UFC 276 Odds: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Picks and Predictions
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC 276 odds and the Adesanya vs. Cannonier matchup. Make sure to use our PrizePicks promo code for a $100 bonus on UFC picks tonight!
UFC 276 Odds: Adesanya vs. Connonier Preview
In the world of combat sports, some title shots are granted based on merit and performance, but other title shots are granted based on the stated desires of the champion. It would be difficult to argue that Dan Henderson was the most deserving Middleweight Title Contender when he challenged Michael Bisping for the UFC Championship in Manchester England in 2016.
However, the fight was meaningful to Michael Bisping as a champion because it gave him the chance to find redemption for an earlier career loss, further validating his status as a world champion. When it comes to the promotion for UFC 276, Israel Adesanya has provided more assurances than anyone else that Jared Cannonier is “the dark horse of the division” worthy of a title opportunity. Adesanya, a consummate planner when it comes to his own career aspirations, has been laying the foundations for this fight with Cannonier since a November 2019 recording of the Joe Rogan Experience in which he first gave him the “dark horse” label.
Canonnier, the Dark Horse
Since Adesanya began mentioning his name, Cannonier has done his own part to establish himself as a legitimate threat to the throne at middleweight. Cannonier derailed the Blonde Brunson hype train that had been gaining steam and momentum with a brutal Rd. 2 TKO stoppage in his most recent bout. Prior to that fight, he was able to outpoint perennial tough out Kelvin Gastelum to a unanimous decision victory, nearly finishing him with strikes after dropping him with a stiff jab. Since moving to the middleweight division in November of 2018, Cannonier has amassed a record of five wins and one defeat, with the only loss in that time coming via unanimous decision against former champion Robert Whittaker (competitive 29-28 decision). Overall, Cannonier has secured four KO/TKO stoppages and one unanimous decision victory in six middleweight outings. His career hit list includes Anderson Silva via Rd. 1 TKO (Leg Break), David Branch via Rd. 2 KO (Punches), Jack Hermansson via Rd. 2 KO (Uppercut), and most recently Derek Brunson via Rd. 2 KO (Backfist & Elbows).
Timing is everything in the world of mixed martial arts. For Cannonier, his chance to immortalize himself in UFC gold will likely be limited to this Saturday night. Cannonier is a 38 year old middleweight who has been competing professionally for more than 10 years. Respectfully, his star power and promotional skills are not quite on the level of his in-cage combatives, so it will take a win in this position for Cannonier to remain at the top of the division and most importantly for his financial future, the top billing for future UFC cards. Cannonier found his optimal weight class and training situation later in his career, so he will be trying to bring a belt back to John Crouch and company at the MMA Lab in Glendale, Arizona.
Adesanya Looks to Catch Lightning in a Bottle
For Adesanya, this fight represents an opportunity to recapture lightning in a bottle. Izzy has long been a source of fascination and intrigue among fans, but recent lackluster performances in title rematches against Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker has led fans to cool on the middleweight champion. Since the night Adesanya wrested the middleweight title from former Champion Robert Whittaker via KO2, he has secured only one finish (vs. Paulo Costa; TKO2) in five title opportunities.
Adesanya’s mystique and allure was also harmed by a unanimous decision loss to former light heavyweight titleist Jan Blachowicz. While fans appreciated Adesanya’s willingness to “dare to be great” it did diminish his invincibility factor and force him to reestablish himself in his natural weight category of 185lb.
UFC 276 Predictions
When I think about this fight I consider it most likely that we will see a stand up kickboxing match between two willing and well schooled strikers. Adesanya is the more well schooled striker of the two fighters, having an extensive professional background in several stand up striking disciplines including professional boxing & kickboxing. Cannonier is moreso a threat because of his durability, his dynamism, his tactical approach to each opponent’s skill set, and his mental fortitude in chaotic situations. Both of these fighters are spending 70% or more of their career fight time at distance, so trying to understand the dynamics we will see at distance will inform our opinion of how the fight will play out.
h3. The Stats
According to the stats, Cannonier and Adesanya are attempting roughly the same amount of strikes per minute (~8.6) with Izzy landing ~.2 strikes more than Cannonier per minute. Cannonier’s stats have also been impacted by losses sustained at light heavyweight as well as in the heavyweight class. Isolating Cannonier’s stats in the middleweight division would almost certainly improve them across the board, and they already appear competitive with the champion on paper. In the middleweight division, Cannonier has a 4:2 KD ratio for and against, securing knock downs against Branch, Silva, Hermansson, and Gastelum. Cannnonier was knocked down in the UFC by Derek Brunson (known power puncher), Robert Whittaker, Jan Blachowicz (former LHW Champ), Dominick Reyes (former LHW title challenger), and Shawn Jordan in his UFC debut at HW. It sounds bad to say Cannonier has a negative KD percentage but when put in proper context, you see that his power is evident at middleweight in ways it never was at light heavyweight. The most impressive statistical measure for Cannonier in this fight is his striking efficiency vs. expectation; Cannonier sports an 11.7% striking efficiency vs. 11.2% for Adesanya.
This fight should represent a game of cat and mouse. Adesanya should be faster and more clever, but he will have an aggressive adversary trying to thwart his game plan and hurt him badly with any connection he is able to create. If there are X-factors in this fight, they would have to be leg kicks and potential control positions.
Adesanya is one of the most active and accurate leg kickers in the UFC, landing at a high clip and with debilitating power and placement. Nearly 33% of Izzy’s total strikes are low kicks which contributes to his significant strike differential (leg kicks statistically more likely to land than any other strike). Normally this is a positive attribute for Adesanya, but occasionally we see him fall back into a low-volume, tepid paced leg kicking performance from the outside. Cannonier to his credit throws about 17% of his strikes to the legs and he tends to deliver powerful low kicks when he commits to throwing. The fact that Cannonier may be able to challenge Adesanya at leg kick range could make the striking dynamics more interesting.
X-Factor
Why could control positions be an X-factor in this matchup? I am glad you asked! The one thing that stands out about Adesanya’s stats from a critical standpoint is his 14% opponent control rate. Cannonier only controls his opponents ~5% of his total fight time (conceding 22% opponent control) but he has been pretty effective on top of his opponents when he is able to get the fight there (over 1.5mins of control per takedown attempt). The problem with reading too much into this stat is the lack of evidence that his control translates to the middleweight division, where Cannonier is yet to have a control time advantage over a single opponent. If Cannonier decides to mix up his offense, he may be able to use control time against the fence or takedown opportunities to threaten Adesanya and get him off his game.
UFC Odds and Betting Movement
Adesanya opened for this bout as a -300 (75%) favorite at online sportsbooks and he has been steadily bet down across the market to an average price of -479 (82.7%). Some books are holding as high as -500 (83.3%) which seems pretty aggressive for a stand up kickboxing match (inherently higher variance) between two mid-thirty year olds within ~5 years of age of one another. Adesanya is a deserved favorite here as the younger fighter closer to his prime with more experience and superior physical attributes. However, I think the opening odds were shaded towards Adesanya being the public side, and he will be among the most popular parlay pieces across the sporting world on Saturday.
As for Jared Cannonier, his money line market average is resting at +358 (21.8%) after opening at a +250 (28.6%) tag. These odds are interesting to me in part because Adesanya has not been this heavily favored to win a fight since he fought Anderson Silva on 2/9/2019 (closed -533 or 84.2% average). Betting lines were similar in terms of opening range and the direction of the market run for two of Cannonier’s middleweight performances. Cannonier closed above +250 (28.6%) the night he knocked out David Branch, and he closed +228 the night he knocked out Jack Hermasson.
Looking retrospectively at these two athletes’ odds performance, it becomes obvious why you can be tempted to play either side in this fight. If you’re looking for a reason to back Adesanya at the betting window, you can take solace in knowing Adesanya has been favored in every one of his UFC bouts and he has posted an incredible 11-1 (91.7% win rate) record at an average odds of -210 (67.7%). This means that Adesanya is exceeding his projected win rate by 24% and returning his money line backers a very respectable 38.3% ROI over a 12 fight sample. The only red flag in Adesanya’s historical odds performance is the fact that he lost as a -225 (~69.2%) favorite against Jan Blachowicz.
If you are looking for a reason to back Jared Cannonier at the betting window, you will not struggle to find a reason. Cannonier has a much less shiny UFC record, posting an 8-5 mark (61.5% win rate) over a 13 fight sample. However, Cannonier has been profitable as a favorite and as an underdog. His average odds in the UFC have been +116 (46.3%), meaning he has exceeded his expected win rate by 15.2%. As a UFC underdog, Cannonier has been nothing shy of impressive. Cannonier is 3-3 as a UFC underdog for a 50% win rate vs. an expected win rate of 31.1% for an 18.9% overperformance on expectation (avg. odds of +222). If you backed Jared Cannonier as an underdog every opportunity you got in the UFC, you would have returned 73.3% on your investment.
Best Bet For Adesanya vs. Connonier
If you have to place a bet on this fight, I would consider it a clear dog or pass situation based on the odds, the combatants, and the market considerations that we have discussed. Don’t overextend in a situation where Adesanya could justify his price with an early finish, but make sure you don’t allow yourself to overextend on the Adesanya side either knowing that Cannonier has routinely outperformed expectations in the UFC including in his current odds range. Either way, both of these fighters are dangerous strikers with heat on their strikes, so targeting violence in this fight (and broadly in the middleweight division) makes sense to me. If you don’t want to pick sides, I would look to target violence with a fight that doesn’t go to decision prop. If you want to plant your flag on a side, I would take a smaller position on the 20% underdog and hope for the best.
PICK: Fight Doesn’t Go To DEC -115 (Caesars William Hill)
PICK: Jared Cannonier ML +380 (Bet365)
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