UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic Beat Down (Undercard)
Welcome back to the UFC 198 Beat Down, this time around I have a ton of undercard analysis for ya!
If you missed my main card analysis and want to check it out, click here. Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for live content and hot takes. We’ll be releasing an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast so stay tuned!
Onto the fights!
UNDERCARD
Warlley Alves vs. Bryan Barberena
Fight Odds: Alves -620, Barberena +450
Odds to finish: -205
Salaries: Alves 10.8k, Barberena 8.6k
Weight Class: 170
You might remember Bryan Barberena from his upset victory against the golden boy Sage Northcutt, and for his disservice to the UFC, he now gets a horrible matchup against Warlley Alves in Brazil.
Barberena is a tough dude and that’s probably his best attribute, along with his activity. He’s not very athletic compared to the UFC’s elite and his technical skills aren’t good enough to compete with the upper tier.
Alves is one of the best prospects in the 170 lb. and he is a killer, which is why the odds are stacked in his favor. He’s certainly a more powerful striker than Barberena on the feet, and he’s a much better, stronger and explosive grappler. There’s really nowhere in this fight that I think Barberena has the edge.
With that said, Alves is super expensive and many who pay up that much will just go all the way to Cyborg. I’m not sure that Alves will be heavily owned for that reason, but I think he makes a fine play if you need someone in that range and can’t afford Cyborg. The biggest concern I have with Alves is that he can be inactive at times, and Barberena puts up a decent enough pace that I could see him gaining momentum as the fight progresses.
But I also think Barberena will be outclassed in this fight. Alves has already fought and beaten much better fighters in Colby Covington and Alan Jouban, and a step down against Barberena in his home country smells like a finish to me. He’s a high upside GPP play and cash viable as well.
Fight Prediction: Alves by Guillotine, RD 1
Demian Maia vs. Matt Brown
Fight Odds: Maia -330, Brown +270
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Maia 10.5k, Brown 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
This fight between Demian Maia and Matt Brown is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and according to Matt Brown himself, it’s a horrible stylistic matchup for him. I tend to agree, and I don’t love him in this fight.
Maia is one of the best submission grapplers in the world and in the UFC but he’s proven to be an extremely effective wrestler as well. Many grapplers lack the ability to get the fight to the floor, but Maia has taken down and dominated many decent grapplers and I think he can do the same to Brown.
If we take a deeper look into Brown’s record, he’s lost 13 times and nine of those have been by submission. None of his submission losses are against fighters better than Maia, we know that much. He’s also lost more recently to Johnny Hendricks who took him down over and over. Because of clear grappling weakness, Maia is a considerable favorite, but because there are so many large favorites on this card, his price is reduced to 10.5k, which makes him a very viable tournament option in my book.
I’m a little concerned about his prospects in cash because he doesn’t land a ton of significant strikes and he’s capable and willing to grind out a decision from top, which means a low scoring fantasy night. But the upside is there for a quick submission, and I don’t think he’ll want to play around with Brown on the feet, so I expect him to get a takedown early.
Brown has upside if he can keep the fight on the feet, but I’m really not confident he’s capable of that so I’ll probably fade him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Maia by RNC, RD 2
Thiago Santos vs. Nate Marquardt
Fight Odds: Santos -420, Marquardt +335
Odds to finish: -365
Salaries: Santos 10.9k, Marquardt 8.5k
Weight Class: 185
Nate Marquardt pissed me off when he knocked out C.B. Dolloway in his last bout, but just like Bigfoot Silva, I will continue to target against him. He’s not quite in the same boat as Silva where any one punch will literally put him unconscious, but he definitely cannot take a big shot. What he can do, unlike Silva, is still throw decent leather but I don’t think Thiago Santos will be as susceptible as Dolloway was.
Another huge favorite, Santos is the second highest priced fighter on the card, and I think many will just pay up for Cyborg if they get the chance. I really like Santos as a second-tier option and I think he has equal upside with a high floor.
Santos most recently beat undefeated Elias Theodorou and did enough to keep the fight standing where he excels and can throw heavy shots. He has excellent kicks, and I think he’ll be able to damage Marquardt early and often. If worst comes to worst and Santos can’t knock him out early, I still expect him to win by decision because he’s the more prolific striker and this fight should stay on the feet.
Target Santos is both tournaments and cash games.
Fight Prediction: Santos by TKO, RD 1
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Yancy Medeiros
Fight Odds: Trinaldo -245, Medeiros +205
Odds to finish: -125
Salaries: Trinaldo 10k, Medeiros 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
Francisco Trinaldo makes for a really interesting tournament target in my opinion because he’s well priced, and has sneaky good upside. I normally wouldn’t target him at all because I don’t think of him as a finisher, but he’s looked really solid as of late, most recently out-striking Chad Laprise and Ross Pearson.
Medeiros has shown to be very hittable in the UFC, and if Trinaldo wants to keep the fight standing which I think he will, I definitely can see a potential finish here. Vegas has Trinaldo at +174 to win inside the distance which is pretty decent for a fighter of his skillset.
Medeiros has a good submission grappling game but I don’t think he can do much to Trinaldo, so his best bet is to probably outstrike him, which I don’t see being an easy task. More than likely, Trinaldo grinds his way to a unanimous decision but I think he has enough upside to target as a low-owned GPP option. I’m fine with targeting Medeiros just because of his significant striking rate, but I don’t see a ton of upside for him.
Fight Prediction: Trinaldo by Decision
John Lineker vs. Rob Font
Fight Odds: Lineker -160, Font +140
Odds to finish: -195
Salaries: Lineker 9.7k, Font 9.7k
Weight Class: 135
Coming off one of the fights of the year against Francisco Rivera, Jonh Lineker gets another great stylistic matchup in Rob Font. From a basic odds standpoint, Lineker is a -160 favorite with a +126 prop to win inside the distance, and he’s only 9.7k. There’s clearly odds value on him which makes him viable in all formats.
Font is coming off two impressive TKOs in his two UFC fights, and I’ve heard a lot of chatter about him in this fight. He’s a good striker, technical, I’ll give him that. And his wrestling is decent, but I’m not sure what kind of upside he possesses.
For one, fighting guys like Joey Gomez on short notice vs. John Lineker in Brazil is quite different and Lineker is clearly the toughest matchup he’s ever faced. In 33 pro bouts, Lineker has never been knocked out, and while it COULD happen, I don’t know that I’m willing to invest much hoping that this is the first time.
Font also has the reach and length advantage and in theory that gives him an advantage, but Lineker is going to be in his face from the first bell and I don’t think it’s likely he can keep Lineker at range for 15 minutes. The most upside I see for Font is him landing a good amount of significant strikes and earning a decision, so somwhere around 70 points. Is that worth it in tournaments? Ehhh, I’m not so sure, and especially for his price, I don’t think I’ll have much exposure to him.
Lineker clearly has the upside for a first round KO and he’s shown to strike at a high pace for 15 minutes, so even in a decision, I’d rather take him than Font. I don’t think he’s a lock to win and I prefer him in tournaments, but you won’t find much more upside for the price, so he’s viable in all formats.
Fight Prediction: Lineker by TKO, RD 2
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Patrick Cummins
Fight Odds: Cummins -255, Nogueira +215
Odds to finish: +110
Salaries: Cummins 9.8k Nogueira 9.6k
Weight Class: 205
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira has been fighting since 2001 and he’s on the tail end of his career, which usually makes me lean toward his opponents, and Patrick Cummins is included in that category.
This is, however, an interesting fight from a DFS perspective because while I think you have to pick Cummins to win, Little Nog might make for the better fantasy target. Cummins is an elite wrestler and he’s translated that well into MMA, but he’s still green as a martial artist.
Cummins will undoubtedly try to get this fight to the ground early, and he’ll probably be successful. If he can control Little Nog on the ground and take him down over and over, he’s going to win a decision with a small chance of finishing by ground-and-pound. More than likely, Nogueira will be able to use is superior jiu-jitsu to get back up early in the fight, and that’s where this becomes interesting.
Nogueira isn’t the best striker in the world or anywhere close to it, but he’s a pretty good boxer and Cummins has a very weak chin. If the fight stays standing for long, it wouldn’t shock me to see Nogueira clip Cummins and put him out. For the price, I think Nogueira is a solid tournament play, but I’m worried about his cash game prospects because he could be on his back for 15 minutes.
I don’t think Cummins is worth heavy exposure because in a decision win, he’s unlikely to land many significant strikes, and there are other fighters in his price range whom I’d rather pay for.
Fight Prediction: Cummins by Decision
Sergio Moraes vs. Luan Chagas
Fight Odds: Moraes -460, Chagas +365
Odds to finish: -350
Salaries: Moraes 10.7k, Chagas 8.7k
Weight Class: 170
Sergio Moraes is one of the more frustrating fighters to watch and analyze because he’s such a talented submission grappler, but he absolutely refuses to take the fight to the ground. Usually he’ll land a takedown or two after willingly striking for 8-10 minutes, but by that time it’s a little more desperate. If he could just shoot for a takedown within the first couple minutes, he’d be a much more favorable fighter to target.
With that said, coming in on short notice, Luan Chagas doesn’t have the best outlook in this fight, even if Moraes does keep it standing. I think Moraes can probably win the striking battle but he definitely has the superior ground game. Chagas’ biggest strength is probably his ground game as well, which doesn’t bode well if he realizes early he’s outmatched on the feet.
I definitely like Moraes as a tournament option and Vegas has his wins inside distance prop at -198, which is crazy high to me. But Moraes is also highly priced, and that makes him difficult to target over some of the more prolific finishers. Moraes definitely has the upside, but I consider him more a contrarian tournament option.
Fight Prediction: Moraes by RNC, RD 2
Renato Moicano vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Fight Odds: Tukhugov -150, Moicano +130
Odds to finish: -110
Salaries: Tukhugov 10.4k, Moicano 9k
Weight Class: 145
For the opening prelim fight on a good card, this fight between prospects Renato Moicano and Zubaira Tukhugov is really solid.
I was high on Tukhugov in his last fight against Phillipe Nover but he really disappointed from a fantasy perspective and I don’t think I can go back to the well in this fight. It’s not that I don’t like him anymore as a prospect but he can be so inactive on the feet at times, where he excels, and that led to a disastrous score last time around. His price is also higher than it should be based on the odds.
Moicano on the other hand, really impressed me his last time out, submitting Tom Niinimaki in the second round after beating him up on the feet. While he’s not primarily a striker and he should be behind Tukhugov technically, I really liked his output. He is primarily a submission grappler so that added advantage makes me like him even more, and for the price, he’s definitely viable in all formats.
I’m not sure that he can get the fight to the ground, but his output and overall skill-set make me give him the slight edge.
Fight Prediction: Moicano by Decision