UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
Some big cards are on the horizon, including UFC 229 with Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov that will take place in early October, and I can’t wait. For now, the UFC is headed to Russia for the first time in a Saturday morning card that actually has several solid prospects.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Merab Dvalishvili, 9.2k
When targeting players for cash game purposes, it would be ideal to have a fighter who is safe to win and has a high floor regardless of the outcome. I think we get that with Merab Dvalishvili at 9.2k.
Even in two UFC losses, Dvalishvili has scored more than 70 points. He’s a high volume wrestler and has landed 8.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. His opponent this week is Terrion Ware, who is a worse wrestler than either of Dvalishvili’s past two opponents, so I expect several takedowns to be landed again.
And Dvalishvili is a massive -500 favorite, but only priced at 9.2k so we get a bit of savings off the very top tier. He’s a strong play in all formats, but an easy cash game option this weekend.
2. Kajan Johnson, 6.7k
There are several massive favorites this weekend and I’d like to fit as many as I can into cash games. The problem is that they all cost a lot of money, and we need to save somewhere.
Once you hit the 7.5k range, you are left with big underdogs who are likely to lose and potentially get finished. So I have no problem dropping all the way down to Kajan Johnson at 6.7k who can allow me some salary relief.
The other good part about Johnson, even though he could get smashed, is that his fight is -175 to go the distance. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather risk targeting a huge underdog who can actually last a few rounds as opposed to one who is likely to get finished quickly. There’s nothing amazing about Johnson and he might only score 10 points in a loss, but he does provide savings and some chance to go the distance, and that’s about all I need for the price.
Tournament Plays
1. Magomed Ankalaev, 9.1k
One of the many strong tournament options this week is Magomed Ankalaev who comes in at 9.1k.
He’s a massive -400 favorite with a -131 line to win inside the distance, but he costs several hundred dollars less than the top tier of options. He’ll be fighting Marcin Prachnio who was knocked out by Sam Alvey in round one in his UFC debut, and there’s definite potential Ankalaev can pull off something similar.
Even if Ankalaev doesn’t get a knockout, he can also take the fight down and work his ground-and-pound for a finish. Regardless, Ankalaev definitely has 100 point upside and tournament-winning potential, and that’s all I care about. And for the cheaper than usual price tag, I think he makes for a strong play.
2. Mark Hunt, 8.6k
The Main Event is always a strong target for tournaments and cash games, and the favorite this week is Mark Hunt at 8.6k.
Hunt is always a boom or bust option, which is fine for tournaments. He’ll be fighting Alexey Oleinik who is a grappling specialist and will try to submit Hunt quickly. If that doesn’t happen, Hunt will have a massive striking advantage and will have real potential to win by knockout.
Hunt is -150 to win and -125 to win ITD, so his metrics line up well. And he’s not too expensive, he’s easy to roster.
There are many good tournament plays on this slate but Hunt is definitely one of them and I would make sure to get some exposure here, even when making five lineups or less.
Fade of the Week
1. Rustam Khabilov, 9.5k
I mentioned it with Kajan Johnson but this fight Khabilov vs. Johnson is -175 to end in a decision. And Khabilov holds a massive 9.5k price tag.
He’s a massive favorite as well at -710 but he’s only +190 to win ITD. With so many good options, he absolutely needs 110 or more points to even sniff the optimal lineup, and based on his slow pace, that has to come with a finish.
I’m not implying it’s impossible, but a quick finish from Khabilov is not very likely and even if it happens, it’s not going to ruin your chances of a big night. I’d rather pay up or down from Khabilov and he’s simply too expensive for me to invest much in him this weekend.