UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey Quick Picks

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Welcome to the final event of 2016, it’s been a great year and I want to thank everyone who’s read my content along the way. If you want to read my full breakdowns for each and every fight, along with projections, expert rankings and more, you can purchase the UFC 207 package for only $5 in the Expert Marketplace.

Myself and a few others have put together a year-long MMA Championship contest that takes place in 2017, which costs $100 to enter. You can find more information about that the forums, or you can message me on Twitter at BrettAppley.

One other important note before I dive in, this fight card only has 10 fights. That’s a lot less than usual and will make for a lot of ties in large field tournaments. If you are entering tournament lineups, especially in big GPPs, I think it’s a good strategy to leave salary on the table, even 1k or more. There are only so many combinations, and if you are maxing out your roster, odds are someone has the same lineup as you.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

Dominick Cruz, $8,700

There are two title fights this weekend, Ronda Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes and Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt. Both fights bring a lot of risk to the table, but both are also very likely to be high scoring.

I love to target these fights in all formats, and the fighter I’m most confident in of this bunch is Dominick Cruz, who can be had for 8.7k. The downside to Cruz is that he’s fighting Garbrandt, who will either win by an early knockout or lose, in my opinion. That doesn’t exactly equal safety, but there’s little to no safety on this card. Cruz is the second heaviest favorite at -225, and there’s a bit of price value on him.

Cruz is clearly far more experienced than Garbrandt, and a better Mixed Martial Arts fighter in nearly every way. He’s more technical on the feet, he’s far more elusive, he has better cardio and he’s likely the better wrestler. The most important part of that is his elusiveness, he’s extremely hard to hit. I know it only takes one punch, but Cruz did such a great job against TJ Dillashaw earlier this year, I have faith he can avoid the knockout blow from Garbrandt.

And if this fight lasts longer than a round or two, Cruz should win and score highly. With the new DK scoring, Cruz will land a couple takedowns along the way, win his rounds, and he should score 100 points or more, even in a decision. He’s one of my favorite cash game plays this week.

Ray Borg, $7,900

As a -135 favorite with an ITD prop of +232, I think Ray Borg is one of the better value plays for 7.9k. He’s fighting Louis Smolka, who I think is widely considered to be better than Borg, which may keep the ownership down, but I think this is a good stylistic matchup for Borg.

Smolka is average at best on the feet, but his bread and butter is his submission grappling game. The problem is that Smolka often finds himself in poor positions against worse grapplers, in almost all of his fights. He had his back taken twice by Ben Nguyen, and he was taken down and controlled early and often by Paddy Holohan, for example. Borg is a better grappler than all of those guys, and a better wrestler.

I think he’ll be able to land some takedowns, pass the guard and either win a decision or potentially grab a RNC. For 7.9k I really like Borg in cash games.

Tournament Plays

Amanda Nunes, $8,000

It’s going to be hard to avoid Ronda Rousey and Amanda Nunes in tournaments, the fight itself is -1175 to end inside the distance, and I think it finishes quickly. It’s a pretty clear striker vs. grappler matchup, but my preferred play is Nunes here.

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Unlike nearly all of Rousey’s former opponents, including Holly Holm, Nunes is a real finisher. She usually wins by first round finish, or she loses, and I think that poses a big threat to Rousey. Nunes should be the superior and more powerful striker, so as long as this fight stays standing, I’m favoring Nunes.

Of course Rousey could do her thing, get the fight to the ground and lock in a submission, but I have my doubts as to how easy that will be. I also have major concerns over Rousey’s mental health, which could be important if she can’t get Nunes out of there quickly.

Nunes has an ITD prop of +128, and even if she’s popular, the name of Rousey will hold some of her ownership down. She has first round KO upside in this matchup, so Nunes makes for a great tournament play this week.

NOTE: The lineups I don’t have with Nunes will probably contain Rousey, this is a great fight to target on both sides, the winner will very likely end up on the winning tournament lineup.

Alex Garcia, $8,600

One important characteristic of fighters is how durable they are, because no matter how good their technique is, if they can’t take a punch, none of it really matters. Fortunately for Alex Garcia, he finds himself in a good spot against a 41-year-old Mike Pyle who simply doesn’t have the durability any more.

Pyle has been knocked out six times in his career and three times in his last six fights, and while Garcia isn’t a great fighter by any means, he’s very powerful. Both on the feet and with his grappling, Garcia is all about power. He’ll throw bombs on the feet early, and if he lands one, I think he puts Pyle’s lights out.

Even if he can’t get an early knockout, I think Garcia can use his power wrestling to get the fight to the ground a few times, and potentially still land a knockdown. That gives him a relatively high floor, even in a decision. With an ITD prop of +115, Garcia has the upside I’m looking for in tournaments. He’s also priced in the range with Dillashaw, Cruz and Rousey, which should keep his ownership in check.

Fade of the Week

TJ Dillashaw, $8,800

My fade of the week is TJ Dillashaw in tournaments, and I’m not sure how hot of a take that is. I have to imagine he’s going to be popular, which is a big factor in fading him. You can’t pay up for Cain Velasquez any more, and I think people will shy away from Brandon Thatch at 9k, so there aren’t many other options.

This may shock you, because it shocked me, but Dillashaw has the lowest odds to finish inside the distance on the entire card, even though he’s the biggest favorite. That’s right, at 8.8k, Dillashaw is a -255 favorite, the biggest on the board. But he’s +374 to finish, the lowest on the board.

His ITD prop isn’t actually THAT low, but still, it’s the worst of 20 fighters and I think that’s important to note. The biggest reason for that I think is because he’s fighting John Lineker, who has an absolute granite chin, Dillashaw aint knocking Lineker out.

Furthermore, Lineker has good takedown defense, so I don’t think Dillashaw will score many grappling points, and his points will essentially all come from striking. He still lands at a high output, but even if he scores 100 sig strikes in this fight, that only gives him a score of 80. It could be good enough, but I doubt it. There are plenty of other options in the high range who could score 100 or more, and if Dillashaw is going to be owned more than 20%, which I think he clearly will, I’ll probably fade him altogether.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.