UFC Phoenix: Rodriguez vs. Penn Quick Picks

Article Image

Welcome a New Year’s edition of the UFC Quick Picks!

This week is arguably one of the worst cards of the year, and it’s a tough one to start out with but hey I’m just happy MMA is back in our lives. There are four HW/LHW fights in this one so that’s going to be important to navigate for tournaments.

I’ve made some adjustments to MMA Premium for this year, which you can find below, and you can subscribe here

— Updated Weekly Price to $5.99
— Two-Month Season Passes averaging $5 per event
NEW: Adding Ownership projections with myself and @BigMarley3
NEW: Adding Overall Tier to Expert Rankings

We’ll also be having a ton more free content this year, most of it hosted here or on the Daily Fantasy MMA YouTube channel, so please subscribe!

Myself, gravycakes and Mmathison04 spent nearly two hours talking UFC Phoenix on The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, which you can find on the link above.

There’s also still time to join the DraftKings Season Long MMA Championship we’ve created, which costs $100 to join. You can find information about that in the forums.

Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.

Cash Game Plays

1. Yair Rodriguez, $9,200

On a card where only fighter is heavier than a -250 favorite, my top cash play is Yair Rodriguez, who sits at a -445 favorite at 9.2k. He’s the most expensive card on the board, but again, in a card that lacks safety, he’s the best option we got.

He’s fighting BJ Penn, which is scary in a sense, but Penn hasn’t looked like his championship self in years, and he’s coming off a TKO loss to Frankie Edgar in 2014 that was disastrous. Now Penn is training with Greg Jackson, so there’s hope he’ll return to his old self, but I’m not counting on it.

I do think Rodriguez’ game is very flawed, but he’s in a five-round fight, and even if this goes to a decision, he has a high floor. Rodriguez strikes at a high enough rate to score well over 25 minutes, and I think he could land a takedown or two along the way, and potentially finish the fight. I’ll do my best to plug him into my cash lineup this weekend.

2. Nina Ansaroff, $8,100

Nina Ansaroff is a super random fighter to mark as my second best cash play I know, but hear me out. She’s priced at 8.1k along with her opponent Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, but Ansaroff comes in as a -145 favorite, so there’s clear odds value on here. Again, not a ton of safety so I’m looking for value anywhere I can get it.

Ansaroff trains with (and is dating) Bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes, and she also has Joanna Jedrzejczyk and others in her camp at ATT, which is important. Even though Ansaroff and Jones-Lybarger lost both of their first two UFC fights, Ansaroff looked solid to me. I think she’s the better striker and hits much harder, so I believe she’ll be able to win the majority of exchanges.

Jones-Lybarger isn’t a good enough athlete or skilled at any one area to be dangerous in the UFC, so I think she struggles again and Ansaroff gets her first UFC victory. Not a lock, but Ansaroff is good value so I’ll look to her in cash games.

Tournament Plays

1. Tony Martin, $8,900

One of my favorite tournament options is Tony Martin, I think he has the upside to score 120 points and I think he’s going to be under owned compared to fighters around him. There are so many obvious heavyweights, and Yair Rodriguez, that Martin might slide under the radar, but he’s in a good spot here.

Martin comes in as a -225 favorite with an ITD prop of +115, which is one of the best lines on the card. He’s a really solid wrestler and submission grappler, and if he gets the fight on the ground, I think he can lock in a submission.

Alex White isn’t a bad opponent, but he’s taking the fight on short notice and moving up a weight class. Really, it’s his grappling that has me looking at Martin. Offensively he’s fine, but defensively, I’ve seen him get taken down and put in bad spots by grapplers much worse than Martin, so I’m moderately confident Martin can take him into deep waters. On the feet it’s a difficult matchup for Martin, who doesn’t strike at a high output, but I’m here looking for upside and that’s what I care about in tournaments.

2. Joachim Christensen, $8,800

The toughest part about this card is that there are three HW fights and one LHW fight, so there could easily be four finishes from those four fights. Many of them are low-level and tough to predict, but likely a handful of those fighters will end up on winning lineups.

One fighter I like is Joachim Christensen, who’s fighting Bojan Mihajlovic at LHW. You might remember Mihajlovic as the guy brought in short notice to get knocked out by Francis Ngannou, which he did in like one minute.

I doubt Christensen will do the same, but I do think he’s the better fighter and in a good spot to finish. He’s priced at 8.8k as a -240 favorite, with an ITD prop of +138. Christensen is a decent boxer, he has decent power, and a grappler. That doesn’t at all mean he’s incapable of losing, he’s actually coming off a weird submission loss in his debut.

I’m just not sure Mihajlovic has the skills to beat him up or finish him, and based on what I’ve seen from him in and out of the UFC, Christensen is in a good spot to finish.

Fade of the Week

1. Marcin Held, $7,700

I could go with some easy low level options here, but I’m using Marcin Held as my fade of the week. I will admit I’m a Joe Lauzon homer, so there may be some bias here, but I just think this is a really tough matchup for Held.

Similarly to his debut against Diego Sanchez, there’s not really an area where Held has a big advantage. His biggest strength is his submission grappling, specifically leg locks. But Lauzon is a really good and experienced leg locker, and I think he’s going to completely neutralize that aspect. Held isn’t the best wrestler either, so I don’t see him taking down and controlling Lauzon.

On the feet Held can compete, but Lauzon will be the aggressor and Held is just so comfortable off his back and in grappling exchanges that I don’t see him consistently beating Lauzon at range. I’m calling it a fade because the odds on this fight are dead even at -110, which I really don’t understand. You can certainly argue that Held is a value based on those odds, but I just don’t like the matchup and I don’t like his floor or ceiling.

About the Author

bbbomb
Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.