded out the low $9,000 range. Tony Stewart comes in at $7,900 and I wouldn’t pick him if he paid me $7,900. The argument is that he will be a great place differential play. Smoke won’t score lead or fast laps, and it’s highly unlikely that anyone below $9K will either. Smoke’s struggled with the 2015 rules package, but in his defense, he has the third highest top 10% at Pocono). Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman are place differential guys every week, and I like Newman’s ability to find the top 10 (10 in 2015). Don’t let a late race accident in the spring race turn you away, Newman was running inside the top 10 just like in seven of the eight Pocono races going back to 2011. Dillon, Menard, Biffle, and Ragan round out the lower half of this tier. I could honestly give two flips about any of these guys, but this will all come down to where they start. If any of these guys qualify in 30+ they are about a must play. Place differential aside, Menard is having the best fantasy season of the four (28.6 fppg), but Biffle has the best Pocono numbers (avg. finish of 10th over the last four Pocono races). I’ll let Race4thePrize finish shopping this week. Top Pick – Ryan Newman ($7,600)
$6,000 Tier
I’ll do the thrift shopping this week. I’m looking for a broken keyboard. The drivers on the high end of this tier are the old high 7s bargain bin ballers (Bayne, Mears, Patrick, Stenhouse, Almirola, and Allmendinger). All of these drivers are a step above the small teams in terms of engine power, but their biggest risk is that they are racing for points and a possible win – they’ll get into trouble in the turns and are probable wreckers. Danica and AJ are solid “no’s” finishing 30th or worse in seven of the combined eight races. Hornish looked miserable all weekend at the June Pocono race (three wrecks). Stenhouse had been racing well, but Indy and Pocono are his strong tracks (27th avg. fin). Almirola has seven top 25s at Indy/Pocono, but his last three at these tracks have been duds (38th, 43rd, 35th). Casey Mears is dependable. He’s averaging a 22nd place finish and has finished in the top 20 in back to back weeks on flat tracks. At Pocono, Mears’ avg. fin. is 19th. If Mears qualifies too close to the front, then you can drop down to the small teams in the $6,000, but they do not offer much salary relief anymore. Cassell has raced well over the last month; Gilliland is consistent at Pocono (low ceiling); Allgaier had pretty good Pocono/Indy numbers until last week (possible new package issue). If you go with a small team, then go with the biggest place differential opportunity. Top Pick – Casey Mears ($6,500).
$5,000 Tier
We are deep in it. These got the velcros. The $5K range is all about place differential punts. With the elimination of the pass differential statistic, you might down grade these plays, but it’s actually a benefit. Yeah, pass differential was crazy. At the June Pocono race, the best low tier place differential drivers had negative pass differential points. Yelley, Hill, Burton, and Kennedy have no business being on anyone’s team. Cole Whitt is not a home run pick, but he can score 20-35 pts (25 pts should be the median score). The Ginger Lion averages +10 place differential points at Pocono/Indy and is +7 in 2015 races. Aside from Whitt, Michael Annett (Allgaier’s teammate) generally has best equipment among this tier and his average finish at Pocono/Indy is 29th, but he needs to qualify 35 or worse to consider him over Whitt. The last time Alex Bowman was good was back in June at Pocono (finished 26th and 24 fantasy points). Reed Sorenson takes over Josh Wise’s former ride (29th at Pocono in June). Sorensen is a seasoned driver (19 Sprint Cup races at Indy/Pocono), but he hasn’t raced in the xfinity series in a couple years and has only one race in a 2015 rules package car. Travis Kvapil has qualified for one race this year: Pocono in the #32 car (+7 place differential, but only 16.75 pts). He returns to that car this week. One, if not a couple of these drivers will move through the field at Pocono. It’s not because they have a better car, but because of the car’s wrecking in front of them. Top Pick – Cole Whitt ($5,800)