UFC Fight Week: TUF and UFC 213 Quick Picks
Welcome to an International Fight Week of Quick Picks! There are two UFC cards this week, the TUF Finale on Friday and UFC 213 on Saturday. The latter card has the heavy prize pools, but the early card should be great too.
I’ve thrown together a handful of my favorite plays from both events, including some extended “weak chin” notes at the bottom.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on BOTH cards, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the UFC 213 card in full on GrindersLive, which can be found here.
Editor’s Note: Amanda Nunes ill, out of UFC 213 on Saturday night.
Cash Game Plays
1. Curtis Blaydes, UFC 213, $9,500
I don’t care how expensive Curtis Blaydes is, I am going to play him in cash games. He opened around -400 when the salaries were released, and has since climbed up to -900, which is nuts for a HW fight but it shows how confident the public is.
I am also confident, but it’s not just the odds I like, it’s the stylistic matchup. Blaydes is a durable fighter, with a strong wrestling base and he’s facing an opponent in Daniel Omielanczuk who has had trouble defending the takedown against average competition. Blaydes is coming off an impressive 8-takedown performance, and I think he can score another handful of takedowns here.
He has the highest floor on the card bar none, and he has built in value based on his line. You can talk me off of him in tournaments based on the price, but in cash games, there’s no question he should be anchoring your lineups.
2. Jordan Johnson, TUF Finale, $8,700
One of my favorite cash game plays on the TUF Finale card is Jordan Johnson for 8.7k. A big part of it is his opponent, Marcel Fortuna, who still haunts my dreams after he KO’d Anthony Hamilton on short notice.
But I’m sticking with my original read here, I don’t think Fortuna is a great fighter and I think Johnson is in a good spot to take advantage. The other part is the grappling, of course, Johnson is going to need to get the takedowns going to win, and he showed success with that in his debut against Henrique da Silva. I think he can land a few takedowns and earn a decision, and for the price, I think he has a nice floor in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Travis Browne, UFC 213, $8,600
I don’t suspect Travis Browne will be massively popular on UFC 213, he hasn’t looked good in quite some time, but he’s in a good spot here and the numbers suggest he’s a strong tournament play. It’s not like I can be super confident in Browne, but he’s lost to some elite names and his now opponent Oleinik is a clear step down.
Oleinik has 41 career submission victories, and he has some power in his hands, but he’s at a massive disadvantage in fights if he cannot get the fight on the ground. Browne still has athleticism and is a good enough defensive wrestler that he should be able to keep the fight standing. He also has those trademark elbows against the cage when opponents look for the takedown.
Most importantly, Browne has an ITD prop of -140, which is very strong for 8.6k, and he has a +150 line to win in the first round. If he doesn’t win in the first round, he may not come through in tournaments, but if the odds are correct, they suggest his likelihood of a first round finish is around 40 percent, which is more than high enough to make him worth a target.
2. Jared Cannonier, TUF Finale, $8,900
Jared Cannonier was supposed to fight Steve Bosse in this spot, but Bosse fell out and Nick Roehrick stepped in short notice. Roehrick is an OK wrestler but I don’t think he’s good enough to take Cannonier down consistently, which means this fight should play out on the feet.
And if that happens, I’m taking the more powerful, more experienced, more technical striker in Cannonier and I think he probably puts him away early in the fight. The odds reflect that somewhat, Cannonier is -151 to win inside the distance, which is extremely high, and he carries a +135 line to win in the first round.
That tells me Cannonier has massive upside, and he doesn’t cost a ton at 8.9k, he’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Cody Stamann, UFC 213, $9,100
There’s not much I hate about Cody Stamann, but there’s enough reason to pause that I don’t think he’s worth the price tag of 9.1k. Stamann is making his UFC debut against Terrion Ware, and he looks like a solid athlete.
I think his biggest strength is wrestling, but he’s not a bad striker either. What I don’t love is his activity or his odds to finish. For his price, in tournaments, we really need him to beat out all of the other 9k+ fighters, right? It’s nearly impossible to have multiple 9k fighters on a winning tournament lineup, unless tons of underdogs win, and I can’t plan on that.
So Stamann needs to beat out the likes of Blaydes, Laprise, Font and Giles and I just don’t think he will. He may land a few takedowns, get some significant strikes and win a decision, but that probably won’t yield 90 points and that’s not good enough. His ITD line is +252, which is poor for his price and odds to win. He hasn’t shown to be a finisher on the regional circuit, and that likely won’t translate well to the UFC.
I do think he gets the job done, but I don’t think he’s worth 9.1k in tournaments.
2. Tecia Torres, TUF Finale, $9,100
Another 9.1k fighter, Tecia Torres is far too expensive to target in tournaments, even though she comes in as a -405 favorite. She can strike and wrestle, and she’ll probably get the victory, but I’m really concerned with her upside.
Torres has never finished a fight in her career and I don’t expect that to start here, neither do the oddsmakers. Torres has an ITD prop of +466 which is horrendous, especially for her odds to win and price.
There are simply plenty of other targets on this card, and Torres isn’t worth the price tag.
Weak Chins of the Week
1. C.B. Dolloway and Ed Herman, TUF Finale
C.B. Dolloway fights Ed Herman on the TUF Finale card, and neither have great chins. Both have been knocked out in two of their past three fights, and I think it’s likely someone gets put away here. It’s not a matchup to be super confident in, but it’s definitely a bout that could end with a finish, so there is upside worth targeting in tournaments.
2. Dhiego Lima, TUF Finale
Fortunately for Dhiego Lima, he’s fighting Jesse Taylor who is a super aggressive wrestler, so there’s little chance of a clean knockout. But Lima has a bad chin, and I expect him to get knocked out sooner or later, the same way he did in several of his early UFC fights.
3. Gray Maynard, TUF Finale
Gray Maynard has fought to three consecutive decisions, but he was knocked out in four of his previous five fights, and that doesn’t go away. He’s fighting Teruto Ishihara who has several knockout finishes of his own, and this looks like another matchup where he can take advantage. Ishihara should be popular, but I think he has a legitimate chance to take advantage of Maynard, and I like him as a tournament option.
4. Belal Muhammad, UFC 213
The chin on Belal Muhammad isn’t horrible, but I’m concerned with it enough to write him down. He was knocked out cold by Vincente Luque and had been rocked several times prior to that. He’s very hittable and now facing a technical kickboxer in Jordan Mein. There are questions with Mein’s game, and Muhammad has good value for his price, but I wouldn’t completely ignore Mein because there is a chance he can hurt Muhammad.