UCL DFS Targets: Wednesday, September 30th
Yesterday was a great day of soccer, and with the first set of matches of this week’s UCL fixtures in the books, we can turn around and focus on Wednesday’s slate. It’s one that doesn’t seem quite as forward heavy, but still requires us to make a big decisions that will affect our lineup construction on DraftKings.
To Ronaldo or not to Ronaldo? I think there is merit in both strategies, and there are great teams you can build with either route. Personally, I’ll probably build four teams today and will likely “Ronaldo” half of them. What’s your strategy? Let me know in the comments, and if you want some more help, you can find me on twitter!
Good luck!
Goalkeepers
Keylor Navas, Real Madrid $5,600 – The biggest favorite of the day is Real Madrid on the road to Malmo. This pick scares me simply because Madrid are on the road, but when the oddsmakers put so much weight behind a team, I cannot dare to argue with them, so I’ll accept it at face value and put Navas in there as the top goalkeeper for the slate. Real have actually played superb football this season, allowing only a single goal across all competitions, and they will look to continue that run of dominance again on Wednesday.
Igor Akinfeev, CSKA Moscow $4,900 – This is a GPP play, as Akinfeev has not kept a clean sheet in 32 straight Champions League appearances. Some may say he’s “due” for a regression, while some may point that this is his skill set and keeping a clean sheet in Europe is just too difficult for this squad. I don’t know which camp I fall into, but I do know that CSKA are a surprising favorite against the Dutch champions, and I wouldn’t put it past them to squeak by with a 1-0 victory.
Other Goalkeepers To Consider: Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid, $5,400), Gianluigi Buffon (Juventus, $5,000), Salvatore Sirigu (PSG, $3,700, if he starts), Sergio Rico (Sevilla, $4,500)
Defenders
Dani Carvajal, Real Madrid $4,300 – The Real Madrid defender is one of the safest plays on the board at defense. With his squad seemingly destined for the clean sheet (though, anything could happen), Carvajal should expect to find himself crossing the ball a few times. Last time out he had 11 points with five of them coming from crosses alone. Expect that kind of floor from him on most games, and especially in ones in which his team is heavily favored like on Wednesday.
Gregory Van Der Wiel, Paris St Germain $4,200 – The PSG full back had nine crosses, two fouls drawn and a shot last time out. This week with the French squad visiting Shakhtar Donetsk (who play well at home), the task will be a bit tougher, but manageable. I wouldn’t expect nine crosses again, however, a good performance is very possible, especially considering that the Paris squad is expected to win. One concern of note is that VDW may not start in favor of Serge Aurier ($3,800), who is returning from injury. If that’s the case, I won’t hesitate to put Aurier in my lineups in place of Van Der Wiel while pocketing the savings to spend elsewhere.
Filipe Luis, Atletico Madrid $3,700 – The trend is to target defenders from teams you think have a chance at an easy victory. Atletico Madrid are hosting Benfica at home, and should have no trouble winning this matchup. Filipe Luis may be familiar to some of you as he was on Chelsea last season and was a consistent value play on days that he got the start. He can deliver a small amount of crosses, shots and can draw fouls. His skills primarily rest in his defensive ability, which serves us no use here in daily fantasy. However, Luis is cheap enough and if paired with the correct goalkeeper can gather the bonus points you need to jump further up the standings.
Other Defenders To Consider: Juanfran (Atletico Madrid, $4,600), Mario Fernandes (CSKA Moscow, $3,500), Kirill Nababkin (I like saying his name, CSKA Moscow, $3,200), Matteo Darmian (Manchester United, $4,400), Ricardo Rodriguez (Wolfsburg, $4,300)
Midfielders
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City, $6,400 – De Bruyne has looked like the best playmaker on City’s squad since he arrived there earlier this season; he has also scored goals in his last two matches, and while we don’t chase goals, we do chase players who have the ball at their feet and create for their teammates and find themselves in positions to score. M’Gladbach will be a tough team for City to handle and I expect there to be some goals here. Ever since City lost to Juventus, they’ve been allowing goals in every single match, including four to Tottenham last weekend. M’Gladbach is a tough team, but they aren’t stopping a lot of goals this season. De Bruyne comes from the German league so he has familiarity with this German squad and should be able to exploit them no matter what the game flow dictates.
Angel Di Maria, Paris Saint Germain $10,200 – If you happen to want to spend all that salary you’re saving at midfield, Angel Di Maria is the place to go. He’s played great for Paris ever since moving there from the Red Devils and has seen his success translate to the Champions League, with a goal in his first match there with his new club. This week they take on Shakhtar Donetsk, and while the match is away, I expect that PSG should have their way with this Ukrainian squad that isn’t as good as it was last season after it lost several players to big clubs. However, even if they manage an early goal against the French, expect ADM to push the ball and try to bring it back; that could only serve to motivate the visitors to try to win this game to keep pace with an expected Real Madrid win in the other match in the group.
Reyes, Sevilla $5,800 – He had seven crosses and four shots last match against M’Gladbach at home. He’s headed on the road now against a Juventus squad that, as mentioned earlier, is missing a good chunk of their defensive powers and could be vulnerable at the back, especially if they have to play out of position or out of formation. There is lots of value on this Sevilla team and they’ll be underowned, so make sure to watch out for starting lineups since Reyes’ spot on the roster is not guaranteed.
Other Midfielders To Consider: Memphis (Manchester United, $9,900), Isco (Real Madrid, $5,500), Zoran Tosic (CSKA Moscow, $4,600), Davy Propper (PSV Eindhoven, $4,800), Yaya Toure (Manchester City, $8,300), Julian Draxler (Wolfsburg, $6,000)
Forwards
Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid $13,500 – This is an absurd price. He’s worth it though, as he’s undeniably the best player in the world who is currently not injured (pour one out for Messi.) Expect that he’ll be at least 25-50% owned, though with all the value we have, fitting him onto a team you like isn’t impossible, so he might be towards the upper end of that. If you’ve got two teams, split them, but expect that you’re just throwing money away with the one without Ronaldo in it. I predict a good performance and possibly a few goals from the striker.
Seydou Doumbia, CSKA Moscow $5,700 – In the category of “can score goals and cheap enough to fit Ronaldo”, I think Seydou Doumbia leads the way for Moscow. With four goals and three assists, Doumbia is a high risk, high reward play. He doesn’t get many shots, but he does find the back of the net often. He came off the bench last time out, but reports I’ve seen so far indicate that he’ll be starting for Moscow at home on Wednesday. If he doesn’t start, look to pivot to Ahmed Musa, who is priced at $5,100 and has five goals in the Russian Premier League so far; he also averages 2.1 shots a game and plays well at home.
Antoine Griezmann, Atletico Madrid $8,000 – There are plenty of great forward options to use at a high price. Griezmann is chief among them and he’s coming off a two-goal performance on the road against Galatasaray, and with Atletico hosting Benfica at home, expect that Griezmann will get more opportunities at a goal.
Other Forwards To Consider: Karim Benzema (Real Madrid, $9,800), Anthony Martial (Manchester United, $7,500), Alvaro Morata (Juventus, $6,000), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City, $11,000), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United, $10,000), Angel Correa (Atletico Madrid, $4,500), Edinson Cavani (PSG, $9,800), Bas Dost (Wolfsburg, $8,900), Ahmed Musa (CSKA, $5,100)