UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 Quick Picks

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Update

WELPPPP, I had to rewrite portions of this article after the Khabib vs. Ferguson fight was canceled! NOT FUN. Do not roster either fighter in your lineups! Thankfully we still have a good amount of fun fights on this card, and there is still money to be won.
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I broke down every fight in full in the MMA Premium section, which you can find here. You can also find Rankings, Projections and get access to the Premium Chat, which should all be active Friday.

Myself and gravycakes broke down the card on this week’s Grinders Live, which you can watch here.

Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for the most up to date content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Mirsad Bektic, $9,600

There are only three fighters who are heavier favorites than -170, Rashad Evans (-240), Lando Vannata (-400) and Mirsad Bektic (-800). Regardless of how you feel about this particular line, it’s pretty clear that Bektic is the safest play for a win on Saturday.

He’s fighting a very tough grinder in Darren Elkins which makes people nervous, but I think Bektic has the tools to win this fight. The paths to victory for Elkins are essentially outwrestling Bektic or gassing him out and taking rounds. Bektic may still be young in his career but he’s a legitimate prospect, and I don’t think either of those outcomes will happen.

Bektic has a 100 percent takedown defense rate in the UFC and I don’t think Elkins is good enough to get him to the ground multiple times. Bektic is too solid and athletic, and I actually think he’ll be able to get Elkins to the ground. He has a powerful wrestling game that may be too much for Elkins. If Bektic can defend the takedowns and chooses to create space, he should have no problem outstriking Elkins. He’s both more technical and more powerful, and Elkins rushing at him should work perfectly for his game.

He’s expensive, but I think Bektic is a safe play in your 50/50s and h2h games.

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2. Cynthia Calvillo, 8.1k

It did not feel good update this article and remove both Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson from my cash game plays. And there aren’t many other plays I’m dying to have in cash games, but at 8.1k, I think Cynthia Calvillo is worth consideration.

Part of what we are looking for in our 50/50s and h2h games is a high floor, it’s not necessarily about who we are sure is going to win and score big. If you can get four wins from your six fighters and moderate scores across the board, you will win in the long run.

Calvillo is making her UFC debut against Amanda Cooper, who is 1-1 in the UFC, losing to Tatiana Suarez in the TUF Finale and beating Anna Elmose. Calvillo is only 3-0 as a professional, and she’s a slight favorite over Cooper at -115, but I think she’s the rightful favorite.

What I like about Calvillo is that she has a good grappling game, she’s active, and she comes from a good camp in Team Alpha Male. I think she can be competitive with her activity on the feet, but she definitely has the ground advantage. If she can get takedowns, she’s more likely to win rounds and more likely to win the fight. For those reasons, I am picking her to win.

My main concern is that this is a women’s strawweight fight, so it will probably be close regardless, but even in a loss, I think Calvillo can score 25-30 points, which is a good floor. She also has a bit of upside with her ability to take the back and get a RNC.

Aside from the slight line value on her, I think Calvillo should get to fight for three full rounds, score a decent number of points regardless, and have a good chance to win.

Tournament Plays

1. Tyson Pedro, $8,200

I know there are the obvious tournament plays, including the fighters I listed in cash games, but I’m gonna try to throw out some fighters who may not have been on your radar, as opposed to the Mark Hunt’s of the world.

Tyson Pedro is coming off a first round submission against Khalil Rountree and he gets Paul Craig in his second fight. Craig is also coming off a nice submission win in his debut, and even though he’s a dog, I’m pretty confident Craig will be more popular.

I can understand it, Craig is a very opportunistic submission grappler and he’s seemingly a fan favorite, and he’s cheaper. But if Pedro is going to be lower owned as the -145 favorite, I will have more exposure to him. What I don’t like about Craig is that outside of his submission grappling, he has no wrestling to back it up. I don’t think he can get the fight to the ground and stay in top control.

Pedro is a much more powerful grappler and I think he’ll be the one getting takedowns and controlling the fight. Craig may need to sub him off his back, but I’m not betting on it. With an ITD prop of +114, Pedro makes for a good tournament target.

2. Daniel Spitz, $7,500

It makes me nauseous to even write him up, but Daniel Spitz is another guy I like in tournaments. He’s facing Mark Godbeer in his UFC debut, and Godbeer has the best odds to finish on the entire card at -101.

Godbeer is a good kickboxer, but he’s shown a weakness in grappling, and he was submitted by pro boxer Justin Ledet in his debut. On tape, Spitz doesn’t look good. He’s only 5-0 on the regional circuit and he’s fought nobody of note. Just based on the skillset, Godbeer seems like an easy pick.

But I think Spitz has a legitimate chance to win by quick submission, and more importantly, he should go under-owned in tournaments. Spitz is a former D1 offensive lineman from Washington State and he trains out of Sikjitsu where Michael Chiesa, Julianna Pena and more have trained, and I expect that he as a decent grappling game.

He also said in an interview that he knows he has the advantage on the ground. It’s a risky pick, but if Spitz goes hard for the takedown I think he may get it and get the submission, and if he’s less than 25 percent owned, he could shoot you up to the top of leaderboards.

Fade of the Week

1. Amanda Cooper, $8,100

There’s too many different reasons to have some exposure to everyone on this card, but smack in the middle at 8.1k, I don’t want to have exposure to Amanda Cooper.

She could win the fight, but it won’t matter, I don’t think she has enough upside to be on the winning lineup in tournaments and I don’t think she’s a strong enough play for cash games. She’s fighting Cynthia Calvillo, a well-rounded grappler coming from Team Alpha Male who is making her UFC debut.

Calvillo is the slight favorite at -120, and since both are priced at 8.1k, she’s the better value. Cooper is going to need to keep the fight standing to win, but as I noted, even in a win I don’t want exposure to her. Her ITD prop is +522, and that’s not good enough.

Weak Chin of the Week

1. Rashad Evans

There are actually two obvious weak chins on this card, Alistair Overeem and Rashad Evans. Overeem is pretty obvious and he’s fighting Mark Hunt, so I don’t think that will surprise many people.

But Evans is the more intriguing one to target because he’s fighting old-man Dan Kelly, who always comes through as the underdog. I can’t say that I think the 40-year-old judo man Dan is going to beat Evans by knockout, but honestly it wouldn’t shock me. And for his price of 7.2k, he’s an interesting play as a fade on the potentially shot Evans.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.