UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! It’s a small Sunday card in Sweden, but there’s nothing like watching fights with my breakfast!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.
Make sure to hop in the Premium Chat Sunday as well to hang out and watch fights with us!
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Misha Cirkunov, $9,300
There are a handful of great plays at the top of the salary charts this week, but one of the safest bets on the board is Misha Cirkunov who comes in at 9.3k. I like him in part because there are three fighters priced above him, so you get a bit of savings dropping down to Cirkunov. He’s also a massive favorite against Volkan Oezdemir at -485, with an amazing ITD prop of -167.
If this fight plays out on the feet I think it will be close, Oezdemir has some skill there and is coming off a nice win against Ovince Saint Preux, but I’m not too concerned about Oezdemir finishing the fight with an ITD prop of +584. And if he can’t finish the fight standing, I think Cirkunov can take over and put up a strong score.
Cirkunov should have a huge advantage on the ground, and I expect him to land a few takedowns and passes as the fight progresses, and he also has a good chance to earn a submission. He’ll be popular, but I think there are enough reasons to target Cirkunov and his safety in cash games (and all formats), so he’s definitely one of my favorite plays this week.
2. Damir Hadzovic, $6,600
As I mentioned at the top there are so many strong plays and huge favorites on this card, which means there’s little value below the mid-range. I’m sure some underdog will sneak out the victory below 7.5k, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they all lost. And if you are taking a handful of mid-range underdogs, that will leave you with less salary for the top tier.
So in cash games, I’m strongly considering punting with Damir Hadzovic for 6.6k. Even though he’s the cheapest fighter on the card, there are four other fighters who have worse odds to win than him, so he has some built in odds value. That price savings will also allow you to load up at the top, which is one of my goals in cash games this week.
I’m honestly not expecting Hadzovic to win, but his fight against Marcin Held is projected to last at least 2.5 rounds, which means Hadzovic can earn a fair amount of significant strikes in a loss. Even in a worst case scenario with Hadzovic losing early, he’d save you so much $, and there will likely be so many other losing underdogs that it still won’t kill your chances to cash.
Tournament Plays
1. Abdul Razak Alhassan, $9,100
I didn’t have to think twice about this play and neither will the rest of the field, but you definitely need to have tournament exposure to Abdul Razak Alhassan this weekend. He’s not the biggest favorite on the card, but he still comes in at -265 with an ITD prop of -165, which is extreme upside for the price.
Digging further, Alhassan has a prop to win in the first round at +100, which means he essentially has a 50 percent chance. His record backs up those numbers too, because he’s 7-0 with seven first round knockouts, all coming in less than one minute and 30 seconds. His only UFC fight was a dominant performance against Charlie Ward, and although Omari Akhmedov is a tougher challenge, a first round finish is still very much in play.
The biggest questions for Alhassan are what happens if he gets out of the first two minutes, or the first round. That’s a question I can’t answer, and based on how explosive he is early, there’s a good chance he will gas himself out. But that’s why this is a tournament play, if he loses so be it, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take. I expect him to be the highest owned fighter on the night, and I do think you should have a couple lineups without him based on that, in case he doesn’t come through.
Still, Alhassan has massive upside for the price and he’s a clear, elite tournament play this weekend.
2. Pedro Munhoz, $9,500
Another one of many great tournament options is Pedro Munhoz, who’s pretty expensive at 9.5k. But that price doesn’t even indicate how strong of a favorite he is, coming in at -850 with an ITD prop of -120.
Munhoz isn’t the best fighter in the world but this is a great matchup for him against Damian Stasiak. Munhoz strikes at a fairly high volume, and Stasiak doesn’t strike at all. Instead, Stasiak is forced to use his wrestling and top control grappling over and over again, and he’s really not that great at it.
So if this fight stays standing, Munhoz should win fairly easily, but what happens if Stasiak shoots for takedowns? Well, Munhoz is one of the best submission grapplers in the UFC and he has one of the best guillotine’s I’ve ever seen. Even when he’s out of position for it he can turn it into a success, and even if he misses the first opportunity and is put on his back, I think he can outscramble Stasiak and choke him out anyway.
I expect Stasiak to shoot for single-leg takedowns early and that will give Munhoz the opportunity he needs to get a finish. My main concern is that Munhoz uses that grappling defensively and chooses to outstrike Stasiak for three rounds, which would still give him a strong score, but it wouldn’t fully pay off. That’s a possible outcome, but his odds to win in the first round are also +250 and that’s too good to pass up.
Fade of the Week
1. Joaquim Silva, $8,700
There are so many great options this week but we can’t choose everyone, and one of the plays I’m least excited about is Joaquim Silva, who costs 8.7k. He’s coming off the performance of his life against Andrew Holbrook, winning by KO in the first minute. But I think that was more or less a fluke, and now he’s facing a durable veteran in Reza Madadi who has never been knocked out.
Is it possible, sure.. but I’m not investing heavily in an overhyped guy to win by KO against a veteran who has never been KO’d..
I also have questions about Silva’s grappling and I think it’s possible Madadi exploits that, so I’m really not even confident Silva wins this fight. For the price especially, I’m out on Silva this weekend.
Weak Chin of the Week
1. Trevor Smith, $7,300
I actually like Trevor Smith this week and I think he makes for a decent underdog play, and I also expect him to be popular against Chris Camozzi, who has struggled with grapplers in the past. It’s a decent spot for Smith, but he also has arguably the weakest chin on the card, and that’s a concern.
Smith is 14-7 with four TKO losses, and all four came in the first minute of the fight (essentially). I don’t think highly of Camozzi’s punching power, but he is probably the better striker and I wouldn’t be shocked if he hits Smith with an awkward shot and puts him away.
Personally, I will have exposure to both fighters this weekend for the reasons I suggested above, because although I prefer Smith for his price, I do have concerns about his chin.