UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez Beat Down
Happy Fourth of July everybody! Welcome to another edition of the UFC Beat Down as regardless of the fireworks, it sure feels like a holiday!
We get three awesome UFC events this week starting with this card on July 7. DraftKings has posted a few solid tournaments for this card as they set up the big event on Saturday for UFC 200. If you missed the announcement, myself and gravycakes will be hosting a UFC 200 Grinders Live on July 6 at 7pst/10et, make sure to check it out!
If you want to check out the written breakdown for UFC 200, click here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for all the latest UFC content.
Onto the fights!
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez
Fight Odds: Dos Anjos -370, Alvarez +310
Odds to finish: -240
Salaries: Dos Anjos 11k, Alvarez 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
There’s only one five-round fight on July 7th’ s UFC Fight Night and it’s Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez. Like usual, both fighters will have an extended floor and an opportunity to finish, so I think both are in play.
Dos Anjos has fought as well as ever in his past few fights with dominant victories over Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis and Nate Diaz. Kings MMA has brought out the best in his striking to go along an already well-developed wrestling and grappling game.
Eddie Alvarez is a true veteran of the MMA game and he’s got the experience and resume to back up his chance at the title. Alvarez was a champion in Bellator for a long time and has racked up wins against Pettis and Gilbert Melendez in the UFC. I heard someone on Twitter say this about Alvarez but he’s extremely good at winning fights. That sounds like oversimplified analysis but it’s true, he’s extremely tough, experienced and has a high fight IQ.
With that said, you have to pick Dos Anjos to win this fight. It’s not that he’s far more superior than Alvarez but he’s likely to have a speed advantage on the feet, and the grappling should neutralize itself enough for me to lean on Dos Anjos.
From a DraftKings perspective, Dos Anjos costs 11k and Alvarez costs 8.6k and that gives me pause. I like both fighters in cash games simply for their floor in a five-round fight but for tournaments, I’m not sure if I’m willing to pay 11k for Dos Anjos.
What’s extremely puzzling is the O/U on this fight which is set at Over 3.5 rounds +120. That means that Vegas thinks this fight is likely to end within 3.5 rounds, and they’ve given Dos Anjos a wins inside distance prop of -150. These odds are somewhat baffling to me, as Dos Anjos and Alvarez have fought a combined 63 times and have only been finished five times. That’s less than eight percent of the time.
I personally think this fight is more than likely to end in a decision based on the above math and the fact that both are extremely durable and don’t have the highest rate of finishing. And if I think this fight will end in a decision, I think it’s likely Dos Anjos scores less than 85 points. For that price, 85 is acceptable but likely not good enough to be on a winning lineup.
For Alvarez’ dirt cheap price tag, I think he’s solidly in play for tournaments. Even though his upside is limited, this is a winnable fight for him and any victory in five rounds should be enough to put him on a winning tournament teams.
Fight Prediction: Dos Anjos by Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis
Fight Odds: Nelson -135, Lewis +115
Odds to finish: -425
Salaries: Nelson 9.8k, Lewis 9.6k
Weight Class: HW
Not much has to be said for me to entice you into rostering Roy Nelson or Derrick Lewis, but I’ll say it anyway, the combination of price and upside on both fighters make them elite tournament options.
I expect Lewis to be much more popular than Nelson, but I also think Lewis is the better play. There’s something to be said for a fighter with momentum and that’s what Lewis has, scoring three consecutive knockout victories before coming into this fight. He’s super heavy-handed with ferocious ground and pound, and he’s fighting a knockout artist in Nelson who’s very hittable.
Nelson has been relatively reliant on his knockout power late in his career and it hasn’t exactly paid off for him as he’s become much more one-dimensional. While he COULD land that heavy shot and KO Lewis, he’s only won by knockout once in his past eight fights. I do think he has the better grappling than Lewis and if he gets the fight to the ground, I think Nelson could finish.
I’m not so sure that Nelson will want to get the fight to the ground though, which could be his downfall. This is obviously a very close fight and no outcome would shock me, but I think Lewis has the higher upside and for the price, he’ll be one of my heavier tournament plays. Make sure you have some exposure to Nelson too, he actually has the higher finish prop at -105 and should come in at a lower ownership.
Fight Prediction: Lewis by TKO, RD 1
Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad
Fight Odds: Jouban -120, Muhammad +100
Odds to finish: NA
Salaries: Jouban 10k, Muhammad 9.4k
Weight Class: 170
Belal Muhammad comes into the UFC with a 9-0 record, 3 TKO wins and 6 decision wins. He’s an average striker at best, but I’m not too fond of his technique, he seems to throw a lot of arm punches and he keeps his hands quite low. That doesn’t mean he has no power or he can’t land some good shots, but I question his upside.
He also seems to have a decent ground game, I’ve seen him shoot and get the fight to the mat, and control the fight on the ground. The odds indicate a toss-up fight but I have to lean toward Alan Jouban in this bout.
Jouban has fought six times including four wins and three finishes in the UFC, and that experience is pretty invaluable. The knock on Jouban is that he often starts slow and gets rocked in every fight, but I feel like he’s going to be at a big athletic advantage and I’m not sure Muhammad has the skills to hurt Jouban.
For his price, I think Jouban makes for a solid play, he strikes at a high rate of 5.16 significant strikes per minute and he has finishing upside, even if the odds don’t indicate a likely stoppage.
Fight Prediction: Jouban by Decision
Joe Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke
Fight Odds: Duffy -400, Clarke +325
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Duffy 11.1k, Clarke 8.3k
Weight Class: 155
“Irish” Joe Duffy is your top priced fighter on the card this Thursday, and he’s the second heaviest favorite at -400 against Mitch Clarke.
Duffy fell short against Dustin Poirier in his last bout, but he had a heavy hype train following him since he defeated Conor McGregor prior to entering the UFC. He’s a very solid boxer and high level submission grappler, and he’s won 13 of his 14 pro fights by finish.
Clarke is an underrated submission fighter training out the MMA Lab and he’ll have a chance to win this fight if he can get Duffy to the ground. Unfortunately, even if he does get the fight down, I think Duffy’s grappling skills are good enough to at least compete, and that makes Clarke’s chances of winning relatively small.
On the feet, Duffy has a big speed and power advantage and you have to lean his way strongly. I expect Duffy to be popular and I think he’s worth the price tag, although he’s by no means a must play. Vegas tagged him with a wins inside distance prop of -110 which is pretty solid, but it would not at all surprise me if this fight went the distance.
Clarke has a finish prop of +525 and I really don’t see the upside for him. I think it’s worth having a bit of exposure to Duffy in tournaments, and I wouldn’t talk you out of rostering him in cash games, but I’d be careful about overexposing yourself to this fight.
Fight Prediction: Duffy by Decision
Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina
Fight Odds: Pyle -115, Mina -105
Odds to finish: -160
Salaries: Pyle 9.9k, Mina 9.5k
Weight Class: 170
I’m definitely intrigued by Mike Pyle vs. Alberto Mina from a fantasy perspective and it’s one of the closest fights to call on the card.
Mike Pyle is an MMA veteran with 38 professional fights, and while he’s on the decline, most of his skills are still there. He won his most recent fight by 3rd round TKO against Sean Spencer, and he’s a BJJ blackbelt with high-level submission skills. What’s most concerning about Pyle is his chin, as he’s been knocked out in 3 of his past 11 fights and has been rocked in many more than that.
Mina is still undefeated after a TKO victory against Shinsho Anzai and a decision win against Yoshihiro Akiyama. He’s a high-level submission grappler but he often chooses to strike, where his strong chin and knockout power come into play. He’s not a great striker, but he’s versatile and seems to know how to find his opponent’s chin as he’s earned five TKO victories to go along with six submissions.
I don’t see either fighter having a huge edge on the ground, at the very least it’s hard to predict one, so I think this fight will take place primarily on the feet. I actually think Pyle is the more technical fighter here but I’m really concerned about his ability to take damage over 15 minutes. It wouldn’t completely shock me to see Pyle score another knockout even though Mina has never been finished, as Mina seems more than hittable.
For the mid-tier prices and the expected low ownership, I think both fighters are worth a look in tournaments. I prefer Mina for the above reasons, which Vegas backs up with a +195 prop to win inside the distance, compared to the +220 prop of Pyle, which is still decent.
Fight Prediction: Mina by TKO, RD 2
John Makdessi vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Fight Odds: Makdessi -115, Baghdad -105
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Makdessi 10.5k, Baghdad 8.9k
Weight Class: 155
I’m pretty high on this fight from a fantasy perspective even though it’s not likely to end in a quick finish. Both John Makdessi and Medhi Baghdad are technical kickboxers and I expect this to be a stand-up war.
Baghdad lost his first fight in the UFC to Chris Wade by submission in a couple minutes, but he was taking that fight on short notice and it wasn’t a great stylistic matchup. Now that he won’t be worried about the takedown, I expect him to let his hands go, and he’ll have a seven inch reach on Makdessi which should play to his advantage. I definitely think Makdessi is the more technical fighter of the two though, and his training at Tristar works to his favor.
I also like the fact that Makdessi has landed 5.34 significant strikes per minute during his UFC career, but what I’m concerned about is his price tag of 10.5k. The current odds on this fight are only -115 to -105 in favor of Makdessi, which signals a very competitive, coin-toss type fight, but Makdessi is priced like a significant favorite. Even though he’s capable of landing 100 strikes in a decision win, that price will put me off him in a majority of lineups.
On the flip side, DraftKings has priced Baghdad at 8.9k, which means he’s extremely undervalued. I’m not sure how high of an ownership he’ll carry based on his last performance in the UFC, but I think he makes for a solid play in all formats and he’s one of my favorite value plays on the night.
Fight Prediction: Baghdad by Decision
Anthony Birchak vs. Dileno Lopes
Fight Odds: Birchak -255, Lopes +215
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Birchak 10.7k, Lopes 8.7k
Weight Class: 135
This fight between Anthony Birchak and Dileno Lopes is another I’m excited about from a fantasy perspective.
Birchak has fought three times inside the Octagon and his fights have all ended within the first round. Lopes lost his UFC debut against Reginaldo Vieira for the TUF Brazil Finale, but he’s been a finisher throughout his career, winning 16 of his 18 victories by finish and 12 by submission.
More specifically, Lopes has won nine fights by guillotine and he jumped guard to attempt a guillotine multiple times in the fight against Vieira. I absolutely hate that from a strategy perspective because you will almost always end up on your back if the guillotine isn’t successful, but it’s obviously a good way to end the fight. Simply for that reason, I think Lopes is in play in tournaments for the quick submission upside and price.
Birchak is pretty expensive, but if he can keep the fight standing, he should have a distinct advantage, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him pour on the strikes late in the fight and possibly end up with a finish. His price is a little too high to warrant heavy exposure, but he’s worth a look.
Fight Prediction: Birchak by Decision
Russell Doane vs. Pedro Munhoz
Fight Odds: Munhoz -245, Doane +205
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Munhoz 10.4k, Doane 9k
Weight Class: 135
Pedro Munhoz is one of the better fighters in the 135 lb. division and he’s showcased both his striking and exceptional grappling in four fights in the UFC.
Doane has had his ups and downs in the UFC, but his most recent performance against Jerrod Sanders was a bit pitiful. Doane is an aggressive fighter but he makes many mistakes in transition and had his back taken in all three rounds. If he gives up his back to Munhoz, I expect the Brazilian to win by submission.
I just think Munhoz is the more technical fighter in every area of this match and he has the upside to finish, so I’m willing to pay the price on him. The finish prop on Doane sits at +650 which is way too high for me to have any exposure to.
Fight Prediction: Munhoz by Guillotine, RD 2
Felipe Arantes vs. Jerrod Sanders
Fight Odds: Arantes -165, Sanders +145
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Arantes 10.6k, Sanders 8.8k
Weight Class: 135
This should definitely be a close fight between Felipe Arantes and Jerrod Sanders, but I only plan to have exposure to Arantes on DraftKings.
Arantes has seven TKO finishes and five submission victories in his professional career, and I definitely think he’s the higher level finisher. Vegas gave him a wins inside distance prop of +195 compared to the +595 of Sanders, who holds two TKOs and six submission victories in his career.
On the feet I favor Arantes even though the stand-up could be back and forth, and on the ground I also favor Arantes. The problem is that Arantes doesn’t have the best takedown defense and I could definitely see Sanders taking advantage of that and getting Arantes on his back. Fortunately, Arantes is dangerous from his back and he’s capable of securing a submission from there or in transition, and Sanders defensive grappling is less than ideal.
I see the route to victory for Sanders if his offensive wrestling can get going, but I just don’t think he’s worth targeting, even in a decision win. I’m not super confident in Arantes getting the job done but he has enough upside for me to invest in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Arantes by Triangle, RD 2
Gilbert Burns vs. Lukasz Sajewski
Fight Odds: Burns -255, Sajewski +215
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Burns 10.8k, Sajewski 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
I expect Gilbert Burns to be a popular pick against Lukasz Sajewski, and I can’t really disagree. Burns is one of the best submission grapplers in the UFC and he’s a real threat to win inside the distance every time he steps into the Octagon.
Sajewski is a decent prospect but his upside is limited, and he came away with a decision loss to Nick Hein in his UFC debut. It’s not like he looked awful, but he was more or less controlled by Hein, and I can’t see him turning it around and beating a guy like Burns.
Burns has worked on his striking enough so that he’ll have a good opportunity to win if the fight stays standing, but he will most likely look to get the fight to the mat early and work the submission. He’s a great tournament option for 10.8k, but I have concerns about him for cash games, mostly because his floor and striking output are low. If the fight ends in a decision, I’m not sure he’ll score that many points.
Sajewski is cheap at 8.6k but I won’t be on him in this fight, his upside is too limited with a finish prop of +775 and I expect Burns to come away with the victory.
Fight Prediction: Burns by RNC, RD 2
Marco Beltran vs. Reginaldo Vieira
Fight Odds: Vieira -130, Beltran +110
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Vieira 10.2k, Beltran 9.2k
Weight Class: 135
Even though these two hold a combined 3-0 record in the UFC, I’m not high on either fighter. Reginaldo Vieira won TUF Brazil over Dileno Lopes but it was not very convincing and I don’t expect him to have overwhelming success in the Octagon.
Vieira is 13-3 in his professional career and he’s earned nine of those wins by submission, including six by guillotine, but he has no TKO finishes. Similarly to Lopes, I think Vieira is worth a shot in tournaments just for the potential that he jumps guillotine quickly and locks it in.
He’s half-decent on the feet but I think Marco Beltran is probably the better boxer, although I’m no way confident about that. What concerns me about Beltran is that he’s looked extremely passive and has landed at a low output in his two UFC wins. He likes to lead with a front kick and he’s a very singular striker, and Vegas has his finish prop at +425 which is terrible for a fighter with +110 odds.
I think Vieira takes a decision in this fight based on his aggression but a small dose of him in tournaments is the only play I’m willing to take from this bout.
Fight Prediction: Vieira by Decision
Vincente Luque vs. Alvaro Herrera
Fight Odds: Luque -450, Herrera +360
Odds to finish: -250
Salaries: Luque 10.9k, Herrera 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
It’s hard to be extra confident in Vincente Luque, but he comes into this fight against Alvaro Herrera at -450 and as the biggest favorite on the night. He’s only priced at 10.9k and is the third most expensive fighter, so there’s a good amount of price value on him.
After a tough loss to Michael Graves where Luque was taken down nine times, Luque won with an impressive anaconda choke against Hayder Hassan. He’s scored four submissions in his career to go along with three TKOs and he trains out of the Blackzilians camp. Herrera won by KO in just a few seconds in his UFC debut against Vernon Ramos, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance.
Herrera is a powerful striker but he’s pretty slow on his feet and should be at a speed disadvantage here. He supposedly possesses good wrestling against the cage and if he’s still training out of Jackson’s camp, he’s likely to improve, but as a fighter who couldn’t even make the finale of TUF Latin America, he’s still the sizeable underdog.
With a finish prop of -140, Luque makes for a solid play in all formats.
Fight Prediction: Luque by TKO, RD 2