UCL Round of 16 Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
After last week’s four matches that yielded 22 goals, it will be tough for this week to live up to the excitement of the first half of Round of 16 second legs. We saw a little bit of everything last week and this week brings us four ties still very much in the balance.
It’s time to take a look at the UCL slate this week and what to look for on DraftKings.
Atletico Madrid (0) vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1)
Atletico Madrid form: WLDDD
Bayer Leverkusen form: WWWWW
Key stat: Atletico have scored 20 headed goals this season and 43% of their La Liga goals come from set pieces
Two clubs surprisingly trending in very different directions, Diego Simeone’s Atleti have only picked up six points from their last four La Liga matches and find themselves in fourth in the league table. In the three La Liga matches since Atleti’s first leg defeat in Germany to Bayer, they’ve only managed to find the back of the net once. Meanwhile, Bayer have scored eight in three Bundesliga games and are full of confidence heading to Madrid. To make matters worse for Atletico, they know they need at least one goal (and assuming Bayer doesn’t add an away goal) and will have to do it without lynchpins Diego Godin and Tiago (both suspended). The good news for them, however, is that they’ve kept 12 clean sheets in La Liga this year, something that will be vital to their chances of progressing.
At $4,900, Atletico GK Moya comes into play as do the candidates to make up the back four. Of note is Juanfran $5,500, who has six assists from right back in the UCL and La Liga, but the price on him is a tad high. This game feels like it has the makings of a scrappy, chippy and ugly encounter, so don’t expect tons of offense on Tuesday afternoon. Antoine Griezmann $7,000 is a decent price but Atletico are known to get goals from nontraditional sources. Arda Turan $5,300 may get a lot of play in MF because of his price. Hakan Calhanoglu $7,500 is the best bet from the Bayer side, as he has hit double digit FPTS in five of seven matches since the group stage began.
Monaco (3) vs. Arsenal (1)
Monaco form: WDLWW
Arsenal form: LWWWW
Key stat: Monaco have conceded seven goals at home in 14 Ligue 1 matches
Arsenal will try to do the improbable in Monaco Tuesday night as they go into this second leg in a 3-1 hole. The result in London left the Arsenal faithful shocked as they celebrated what they thought was a kind draw. The good news for the Gunners is that their form since the Monaco defeat has been superb, so maybe scoring three on the road isn’t completely out of the question. Monaco will likely sit back and absorb Arsenal pressure looking to counter when the Gunners have significant men pushed forward. Monaco have only scored 32 goals in Ligue 1, which has them around mid table in that category. Where they succeed is on the defensive end, where they’ve only conceded a league-best 20 goals. What we learned about Monaco in the first leg was that they are organized at the back and take advantage of the opportunities given to them.
I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Arsenal won, but the question that remains is how many times they find the back of the net. Aaron Ramsey $5,200 had a great game against West Ham last weekend with a goal and an assist and is one of my favorite plays from the MF position this week. Santi Cazorla’s $7,400 form has dipped a bit in his last four games and Mesut Ozil $7,600 has been very up and down since a good three-game stretch in early February. Up front, Olivier Giroud $8,900 has scored in his last three EPL games, but I think this game will see a good performance from Alexis Sanchez $10,100. This game feels like one in which Arsenal will give it their absolute everything. You can almost envision them pouring everyone forward at the end to try and nip the winning goal…but likely falling just short.
Barcelona (2) vs. Manchester City (1)
Barcelona form: WWWWW
Man City form: WLLWL
Key stat: Leo Messi has contributed to 46 of Barcelona’s 78 La Liga goals
If Arsenal have an improbable task on Tuesday night, Manchester City needing a win with two goals at the Camp Nou can be labeled impossible. These two clubs couldn’t be going in more opposite directions as of late and the papers in the UK have already begun filling up with who will replace Manuel Pellegrini once he gets the sack later this year. City were held goalless by lowly Burnley this past weekend in a shock defeat while Barcelona are only a week removed from putting six past Rayo Vallecano in La Liga.
Both Leo Messi $13,000 and Luis Suarez $9,700 are sizzling with their form and it was Suarez who proved to be the top play in the first leg at the Etihad. Barcelona clearly have vast attacking talent but it’s their back four that should get a decent look given Man City’s results as of late. Dani Alves $5,000 likes to shoot forward and join the attack from the right flank and Pique $3,300 has six goals to his name in all competitions this season. Ter Stegen $5,100 will likely get the start between the sticks for Barca and is one of the top GK plays this week. For City, it’s difficult to predict any good performances given recent results but Sergio Aguero $9,400 is at his lowest price of 2015 and if City do get on the scoresheet, it could very well be through Aguero.
Borussia Dortmund (1) vs. Juventus (2)
Borussia Dortmund form: LWWDD
Juventus form: WDLWW
Key stat: Dortmund had 12 shots to Juventus’ 10 in the first leg and also maintained 54% possession
Thanks to Marco Reus’ away goal in Turin during the first leg, this tie is one of the more intriguing and tougher games to call this week. The different avenues of progression are basically summed up as Dortmund can go through with a 1-0 home win or Juventus can seal their passage with a draw in Germany. With that, I can see Juventus conceding loads of possession to Dortmund and trying to make life difficult for them knowing that they need a goal. Dortmund are at their best when they’re pressing opponents mercilessly all over the pitch and turning them over into quick fire attacks.
For Juve, world class MF Paul Pogba’s $5,800 impact is often not seen is DFS competition, however he is averaging 9 FPTS throughout his UCL campaign and chipped in an assist in the first leg. Alvaro Morata $6,200 got the winner in the first leg and could be a nice flex play if Juve are able to catch Dortmund on the break. From the Dortmund side, I’ll say what I said the first time around which is keeping up with Marco Reus’ $9,100 pace will be a very tough ask for Juve. Given that Reus takes care of penalty duties as well, he is a good play for Dortmund and should provide returns.