UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! I’ll be breaking down some of my favorite cash plays, tournament plays, and my fade of the week for UFC Belfast, which features the rematch between Gegard Mousasi and Uriah Hall.
If you want access to my full fight breakdowns, plus Expert Rankings, Projections and access to the Premium Chat, you can get that all here for only $5!
ALSO, there’s a completely separate card taking place Saturday night as well, UFC Brazil, which features Ryan Bader vs. Little Nog in the main event. I will be posting a Quick Picks article and Expert Rankings for that card in Premium as well, for no additional cost!
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Gegard Mousasi, $9,600
Gegard Mousasi was knocked out by Uriah Hall in the first meeting between the two, on a spinning back kick that led to a fury of ground-and-pound. But before that happened, Mousasi was dominating the fight, and he was well on his way to victory.
I’m looking past the first fight and locking Mousasi into my cash games this weekend. He’s the heaviest favorite on the card at -550, with an ITD prop of -140, and he’s the odds on favorite to be the top scoring fighter on the night.
With the new, grappling based scoring system, I think Mousasi can rack up the takedowns and passes before finishing Hall, and a score of 100 points or more is well within reach. Unless Hall knocks him out with another crazy kick, Mousasi should win this fight. Even at 9.6k, I think Mousasi should be the first fighter you lock in Saturday.
2. Teruto Ishihara, $8,900
Coming off two consecutive knockouts, I’m looking for a way to fit Teruto Ishihara into my cash lineups for 8.9k. He’s fairly priced as a -255 favorite and climbing, against Conor McGregor’s training partner Artem Lobov.
Lobov hasn’t looked great in the UFC outside his victory over Chris Avila, but Avila isn’t a UFC-level fighter, and Ishihara should have a lot of advantages on paper. He’ll be the quicker fighter, and he fights at a higher pace, and he trains out of Team Alpha Male now.
Ishihara isn’t a LOCK to win, but he’s listed at a good price, and his significant striking rate of 5.54 per minute gives him a solid floor, even if he weren’t able to earn a victory. Still, I like his chances against the slower and less technical Lobov, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ishihara take home another stoppage victory.
Tournament Plays
1. Mark Godbeer, $8,000
In tournaments, I’m looking for high upside fighters, who can score a quick knockout, even if they aren’t super safe to win. Mark Godbeer fits that mold, and he’s making his UFC debut against Justin Ledet, who’s 1-0 in the UFC.
Ledet is a solid boxer and makes for a good target himself, but I think less people will be on Godbeer because he’s unknown, and I think he’s the more likely of the two to get a quick stoppage. Godbeer doesn’t strike at a fast pace, but he hits hard, and he’s earned 11 stoppages in his 11 pro wins.
I also think Godbeer has fought better competition than Ledet, and adding that advantage on top of his power advantage could come into play. Ledet may hit Godbeer more, but I expect Godbeer to land something heavy early on in this fight, and I definitely want exposure to him in tournaments.
2. Abdul Razak Alhassan, $9,400
Abdul Razak Alhassan is only 6-0, but he’s making his UFC debut against another McGregor training partner Charlie Ward, who’s only 3-1 in his career.
Not only is Alhassan more experienced, but he’s earned six TKO victories in 6ish minutes of cage time, which is super impressive. Ward is a boxer who could give Alhassan fits, and he also has a decent takedown, but Alhassan is a big favorite at -335 and has huge upside in this fight.
Outside of the experience level, Alhassan looks to be the better pure athlete and he likes to land massive kicks, and I just don’t know if Ward has enough tools to keep up. This may come down to who lands the hardest shot first, but I’m favoring Alhassan and I think he’s an excellent tournament play. He’s also priced only $200 less than Mousasi, which means he probably will be underowned, and that just puts me on him even more.
Fade of the Week
1. Ross Pearson, $8,500
I actually like Ross Pearson to win this fight against Stevie Ray, but it’s his price that bothers me. This card is loaded with huge upside at the top range, and there’s also a ton of upside in the mid range, but Pearson is 8.5k, and I’m not sure where he fits in.
Ray is a tough dude and I’d be surprised if Pearson can finish him, his ITD prop is below +300 which isn’t very good. Pearson is also only a -120 favorite, which means he’s overpriced for 8.5k. Even though I think he takes a decision, I don’t think he has the upside needed in tournaments, and I can’t roster him in cash games for that price.
2. Uriah Hall, $6,600
My bonus fade of the week is Uriah Hall at minimum price. I normally am all about the main event and I’ll roster both sides in cash, as well as in tournaments but I just don’t see it with Hall this week.
I still think people will be on him a bit, and I think his floor is extremely low. He doesn’t strike at a high output so it’s a knockout or bust for Hall, and with an ITD prop of +647, I’d rather just fade him completely.