Gerrit Cole Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The four game divisional round slate kicks off this afternoon and includes four $10K pitchers (though just one on DraftKings), which we’ll cover here first. Most expensively and the only pitcher reaching $10K on bothi sites, Justin Verlander finished his season with a 27.8 K% and elite 4.4 BB% and 10 more infield flies (38) than barrels (28). His 1.75 ERA broke estimators (2.49 FIP to 3.23 xFIP) with a .240 BABIP and 80.5 LOB% that weren’t even the best marks of his career. Heck, the strand rate was actually his worst since he left Detroit, though still several points above his career average (77.4%). The Astros have one of the best defenses in baseball too (25 Runs Prevented). Verlander didn’t allow a single barrel in any of his last six starts. The arsenal was simple: four-seam, curveball, slider. All grade as very strong pitches, while Mariners (106 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP) were middle of the league against all three pitches post-break. Verlander is your second best projected today and either the third (FanDuel) or fourth (DraftKings) projected value.

No more than $300 less than Verlander on either site, Gerrit Cole allowed 12 home runs and 17 barrels (14.8%) over his last eight starts. He certainly had some contact profiles that the elite strikeout rate (32.4%, 26.1 K-BB%) helped mask. On the season, he allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE with a 3.47 FIP and 3.31 xERA just about confirming his 3.50 ERA, even if contact neutral estimators were about three-quarters of a run lower. That makes this an incredibly interesting matchup because the Guardians (104 wRC+) don’t strike out against RHP (17.3%), but hit for very little power as well (8.3 HR/FB). Cole faced them twice this year, both earlier in the season, throwing 6.2 shutout innings with nine strikeouts in the first outing, but allowing just two solo home runs over six innings, striking out six in the second. The Guardians were also the fifth worst offense against fastballs post-break (-0.5 wFB/C), which should play largely in Cole’s favor (four-seam 51.9%, -0.5 RV/100, 33.8 Whiff%, .313 wOBA, .300 xwOBA). Not that he actually uses the defense much, but the Yankees were one of the better units in the league this year (16 Runs Prevented) and even better than that now with Harrison Bader in the fold. Cole is the top projected pitcher on the board and value today (tied on FanDuel).

Third most expensive on FanDuel, but $1.9K less on DraftKings, although he only went beyond five innings in two of his last six starts, Max Fried did not allow more than two earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. The strikeouts can be a bit hit or miss in any given outing, but were above average on the year (23.2%) with an elite walk rate (4.4%), while dominating contact (51.2 GB%, 86.2 mph EV, 4.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.1% 95+ mph EV). His 2.48 ERA is closest to a 2.70 FIP with a 2.85 xERA not much higher with additional estimators ranging as high as a 3.31 SIERA. All five of Fried’s pitches (10%+) grade strongly by Statcast measures (RV), though the one the Phillies struggled with most since the break (-0.37 wCB/C) was the curveball (21.6%, -1.8 RV/100, 40.2 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .200). Though the Phillies smashed LHP overall (115 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 11.9 HR/FB), Fried faced them four times and all were Quality Starts except the last one (23 IP – 8 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 25 K – 97 BF). Fried is the third best projected arm on the board and tied for the top projected value on DraftKings (second on FanDuel).

Costing $10.1 K on FanDuel, but $8.7K on DraftKings, Julio Urias does just about everything well except generate ground balls (39.7%). He strikes out batters at an above average rate (24.1%), walks very few (6.0%) and limits the hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 30.4% 95+ mph EV). The Dodgers rarely let him hit the 95 pitch mark, but he still only failed to complete six innings 10 times. That being said, and the Dodgers have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented, .255 BABIP), but a 2.16 ERA is more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 2.81 xERA to a 3.81 xFIP. In fact, the xERA is his only estimator below three and a half. No matter how great the contact profile, a .229 BABIP and 86.6 LOB% are not sustainable long term and nine of his 51 runs were unearned. Urias pitched well against San Diego (103 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs LHP in four starts (24 IP – 4 ER – 3 HR – 10 BB – 18 K – 93 BF), although they did account for nearly one-quarter of his 41 walks. Urias is the fourth best projected arm on the board, but a bottom half of the board value.

Five $10K pitchers on a 14 game Friday night board (just one on DraftKings) with one more exceeding $9K on both sites. Gerrit Cole is the most expansive man on both sites. He has completed at least six innings in 13 straight, but has also allowed at least four runs in four of his last six. Except for one start against Seattle (three home runs, four barrels), this has been mostly a BABIP (.344) and strand rate (63.5%) problem, not that it makes Yankee fans any happier. His strikeout rate is down a bit over this span (28%), but so is his walk rate (4.7%). The elite peripherals have tempered a somewhat erratic contact profile in the past (Aaron Judge isn’ the only one who hits HRs at Yankee Stadium). On the season, Cole’s 3.41 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 2.80 DRA to a 3.20 FIP, as the 25.5 K-BB% suggests he’s still one of the top pitchers in the game. Oakland, both the park and offense (82 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP, 81 wRC+, 6.7 HR/FB at home), should be the cure to what ails him. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) still have complete faith in Cole, projecting him as the top arm tonight by a wide margin (more than five points on either site) and also a top four value on either site with only a debuting prospect projecting for more value on DraftKings. For an in-depth look at all of tonight’s high priced pitching options, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A 10 game Monday night slate features one-quarter of the board reaching $10K on FanDuel, though just two on DraftKings without anyone else above $9K on both sites. With Gerrit Cole, there’s a great chance you’re going to get at least six innings and seven strikeouts. He’s done that in 15 of his 23 starts this year. When a pitcher has a 26.5 K-BB%, you generally don’t worry too much about the contact profile, but Cole will also occasionally allow some bombs. He’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last 12 starts and a total of 15 over this span, which only includes 16 barrels (9.1%). With the 16.2 HR/FB, his 3.38 ERA is in line with a 3.25 FIP and not too far ahead of a 3.08 xERA with more contact neutral estimators below three. Cole is in a high upside spot at home against the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) as the only pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites. He is the top projected pitcher on the board by a quite a large margin. He’s also the top projected value on either site, which will likely also make him the most popular pitcher on the board. For more on a couple of top end Cole pivots, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Once again, a double header (in Cleveland) is the only difference between the DraftKings and FanDuel slate tonight with the former choosing to include these games, while the latter does not, making it either a 13 or 14 game board on Tuesday night. On either site, Gerrit Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the board and only one to reach $10K on both. He’s at least $400 more expensive than any other pitcher on either site. He’s allowed four long balls in his last two starts and multiple home runs in three of his last six, a span over which he’s allowing 13.3% Barrels/BBE. He’s also walked 11 of his last 100 batters, but just finished off a stretch of three of the most disciplined offenses in baseball (Houston, Boston and Cleveland). The strikeouts are still there at an elite rate (31.2%) and the only time he’s failed to complete six innings in his last 14 starts was that five home run massacre in Minnesota. Cole’s 3.26 ERA is now above, but within half a run of all non-FIP estimators and almost perfectly matches his 3.20 xERA. If the strikeout rate were to dip below 30% or if the walks continue to be an issue, the contact profile could become one too, but that’s not a concern tonight because the Reds have just an 85 wRC+, 24.1 K% and 10.3 HR/FB vs RHP this year. There does appear to be a decent 10+ mph wind blowing out to left field though. Cole is the top projected arm on the slate by a decent margin and also the third best projected value on either site. To see which of tonight’s remaining high priced arms project most favorably, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

After taking more than two months for the first full 15 game slate of the season to arrive, the second one comes at us less than a week later. With 30 pitchers on the board, just two (Gerrit Cole and Max Fried) exceed $10K on both sites, while two more reach that mark on FanDuel only (Logan Gilbert and Sean Manaea). In addition, Logan Webb, Shane Bieber and Tony Gonsolin each cost more than $9K on both sites. That’s a lot of pitching to cover, so let’s start at the top. Cole is the most expensive arm on DraftKings ($10.5K) and just $100 less on FanDuel. He allowed a career high five home runs to just 17 Twins faced in his last start. All he’d done before that was strike out at least nine in six of his previous eight starts with seven Quality Starts. He’s up to a 17.7 HR/FB with 11 of his 15 barrels (8.7%) going for home runs now. Not all of his home runs in his last start were barrels (four). With an elite 24.5 K-BB% and 15.2 SwStr%, all non-FIP estimators are much lower than his 3.63 ERA with a 3.21 xERA being the only one above three. We have to treat this like a blip on the radar for now. Tampa Bay is a park upgrade with a favorable matchup (95 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP). Although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, Cole is currently the top projected pitcher on either site and top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings by a decent margin. As one might imagine, his ownership projections for a full slate are fairly impressive at this point in time. The easy and maybe even the smart thing to do may be just to plug in Cole and forget about it, but GPP players need to differentiate somewhere. Are there any strong pivots among the other high priced arms? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Thursday night offers either a five (DraftKings) or six (FanDuel) game slate where the only $10K pitcher on either site is the only $10K pitcher on both sites in Gerrit Cole, who has struck out at least nine in six of his last eight starts, allowing more than two runs just twice in that span as well with a good portion of his contact on the ground (47.7%) and just an 87.6 mph EV. On the season, his 2.78 ERA is above, but within one-fifth of a run of all his estimators. The Twins have a 116 wRC+ at home, 113 wRC+ (23.8 K%) vs RHP and 147 wRC+ over the last seven days with some of the hitter friendliest weather on the slate along with a potentially hitter friendly umpire. Regardless, Cole is the top projected pitcher on the slate by PlateIQ, although projections are subject to change, and one of the better projected values, though not by a wide margin. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the one who’s simply too cheap on one site, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We start the week with a 10 game Monday night slate in which Gerrit Cole is the sole pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites. In fact, he’s more than $500 more expensive than any other pitcher on either site. Cole is also the top projected pitcher on the slate (PlateIQ). Though projections are fluid and can change, we probably shouldn’t expect this to. Cole has struck out at least nine in three of his last five starts, all five being Quality Starts, failing to record seventh inning outs in just one of those outings. He’s up to a 21.8 K-BB% on the season, but realize that five of his 12 walks came in bad start in Detroit or his walk rate would otherwise be elite. Estimators are very tightly packed around his 2.89 ERA, ranging from a 2.81 DRA to a 3.16 xERA. The Orioles have been about average against RHP (97 wRC+, 22.3 K%) and the lineup has lengthened with this weekend’s transactions (Mountcastle back, Rutschman up), but it’s certainly nothing Cole shouldn’t be able to handle. To read more about tonight’s top arms, including who makes for the best Cole pivot, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.