UFC Fight Night: Johnson vs. Reis Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We have a fun, free card this week and there’s plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.
If you want to check out the podcast from myself and gravycakes breaking down the entire card, you can watch that here.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS, Expert Rankings, Projections and access to our Premium Chat, you can find that all here.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tom Duquensoy, $9,300
There are two massive favorites on this card, Demetrious Johnson and Tom Duquensoy. I’m sure you’ve heard of the former but the latter is a 23-year-old newcomer with the biggest European hype-train since Conor McGregor.
Duquensoy is a -780 favorite which is incredible considering it’s his UFC debut, and he carries an ITD prop of -210, which is the highest on the card. I love Johnson, but he’s extremely expensive at 9.8k and Duquensoy offers a bit of savings at $500 cheaper.
He’s taking on Patrick Williams which is why the odds are so high, Williams has some decent offensive wrestling and a bit of power in his hands, but unless he hurts Duquensoy badly in the first two minutes of this fight, he’s not going to win. Duquensoy is a far superior muay-thai striker and the longer this fight lasts, the easier it will be for him to hurt Williams.
I think Duquensoy has enough of an overall game to defend the early barrage and get a finish of his own, and I’m willing to take the chance on him at 9.3k.
2. Wilson Reis, $6,400
This card has an interesting makeup because there are so many large favorites, and they’re all expensive. If you can’t afford fighters above 9.6k you’ll be forced to target the mid-range where there is much more risk and uncertainty. There are a few cheap fighters I’m considering in cash games, but once I drop below Robert Whittaker, I don’t think there’s anyone worth playing until you get all the way down to Wilson Reis.
I don’t think Reis is going to win and there’s a potential for him to get finished early, but I feel similarly about every other fighter below 7.5k. In cash games, I think it’s a smart strategy to punt with Reis and take the massive savings to use on other favorites you are comfortable with.
The over/under on the Johnson/Reis fight is Over 3.5 Rounds -160, which means Vegas expects it to last a while. If Reis can last three, four or five rounds like Vegas projects, he’s very capable of scoring 30-50 points, and I think that’s more than enough to pay off the 6.4k price tag. If you can afford Demetrious Johnson in cash games this weekend by all means plug him in, but it’s not easy, and punting with Reis is one way to get you there.
Tournament Plays
1. Zak Cummings, $9,400
I like every fighter priced at 8.9k and above and I think all have a reasonable chance at scoring 100 points, so it may be tough to pick out exactly who gets the highest score. We can be pretty sure that Mighty Mouse will gain some ownership at the top, and I expect Duquensoy to be popular as well, which makes Zak Cummings an interesting play at 9.4k.
Cummings may go overlooked but he has the second highest ITD line at -150, and he has multiple ways to finish this fight. Not only is he an excellent submission grappler but he has power in his hands. His opponent Nathan Coy is a veteran, but he’s already been submitted in the UFC by lesser competition, and he’s been knocked out multiple times in his career.
With a lower projected ownership and a high chance to finish inside the distance, Zak Cummings is definitely worth a look in tournaments.
2. Andrew Sanchez, $8,900
Another fighter who I expect to be overlooked is Andrew Sanchez, who comes in at 8.9k as a -340 favorite. With Aljamain Sterling, Tim Elliot, Tom Duquensoy, Rashid Magomedov, Zak Cummings and Demetrious Johsnon priced around him, I think most people will look to gain some extra dollars and spend up.
Sanchez isn’t the most prolific finisher and he’s coming off an mediocre performance against a mediocre opponent. It’s easy to pass him by, but not only is he a large favorite, he has a really high ITD prop of +125, one of the best on the card.
Sanchez is a four-time All-American wrestler and a two-time National Champion, so his best bet to get the finish is by taking the fight to the ground. His opponent Anthony Smith is dangerous on the feet for a bit, but he doesn’t have great takedown defense. I think there’s a good chance Sanchez looks to wrestle early and racks up a good amount of takedowns and passes.
Even if he wins by decision, those grappling points may be enough for him to score well, but the added chance of a finish at low ownership makes him a strong target.
Fade of the Week
1. Aljamain Sterling, $8,800
Of all the high-priced fighters this weekend, I’m least interested in Aljamain Sterling for 8.8k.
Sterling is a high-level fighter but his style isn’t suitable for fantasy MMA. He likes to stand at range and throw kicks, and he never gets into a brawl. That not only limits his offensive potential, but it limits the offense of his opponent as well. Sterling only absorbs 1.22 significant strikes per minute which is extremely low.
The best option for Sterling to make value is if somehow knocks out his opponent Augusto Mendes, who’s shown to be a little chinny in the past, but Sterling hasn’t shown enough power in his hands to knock fighters out cold.
To other option for Sterling is landing a heavy amount of takedowns and passes. Even if Sterling wanted to grapple, I don’t think it would be the best idea as Mendes is a world-class submission grappler. My guess is that he’ll keep range for the majority of the fight, and I’m not willing to take the chance on it.
Weak Chin of the Week
1. Devin Clark
This isn’t the most concerned I’ve been with a fighter, but I am still concerned with Devin Clark’s chin and I think it’s worth noting. He was knocked out cold in his UFC debut by a short bunny shot from a weird position, a situation you rarely see a fighter take damage in.
Clark was able to get past his next opponent, but I’m still concerned. You just don’t see a fighter go out the way he did and it not come back a second time around. Maybe he gets through this fight, and the next, but I think we’ll see his chin fail sooner or later and this may be the spot for it.