UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! Last week’s article performed well with Mirsad Bektic and Calvillo as cash games, and Tyson Pedro as a GPP play. We also had Amanda Cooper as the Fade and Rashad Evans as the weak chin, so if you played a combo of everyone I spoke highly of, you probably won some cash!
The best performance of the week was that of Cynthia Calvillo who won by first round RNC, and at a low ownership, she boosted a lot of MMA Premium members up the leaderboard. If you want access to this week’s MMA Premium, with full breakdowns, plus projections, rankings and more, you can find that here.
If you want to watch the full episode of Grinders Live, with gravycakes and myself breaking down the fights, you can watch that here.
Let’s try to win some money again this week, so onto the fights!
Cash Games
1. Kelvin Gastelum $9,500
Unlike many of the previous cards, the main event favorite is the big dog this week. Kelvin Gastelum is priced up at 9.5k, but he’s a massive favorite at -425, with an ITD prop of -276.
There are so many reasons to like Gastelum this week if you can afford him, outside of his odds. He strikes at a high rate, he can land with power, he has a good wrestling game and he’s coming off a great performance against Tim Kennedy in his Middleweight debut.
This is obviously a different matchup against the powerful striker in Vitor Belfort, but as long as Belfort doesn’t win by KO in the first round, this should be Gastelum’s fight. And Gastelum has never been knocked out, which is a good sign, so even if he gets hit, he’s not a massive risk to be KO’d. Of course this is MMA and anything can happen, but I trust the odds on Gastelum.
In his past couple performances, Belfort has shown nothing to suggest he’s capable of winning this fight. He’s only landed a combined 18 significant strikes in last three fights. And if he gets put on his back, he shows little defense and has been easily put away. There are too many routes to victory for Gastelum that you have to consider him in all formats, and I think he’s a good spot to start your head-to-head and 50/50 games this weekend.
2. Tim Means, $9,000
Tim Means fought Alex Oliveira in December of 2016, and the result was a “no contest”, so they are now rematching in Brazil. But the “no contest” resulted from Means essentially knocking out Oliveira while he had a knee on the ground. It’s an illegal strike, but the fight could have very easily been stopped later in the round.
Oliveira was determined to have a wrestling advantage in the first fight, but Means scrambled really well and was able to reverse positions and even put Oliveira on his back. And Means dominated the clinch striking, hurting Oliveira many times.
I think Means will be popular this time around, but I think he’s a very solid play. He’s a very aggressive fighter and tough to finish, so his floor is high even in a loss. I do think there’s a chance Oliveira can make this a tough fight, especially in Brazil, but Means is the deserved favorite and a good bet to score highly.
Tournament Plays
1. Kevin Lee, $8,300
You might think a fighter with an ITD prop of +285 isn’t the best play in tournaments, but he’s coming off an amazing DraftKings performance that resulted in 148 points!
He won by submission in that fight against Magomed Mustafaev, but he landed so many takedowns and passes prior to the finish, and that boosted his score to an all-time high. He’s proven to be a great wrestler in the 155 division, and I think that can come into play here against his opponent Francisco Trinaldo.
Trinaldo is a kickboxer first and foremost, and he has decent scrambling ability, but I think Lee will have the grappling edge. Even if Lee can’t get a finish, which I’m really not expecting him to, he can still land several takedowns and passes, along with his normal amount of significant strikes, and that should lead him to a solid score. He’s only 8.3k, so a score in the 85+ range would be enough to put him on potential winning lineups in tournaments.
I’m willing to take the chance on him and hope he can land another half-dozen takedowns here, and I think you should have some tournament exposure to him this weekend.
2. Paulo Borrachinha, $9,100
I’m not sure how popular Paulo Borrachinha will be, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays this weekend at 9.1k. He’s making his UFC debut against Garreth McLellan, and he’s the second heaviest favorite on the card at -300, with an ITD prop of -161.
The most important part of that is McLellan, who is 1-3 in the UFC with a decision loss to Alessio Di Chirico and a TKO loss to Magnus Cedenblad. He’s not great anywhere, and he comes from the South African scene which has yet to produce a high level MMA fighter. He tries hard in fights and he beat a gassed out Bubba Bush, but I think Borrachinha is better everywhere and is in play for a first round finish.
Borrachinha fought on TUF Brazil 3, and looked decent before gassing out in a fight and losing. But he’s been fighting back on the regional scene lately and dominating, and I think this is a spot made for him to look good in his debut in Brazil. My biggest concern for him is that this fight gets out of the first round and he gasses again, but hey, we’re talking GPPs and Borrachinha has the upside we need.
Fade of the Week
1. Sergio Moraes, $8,800
One of the biggest problems with Sergio Moraes is his price tag of 8.8k, it’s too expensive for what I’m expecting from him. In both cash games and tournaments, I would rather pay up to any of the four fighters below him, and there are better fighters in the mid range as well.
He’s fighting newcomer Davi Ramos who’s a legit submission grappler, and that’s always been Moraes’ strong suit. If this fight gets to the ground I don’t think Moraes will dominate, he’ll probably be outmatched by a bit. And if the fight stays standing, I think it’s close enough that Ramos could pull off the upset.
Furthermore, Moraes is getting up in age and hasn’t looked great recently, barely escaping against the likes of Zak Ottow and Luan Chagas, and he’s generally a slow starter. There is a good chance he loses this fight in my mind, even though he’s a large favorite. And even if he wins, this could be a very close fight and one where he shouldn’t score 100+ points.
I’m just not willing to invest in him on this card.
Weak Chin of the Week
1. Shogun Rua vs. Gian Villante
I get to use a full matchup for this category this week because both Shogun Rua and Gian Villante have weak chins, and they’re facing each other. Shogun is obviously much older and close to retirement, and he’s been knocked out plenty of times in his career. He’s looked good in wins lately, but he still gets rocked.
Similarly, Gian Villante has been rocked several times in his wins, and he’s been knocked out as well. Both guys still hit hard and based on how many times each have been stunned, I think it’s likely someone hits the deck early.
Shogun is the favorite but he’s more expensive at 8.5k, while Villante is a +120 dog at 7.7k. I’m going to have more exposure to Villante in this fight because he’s so much cheaper and at least has a 50 percent chance to win in my opinion. But I do think you need exposure to both sides of this fight in tournaments.