UCL DFS Targets: Tuesday, September 29th
It’s Matchday 2 for the UEFA Champions League and the first day of games gives us eight fixtures that are more than enticing, which could lead to a high-scoring day on DraftKings. The eight fixtures feature several home favorites and a few away favorites, so we should see some interesting lineups out there.
One of the biggest challenges is pinpointing which forward to target, without Messi available. With several big names in the slate, I can count 18 forwards that have a legitimate chance to score goals this week. So, we need value. I tried to pinpoint value at defense and midfield in order to give you the best chance at rostering the forwards you like. I narrowed down my 18 preferred forward to a paltry 12 strikers, and even then only wrote up four of them as truly unique options to target.
Goalkeepers
Yury Lodygin, Zenit St Petersburg $5,100 – Zenit played a tough match against Valencia on the road; they still managed to win in a tough 3-2 matchup and Lodygin didn’t manage to make saves on two out of the three shots he faced. However, facing a Gent team that is having to travel east to Russia means that Lodygin should be heavily favored in this one. He should have an easy time securing a win and potentially a clean sheet too.
Petr Cech, Arsenal $5,200 – The pricing for goalkeepers is tough this week, as there aren’t many mispricings since most of the keepers in safe spots are priced fairly high. Arsenal have been rotating keepers, with Ospina playing last week in the Capital One Cup, so it remains to be seen if he rotates with Cech in the Champions League matchup against Olympiacos. If David Ospina (ARS, $3,500) does indeed start, he immediately becomes the top keeper play of the day, as he’s a world class keeper and in a great home matchup against a weak Greek side that will struggle against the newly energized Alexis Sanchez and the Gunners.
Other Goalkeepers To Consider: Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich, $5,600), Marc-Andre Ter Stegen (Barcelona, $5,500), Oleksandr Rybka (Dynamo Kiev, $4,600)
Defenders
Nacho Monreal, Arsenal $4,800 – After going through two tough losses to Dinamo Zagreb and Chelsea, Arsenal finally got their act together with two wins in a row, against Tottenham in the Capital One Cup, and against Leicester in the EPL over the weekend. Monreal played a great game against Leicester, and if he gets the start again, he looks to continue his solid play again against Olympiakos at home. Monreal can cross the ball and can create chances for his teammates. If he does not start, make sure to target whoever starts in the full back position for the Gunners.
Igor Smolnikov, Zenit St Petersburg $3,600 – Would you roster a winger on a heavily favored team at home priced at $3,600? Of course you would. Smolnikov is just that guy, as he is potentially going to play on the right wing for the Russian squad hosting Gent of Belgium. With Shatov projected to miss the matchup on Tuesday, Smolnikov moves up the field and is expected to play as a winger in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Rostering Smolnikov, along with the GK and the two full backs for Zenit, gives you the potential exposure to a crossing midfielder, as well as four clean sheet bonuses if Zenit were to win their match. At this price, you can’t go wrong.
Jeremy Morel, Lyon $3,500 – This matchup is between two evenly matched teams, Lyon and Valencia, and it’s a match that can go either way. Morel provides the cheapest option for exposure to these two teams who absolutely love to spread the ball to the wings; last match, both sets of full backs threw in a combined 23 crosses and two goals. There will probably be no clean sheets here, but you can expect some positive points and the potential for a goal or an assist. Ultimately, the defender position for Champions League is tricky, as plenty of teams go through squad rotation; starting lineups are obviously very important when determining who to roster.
Other Defenders To Consider: Christophe Jallet (Lyon, $3,900), Lucas Orban (Valencia, $3,600), Joao Cancelo (Valencia, $4,300), Miguel Layun (Porto, $3,000), Danilo Silva (Dynamo Kiev, $4,000), Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich, $4,800), Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea, $5,900), Jordi Alba (Barcelona, $5,300), Dani Alves (Barcelona, $5,000)
Midfielders
Douglas Costa, Bayern Munich $8,000 – Bayern Munich are a superb team that has been on a roll both domestically and in the Champions League. Bayern haven’t lost a match anywhere since losing the German Super Cup to Wolfsburg on penalties. I expect that Bayern will enter this matchup with an attacking mentality and their formation will lead to success for their midfielders. With Robben still doubtful (he may start as he returned to practice), I would look to see where on the pitch Costa is situated. If he’s pushing forward then he’s a great play for a decent price that allows you to roster a couple more expensive players alongside him. Costa is very talented and has an eye on goal. He’s averaging 3.7 shots per game and has tallied a goal and five assists so far this season.
Eran Zahavi, Maccabi Tel Aviv $4,800 – Strikers slotted in the midfield are one of my favorite things to target on DraftKings. Zahavi is an Israeli striker who many have not heard of. However, he’s being compared to the greatest Israeli players to ever live and he’s led his squad to the glamorous group stage in the Champions League. This is the second Israeli team he has led to the group stages of the Champions League, so expect him to be excited to leave his mark in this group, especially when he plays at home, where the long travel to Israel is sure to play into the hands of this Israeli squad. MTA aren’t going to make it out of this group, but they will have a fighting chance in their home games, and players like Zahavi have a chance to prove themselves on the biggest club stage in the world which may earn them a shot at a big name European club.
Miralem Pjanic, Roma $4,500 – Targeting teams away from home is never a positive expected value move. However, when the opponent is BATE Barisov of Belarus, the choice isn’t that bad. Roma head into this matchup missing some key offensive contributors including Totti and Dzeko; as such the attack will center around Salah, Gervinho and Iturbe, who are all listed at forward. If you look at the midfielders for this team, Pjanic actually takes a good amount of shots for the Italian squad; 3.2 shots a game and he has two goals in his name so far this season. He’s a good safe play that has upside as a goalscorer or an assist man.
Other Midfielders to Consider: Danny (Zenit, $7,300), Eden Hazard (Chelsea, $10,200), Willian (Chelsea, $6,100), Hector Herrera (Porto, $5,900), Mathieu Valbuena (Lyon, $5,400), Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich, $5,300)
Forwards
Robert Lewandowski, Bayern Munich, $9,900 – If you don’t happen to follow soccer on days that don’t have a DraftKings contest, you probably should. Last Tuesday, Lewandowski came off the bench for Bayern Munich and scored five goals in nine minutes to flip the game upside down and hand Wolfsburg a heavy defeat after being up 1-0. Then, on Saturday, Lewandowski managed to score two more goals en route to a 3-0 away win for Bayern. Will his goalscoring streak continue against a Dinamo Zagreb team that is coming off a Champions League victory over Arsenal? Regardless, Lewandowski is in excellent form and is extremely talented with a floor of multiple shots taken, and he has multiple-goal upside.
Hulk, Zenit St Petersburg $9,300 – After a two-goal performance that saw his price rise $800 and a 34 point performance on the road in Spain, Hulk is back home and ready to smash. Expect Hulk to be highly owned since his price isn’t too prohibitive, especially with all the value we pointed out elsewhere. It’s very easy to fill your roster with three 8K+ guys and a top shelf goalkeeper and still have some salary left over. Hulk should also be highly owned, which puts him in cash game territory, as he will have shots and fouls drawn floor with some goals and assist upside. Zenit are heavily favored as mentioned earlier in this piece, so expect a solid performance from the Brazilian forward.
Theo Walcott, Arsenal $7,500 – The Arsenal forward is in good form these days, and between him and Alexis Sanchez, they managed four goals on 15 shots last Saturday. Walcott is much cheaper than Sanchez, so he’ll be an easier target in your lineups. Giroud is suspended due to a red card last time out in the Champions League. With Olympiakos being a weaker side, expect Arsenal to control possession. Having any of their offensive minded players is a good spot to be in and the Gunners should have themselves a good game on Tuesday. With Walcott leading the line, he should get the most opportunities to score and take shots; for such a low price, he’s a great play.
Vincent Aboubakar, Porto $7,400 – As a GPP special, Aboubakar makes a great play against a Chelsea team that is very up and down recently. With the odds seeming to be favor of a close match between these two, with Chelsea slightly favored, I wouldn’t be surprised if Aboubakar manages a goal or more.
Other Forwards to Consider: Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal, $10,700), Neymar (Barcelona, $10,500), Luis Suarez (Barcelona, $10,400), Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich, $10,000), Diego Costa (Chelsea, $9,700), Gervinho (Roma, $8,200), Hakan Calhanoglu (Beyer Leverkusen, $7,500), Andriy Yarmolenko (Dynamo Kiev, $5,200)
Feel free to come back at me in the comment section and let me know what you think. You can also find me on Twitter – DFS_Hambazaza is the handle – and I’ll gladly answer questions leading up to the lineup lock. Good luck!