UCL Semifinals Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
The final four of Europe’s most prestigious cup competition returns this week and there are an endless amount of narratives surrounding both ties but just the mere thought of having a quartet of true European heavyweights makes this one of the best semifinal rounds of recent memory. For context, Bayern Munich and Juventus have already wrapped up their respective domestic league titles and in Spain only two points separate Barcelona and Real Madrid as they enter the home stretch of games. If that doesn’t do it for you, how about Barcelona’s own son, Pep Guardiola, returning to the Nou Camp only to occupy the touchline of the enemy. Or the fact that we could have a Clasico final in Berlin squaring off Messi vs Ronaldo (the last time this happened, Ronaldo was wearing a Man United shirt in the 2009 final). It should be a fascinating set of games to say the least.
Ernestiko previews both semifinals, covering how each club arrives to their respective match and what to look for in strategizing for DraftKings offerings this week.
Tuesday – Juventus vs. Real Madrid
Most years, this matchup would be the headliner but the rematch of the 1998 UEFA Champions League Final will take a backseat this time around to the Barcelona/Bayern Munich affair.
Both Juve and Real Madrid advanced to the semifinals off of 1-0 aggregate scorelines having been the far more superior teams in each quarterfinal. Domestically, the two are in different situations as Juve has been in firm control of their league (they wrapped up the league title this past weekend) for months now while Real are fighting tooth and nail to stay within striking distance of rivals, Barcelona. Real are unbeaten since March and have navigated through their injury crisis admirably (although having a bagillion dollar payroll helps) but head to Turin still without the services of Karim Benzema and Luka Modric. It’s a shame that we won’t be able to see the midfield battle of Modric against Juve star Paul Pogba(at least for the first leg), but Real will have been boosted by the return of Gareth Bale to the squad last weekend. Before his hat trick against Sevilla, Cristiano Ronaldo was in a relative slump having only netted once in five games but that seems to have been remedied and by the looks of it, he is starting to form a nice partnership with Javier Hernandez. While Real are certainly favorites to reach their second consecutive final, it will not come easy especially given the absence of their midfield general, Modric.
The two question marks are whether Carlo Ancelotti sticks with Hernandez in the place of Karim Benzema up front (he almost certainly will) and if Sergio Ramos occupies a central midfield role for the third time in as many weeks. Outside of Pogba’s absence, Juventus come in relatively healthy and will likely crowd the midfield as a way of keeping Cristiano Ronaldo from running into space and also unsettling the creative likes of James Rodriguez and Toni Kroos. Carlos Tevez leads the attack and has been brilliant this season in both Serie A and the Champions League. He is partnered by Real Madrid castoff, Alvaro Morata, who has been a hot value play since the knockout stage began. In the midfield, Arturo Vidal is the “do everything” wrecking ball to Andrea Pirlo’s finesse, classical style of play.
Conclusion: Real are rightful favorites but this will not be easy for them. Expect the game in Turin to yield few (if any) goals leaving the tie up for grabs for both clubs when they meet in Madrid next week.
Five to watch: Cristiano Ronaldo ($11,500), Carlos Tevez ($7,700), Alvaro Morata ($5,000), Dani Carvajal ($3,700), Gianluigi Buffon ($4,300)
Wednesday – Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich
On to the matchup that has everyone’s mouth watering. The main headline here is the aforementioned return of Pep Guardiola to his home. Here, we’re talking about a man born in Barcelona, bred at Barcelona, led the club to glory as both a player and coach and now viewed as a deity among the majority of its fans. Only Pep would show up midweek to his personal seats at the Nou Camp to watch his former club play in the Champions League and marvel at what Lionel Messi can do with a football as if he had never seen it before.
Now on to the men actually battling it out on the pitch. These clubs arrive to the semifinals in very different places both on the domestic and injury fronts. Barcelona have been simply sensational and there is really no other way to describe it. Their three pronged attack of Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez are firing on all cylinders and their defensive record is the best in La Liga. Ready yourselves for this stat – since the first leg of the quarterfinal vs PSG, Barcelona have outscored opponents 23-1 in all competitions. By the way, that only encompasses six games. In their last two games in La Liga, they’ve won by a combined 14-0. And if that wasn’t enough, Andres Iniesta is finally playing his best football of the season.
For Bayern, the story is not as promising. After the second leg demolition of FC Porto in their respective quarterfinal, Bayern were bounced out of the German Cup by Borussia Dortmund and in the process lost Arjen Robben for the season and Robert Lewandowski to a multitude of facial injuries after a head on collision late in the match. Lewandowski is prepared to play thanks to the protection of a mask but there are no signs on whether he will start the match on Wednesday or not. The good news for Bayern is that Javi Martinez has returned after being out since August which surely gives Pep a versatile option in both the back four and central midfield. Some reports indicate that with his big frame and skill on the ball he may even occupy a forward role although that would definitely be a surprise. If there is a silver lining for Pep, it is that his central midfield is the healthiest it has been this season with Martinez, Thiago, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm all back in action and performing well in most cases.
Conclusion: On form and health, Barcelona come in as favorites. We’ll see how Pep lines up against his former club but something tells me he will take a pragmatic approach and pack the pitch with his wealth of ball playing central midfielders and try to control possession. In recent games, Messi has been as brilliant distributing as he’s been scoring goals so Pep will want to make sure his former pupil sees as little of the ball as possible. Bayern’s back line has been shaky of late with Manuel Neuer and co. making some uncharacteristic mistakes and the assassin that is Luis Suarez could capitalize on that. Barcelona should be favored to take a narrow lead to Munich next week.
Five to watch: Lionel Messi ($11,800), Luis Suarez ($8,600), Manuel Neuer ($3,800), Andres Iniesta ($6,000), Thomas Muller ($8,700)