UFC 208: Holm vs. de Randamie Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We went 3/4 last week with three great performances from Jessica Andrade, Curtis Blaydes and Chas Skelly, but Dennis Bermudez was a miss.
It’s hard to be disappointed when the Korean Zombie comes back from a 3.5 year layoff to spoil the party, he’s such a fun fighter to watch! We have the first ever UFC women’s 145 title fight on the horizon and a handful of other action fights. More importantly, there’s money to be made on DraftKings so that’s why I’m here.
DK has a $20 3-entry max 10K guaranteed GPP in the lobby right now, which is half full. Let’s make sure to fill that up this week so we keep getting the variety of contests that we like.
If you want Full Breakdowns, Rankings, Projections and more, you can find all that in my MMA Premium section here:
Gravycakes and I are breaking down the entire card on Grinders Live, so make sure to give that a watch. Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Cash Game Plays
1. Wilson Reis, $9,600
It’s another week where there aren’t very many truly safe cash game plays, but it’s hard to argue against the safety of Wilson Reis, even if he is super expensive at 9.6k. Reis is a -700 favorite with an ITD prop of +115, and he’s easily the heaviest favorite on the card.
Reis is a power grappler with elite submission grappling abilities, and he’s very much in contention to fight for the Flyweight title. His opponent Ulka Sasaki is not in the same class as him, plain and simple. Sasaki is also a high level submission grappler but he’s nowhere near as athletic or as strong as Reis.
Reis should be better in all areas of this fight, and he has a great chance to finish Sasaki once he realizes he can outgrapple him. Sasaki has faded and been TKOd, as well as submitted, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fade here and get stopped. More importantly, I like the floor of Reis because even if he puts on a poor performance, he should win. If Jacare Souza puts on a bad performance, for example, he could get knocked out quickly.
I just don’t see Reis having much trouble and he should have a high enough activity rate to give him a decent score this weekend.
2. Dustin Poirier, $9,300
I look at Dustin Poirier in a similar manner as Wilson Reis for cash games. He’s a large favorite at -470, with an ITD prop of +105, and he’s facing an opponent in Jim Miller who shouldn’t put him in that much danger.
Poirier is coming off a knockout loss to Michael Johnson, but Miller doesn’t have anywhere near that kind of power on the feet. If this fight stays standing, while it could be “competitive” for a while, I’d have to give a strong advantage toward Poirier in power, aggression, pace and output. Miller has always been a tough dude, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him last a while in this fight, but I think it’s Poirier’s fight to win.
Miller may have the pure submission grappling advantage, but Poirier is no slouch on the ground himself. I don’t see Miller being able to get him down and hold him down. If you’re looking for a “safe” win with upside, I think Poirier is in a good spot and should score well enough to pay off the price in cash.
Tournament Plays
1. Marcin Tybura, $8,600
The odds on Marcin Tybura didn’t come out until Thursday morning, and they were quickly bet down from -245 to -185. But I don’t care, he’s in a great spot to finish this fight and I think he’s a strong tournament play.
His opponent Justin Willis is coming in on just a few days notice, and he’s a HUGE heavyweight, which could be a disadvantage if the fight drags on. While that could give him a strength advantage early, I doubt he has the gas tank to last three rounds, and he may get beaten up as this fight progresses.
The Over on 1.5 rounds is +105, which means Vegas thinks this fight ends pretty quickly. Willis does have the power to end any fight, but he’s still a bit raw and making his debut against a more experienced, well-rounded fighter in Tybura, and I don’t think that puts him in a great spot.
For 8.6k, Tybura will definitely pay off the price with a finish, and that’s what I’m hoping for here.
2. Jacare Souza, $9,500
It’s hard to ignore the top three fighters this week, even if they are expensive. I’m leaning toward Reis and Poirier in cash games based on their floor and activity rate, but Jacare Souza may have the highest upside of all three.
He’s a world class submission grappler who’s on the verge of a title shot, and a win here would most likely give that to him. His opponent Tim Boetsch is nothing special, but he does have power. He’s also been submitted and knocked out plenty of times. If Jacare gets this fight on the floor, he should have a huge advantage and will likely finish the fight.
Jacare has an ITD prop of -240 which is by far the highest on the card, and it’s going to be hard to ignore. He may be popular in tournaments, but he pretty clearly has the best chance of scoring 120 points on this card, so I want exposure to him.
Fade of the Week
1. Islam Makhachev, $8,800
Islam Makhachev is one of the heaviest favorites on the card at -310, but I don’t love the price for what I’m expecting out of him. He’s a very solid wrestling and high level submission grappler, but he’s facing a tough and gritty fighter in Nik Lentz who should be able to keep up for a while.
Just above Makhachev are the three big guns in Poirier, Jacare and Reis, whom I prefer in any format. Below him are countless fighters who have equal or better upside, and cost less, so I don’t see a ton of reason to play Makhachev this weekend.
He has an ITD prop of +295 and won’t throw many strikes, so unless he gets that quick finish, he won’t be paying off 8.8k. I’ll take my chances and fade him this weekend.