Tuttle Time: June 28th, 2013
The purpose of this article is to help you think outside the box. I’ve found that success (especially in GPP’s) usually isn’t found in the masses, but oftentimes in the hidden gems that nobody took the time to look at. Admittedly, a lot of the plays I provide will not make any sort of logical, or statistical sense, but sometimes your “gut” takes precedence over logic/statistics. While the plays I provide may not always be included in my lineup when all is said and done, I believe all of them should be given serious consideration. Before I get started, here are a few disclaimers/notes you will grow accustomed to in this new RG column:
Tuttle Disclaimers
- All plays are regardless of price, unless price is specifically mentioned. I’d love to breakdown each play per site/price, but let’s be honest – it’s not going to happen (at least all the time). RG Incentives offer Player Projections, which can help in that regard.
- All suggestions are pending weather. Weather is one of the most basic variables a grinder needs to take into consideration, but also one of the most overlooked. I generally like to stay safe when it comes to weather and playing both hitters and pitchers, but especially pitchers.
- Check lineups! Due to the when this article is being submitted, I don’t have the luxury of seeing lineups. Some plays may not be applicable due to a player not playing.
Now that the boring stuff is out of the way, it’s Tuttle Time.
1) Jose Altuve – Overlooked by the Astros pure crappiness, Altuve has quietly been putting together a fairly solid year. When looking for “sleepers” on any given night, it is important to look for a guy that either has power potential, or stolen base potential – those players that have both will be priced that way, and not under-the-radar. As Altuve has a .377 SLG% in 2013, it’s obvious that Altuve fits into the latter category. On the year, Altuve has stolen 17 bases on 21 attempts, which places him 10th in the MLB. Jose has the perfect opportunity to climb the rankings today as he faces the battery of Jerome Williams and Chris Iannetta. While Williams hasn’t been horrible at keeping runners at bay this year, the same cannot be said about Iannetta. Iannetta is dead last in caught stealing % (10.9%) for qualified catchers. Opponents have stolen 49 bases in 55 tries. To give you an idea of how bad that is, Michael McKenry (while not enough PT to qualify) has a 11.1 CS%. That’s right, McKenry, whose only notoriety in the league is for having an atrocious arm, has a BETTER CS% than Iannetta. Needless to say, I’m expecting at least 2 SB from Altuve tonight, who will easily exceed value on his $3,200 price tag on FanDuel.
2) Matt Adams – This pick is a shout-out to Al and Dave who get aroused whenever this 6’3”, 260 lb. beast of a man is mentioned. I can only imagine a man this size has a huge dong….at least tonight. Adams is fairly cheap across the board and is heading into a perfect situation to stroke a dong, or two in Oakland. Adams is in possession of a career .824 OPS vs. RHP, and is performing even better this year, with an all around .876 OPS. Adams ability to mash in general, and even more so mash RHP, is perfect, as he faces Bartolo Colon who is significantly worse vs. LHB. Colon owns a career .782 OPS against LHB compared to a .685 OPS vs. RHB. I expect Adams to bat somewhere in the middle of the Cardinals order with plenty of RBI opportunities.
3) Chris Capuano – Capuano is a perfect play on multi-SP sites. When I checked late last night, Vegas had Capuano and the Dodgers listed as -141 favorites, and it looks like that number has already risen to -156. Since returning to the rotation on June 19th, Capuano has allowed 0 runs in 11 IP and 9 Ks. Capuano runs into an ideal situation Friday night as he should get plenty of run support, and faces an opposing team whose best hitters are LHB. In his career, Capuano has stymied LHB as they possess a measly .615 OPS off him. Capuano has also shown decent strikeout potential throughout his career, as is evidenced by his 7.5 SO/9.
4) Gerrit Cole – Cole and the Pirates are a huge favorite tonight (-182), indicating Cole could be in line for an automatic 4 pts. (win) on FanDuel. Cole is facing a Milwaukee Brewers team who are coming fresh off a game where they K’d 10 times versus Garza in just 7 innings. Cole has shown the ability to strikeout batters in his short stint in the Minors with an 8.2 SO/9. Cole is more of a borderline play on a site like StarStreet where he is sharply priced at $25,300, but on sites where he is still ridiculously underpriced (cough, FanDuel, cough…$4,500) you have to throw him in at least a couple of your DFBC Q lineups.