UCL Breakdown: Tuesday/Wednesday
After a week off, the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is back with four matches and some of Europe’s biggest clubs eager to punch their tickets to the quarterfinal stage.
First legs in these knockout rounds often tend to be cagey with teams ultra focused on feeling out the flow of the game and not making a mistake that might send them crashing out of the tournament. However, second legs can give us some of the most entertaining soccer around as teams often times have to alter tactics to make up goal deficits resulting in riveting end-to-end drama. We’ll try and consider that as we take a look at each game on this week’s DraftKings slate.
First, Tuesday’s matches…
Real Madrid (2) vs. Schalke 04 (0)
Real Madrid form: WWWDL
Schalke 04 form: LLDLW
Key stat: In La Liga, Real Madrid are averaging 2.8 goals per game on nearly 18 shots
Given the scoreline alone, this tie is effectively over with Real Madrid all but sealing their spot in the quarterfinals thanks to two away goals in the first leg in Germany. In Spain, Real are in somewhat of a crisis having drawn and lost their last two league games respectively and as a result have relinquished the top spot of La Liga. Carlo Ancelotti confirmed today that he will start his BBC frontline of Bale, Benzema and Cristiano even with the two-goal advantage. Ronaldo $12,800 rarely fails to deliver, averaging 26 FPTS per UCL match this season, but it would surprise me if he went the full 90 minutes as Ancelotti is surely eyeing their March 22nd showdown in the league against Barcelona. It is something to keep an eye on, especially if Real put the proverbial nail in Schalke’s coffin early. In the midfield, Real will likely shuffle things up a bit as Luka Modric $5,300 and Sami Khedira $4,400 are both available again after long injury lay offs, but don’t expect either to gain starting places. At the back, Marcelo $5,700 scored a stunner in Germany to give Real the 2-0 lead but right-back Dani Carvajal $3,900 is priced significantly lower for virtually the same average output (11.2 FPTS vs. 11.1 FPTS). Given Schalke’s recent form, it’s difficult to find any reliable plays from their squad. Tactically, them having to chase the game will play right into what Real loves to do which is scoring counter attacking goals likely making this a very one-sided affair.
FC Porto (1) vs. Basel (1)
FC Porto form: WDWWW
Basel form: DLWWW
Key stat: Jackson Martinez has accounted for 30% of Porto’s league goals this season
A late Danilo $4,900 penalty was enough to give Porto the vital away goal in the first leg to boost their chances of progressing over Basel. Porto have lost only once at home this season scoring 30 goals and only conceding a remarkable 3, but were dealt a huge blow in potent goal scorer Jackson Martinez $8,300 (22 goals in all competitions) picking up a groin injury last Friday. Keeping an eye on starting XIs will be key in his absence as Goncalo Paciencia $3,000 could be handed the opportunity to lead the Porto attack. Between the sticks, Porto GK Fabiano $4,900 has kept eight clean sheets since the start of the year in all competitions. Alex Sandro $2,800 was a hot play last time around at defense and should warrant a lot of looks considering his price tag. In contrast to the other match on Tuesday, the away side still has a great opportunity to advance. Needing a goal, I suspect Basel will try and slow the game early and stay in it for as long as possible before committing significant numbers to attack. Basel proved in the group stage to have a resolute defense and GK Tomas Vaclik $4,200 (11.2 FPTS) is the cheapest of the bunch at his position this week. Marco Streller $5,500 and Shkelzen Ghazi $5,100 are both candidates for Basel should they be able to get past the near impenetrable Porto defense.
And on Wednesday…
Bayern Munich (0) vs. Shakhtar Donetsk (0)
Bayern Munich form: DWWWW
Shakhtar Donetsk form: DWWD
Key stat: Shakhtar only managed one shot during the first leg
Given Bayern’s statistical dominance in the first leg (8 shots to Shakhtar’s 1 ; 64% possession), it was quite a feat that Shakhtar kept them off the score sheet. When you factor in that Bayern have scored 21 goals in their last four Bundesliga matches, it makes the feat all the more impressive. Some of that can be attributed to Bayern playing some of the game down a man after Xabi Alonso’s sending off (he misses the second leg through suspension as a result), but Bayern will feel confident in progressing as they head home to a stadium which has not seen them lose a game all season. For Bayern, the entire defensive unit (including Manuel Neuer $5,600) are all viable plays, especially the wing backs Juan Bernat $4,500 and Rafinha $3,800, who love to join the attack. From an attacking sense, Arjen Robben $9,600 and Thomas Muller $9,800 are almost always sure bets with Muller having scored twice this past weekend in the Bundesliga. You get the feeling that Shakhtar will likely be very defensive tactically, absorbing Bayern pressure early on and trying to hold on for dear life. Bayern should comfortably progress making it difficult to consider any of the Shakhtar team.
Chelsea (1) vs. PSG (1)
Chelsea form: WDDWW
PSG form: DWDWW
Key stat: Chelsea have scored 21% of their league goals from dead ball situations
Out of the four matches this week, this one has the makings of being one of those classic European nights with two heavyweights vying for a position in the quarterfinals. Some would make the argument that Chelsea have not looked as dominating as of late with a draw at home to lowly Burnley and an underwhelming 1-0 win away to West Ham. If it wasn’t for Thibaut Courtois’ $5,200 heroics in Paris, Chelsea could very well have been fighting an uphill battle in this tie Wednesday night. But, that is not the case and they come into this game with a valuable away goal thanks to who else but Branislav Ivanovic $5,000. Ivanovic’s goal scoring record for a defender is simply unprecedented considering he does not take penalties and it could very well be he or John Terry $3,600 that send the Parisians packing from a dead ball situation. Diego Costa $9,300 is in a bit of a rut not having scored since January 17th while on the other side Zlatan Ibrahimovic $9,500 chipped in a goal and assist in last weekend’s win over Lens. Eden Hazard $8,900 was held quiet in Paris thanks to some constant tackling and was only able to notch 7 FPTS. In terms of value plays from each side, Blaise Matuidi $5,700 has the tendency to turn up with a goal from midfield and Willian $6,400 could play the role of supplier if Chelsea are able to catch PSG on the break. Expect this to be a tight encounter with very little separating the two teams.