Tuttle Time: June 24, 2013
The purpose of this article is to help you think outside the box. I’ve found that success (especially in GPP’s) usually isn’t found in the masses, but oftentimes in the hidden gems that nobody took the time to look at. Admittedly, a lot of the plays I provide will not make any sort of logical, or statistical sense, but sometimes your “gut” takes precedence over logic/statistics. While the plays I provide may not always be included in my lineup when all is said and done, I believe all of them should be given serious consideration. Before I get started, here are a few disclaimers/notes you will grow accustomed to in this new RG column:
Tuttle Disclaimers
- All plays are regardless of price, unless price is specifically mentioned. I’d love to breakdown each play per site/price, but let’s be honest – it’s not going to happen (at least all the time). RG Incentives offer Player Projections, which can help in that regard.
- All suggestions are pending weather. Weather is one of the most basic variables a grinder needs to take into consideration, but also one of the most overlooked. I generally like to stay safe when it comes to weather and playing both hitters and pitchers, but especially pitchers.
- Check lineups! Due to the when this article is being submitted, I don’t have the luxury of seeing lineups. Some plays may not be applicable due to a player not playing.
Now that the boring stuff is out of the way, it’s Tuttle Time.
Tuttle Time: June 24, 2013
1.) Joe Saunders – Rostering Saunders in any given situation is not for the faint of heart, however on a night with intriguing SP options few and far between, Saunders may be worth a play on multi-SP sites where you’re looking to save a salary. Bazooka Joe will be pitching at Safeco on Tuesday night, where he has actually been lights out this year. In 7 games, Saunders is 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA over 46.1 innings, and has a decent K-rate of 6.0. Saunders will face a hot hitting Pirates team, however Pittsburgh is significantly worse against lefties on the year. The Pirates are host to a .223 BA against left-handed pitchers, which places them 38th 28th (editor change made) in MLB. Not only are the Pirates not very good against lefties, they also strikeout a lot in general (5th most in the majors).
2.) Franklin Gutierrez (no, I’m not a SEA fan) – Gutierrez just returned from the DL on Saturday and has looked comfortable at the plate in his brief 2-game stay. In his 2 games since returning, Gutierrez is 2/6 with 1 HR and 1 2B. While I am high on Gutierrez, this play is even more so a fade of the ridiculously over performing Jeff Locke. While usually not an ideal strategy to fade one of the hotter SP of the season, this madness just simply cannot continue. Locke boasts a 2.01 ERA on the season, but his FIP (3.77) and xFIP (4.06), while not bad, suggest that his ridiculously low ERA is not truly indicative of his pitching on the year. It seems like Locke has also been pretty dang lucky on the year, as he is owner of a VERY low .231 BABIP.
3.) Kyle Kendrick – Similar to Saunders, Kendrick provides owners with a good 2nd or 3rd SP option on multi-SP sites. Kendrick faces the Padres on Tuesday night, who are 8th in MLB in SO, and are 20th in MLB with a .246 BA vs. righties. When Kendrick struggles, it is usually against lefties who post significantly better power numbers on Kendrick than do righties (.477 SLG vs. .405 SLG). The good thing for Kendrick? Padre lefties are atrocious. On Saturday night, the Padres ran out three lefties (Venable, Kotsay & Amarista) vs. Greinke and the Dodgers, and two switch hitters (Headley & Grandal). Perhaps the only two of those batters that would put any sense of fear in Kendrick would be Headley and Grandal, both of which are better against left-handed pitchers as is evidenced in their splits: Headley – .276/.257 BA, .422/.395 SLG; Grandal – .518/.392 SLG. While still not great, Kendrick has shown a slightly improved K-rate on the year (5.7) than he has over his career (4.8).
4.) Josh Reddick – I rostered Reddick on Sunday, and while Reddick reached value on FanDuel (2.5 pts.) I get the feeling that I was one game early. While Reddick has just a measly .216 BA and 3 HRs on the year, he has put together a good 10-game stretch (.316 BA) and looks to be seeing the ball well at the plate. Reddick gets a good match-up against the veteran Arroyo, who is over performing on the year, and is significantly worse against left-handed batters. Arroyo has put up a solid 3.13 ERA, but similar to Locke, his 4.11 FIP and 4.24 xFIP indicate he is not pitching as well as his ERA would suggest. Arroyo also holds one of the more drastic lefty/righty splits that you’ll see in a SP that has been in the league as long as him. Lefties host a .289 BA and .485 SLG against him, whereas righties host a significantly worse .240 BA and .389 SLG. Reddick also gets the benefit of facing Arroyo away from Great American Ball Park. In 5 road games this year, Arroyo is 1-4 with a 4.45 ERA.