2023 U.S. Open Golf Betting Tips: Los Angeles Country Club Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:28:10

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 U.S. Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on U.S. Open DFS Pick’em entries this week!.

The PGA Tour makes its way back to the West Coast for the U.S. Open. Los Angeles Country Club will host a PGA tournament for the first time since 1940, and what a way to make a return to the game. After the Canadian Open delivered in a huge way, this week promises to be quite the spectacle, featuring one of the better fields we will see throughout the entire season. Brooks Koepka and his LIV brethren are back amidst the controversial potential merger. Will LIV win another tournament? Will one of the California kids take advantage of the home field?

Let’s get into the field and odds first and then talk about the course, Los Angeles Country Club.

2023 U.S. Open at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – June 12th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The U.S. Open:

• 2022 – Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
• 2021 – Jon Rahm (-6)
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
• 2019 – Gary Woodland (-13)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (+1)
• 2017 – Brooks Koepka (-16)

The field will be one of the strongest we see all season. 150 players will play this week with the top 60 and ties making the cut for the weekend. The USGA cuts off past champions at ten years, so players like Martin Kaymer will still play in the field. Unlike The Masters, though, players do not receive a lifetime exemption. Further, instead of teaching pros and a bevy of amateurs playing the field, the bottom of the field will be comprised of players that qualified across the country in qualifiers for the event. A Michael Block story is very unlikely this week because most of the spots are filled with tour professionals that qualified.

As for players that are missing in action, Talor Gooch is probably the most curious absence, given the PGA not accepting his exemption. Will Zalatoris, Tiger Woods, and Daniel Berger are the other notable players who will be out due to injury.

The LIV contingent is back with Brooks Koepka headlining the “outsiders.” After his win at the PGA Championship, Koepka renewed his reputation as a big-game hunter on tour — playing his best in the toughest fields and at the toughest courses. A two-time winner of the U.S. Open, Koepka has a penchant for these events when healthy.

Let’s dig into Los Angeles Country Club.

2023 U.S. Open Betting Preview

• Course: The Los Angeles Country Club
• Date: June 15 – 18
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,426
• Greens: Bentgrass

While the scorecard reads long, Los Angeles Country Club is filled with downhill fairways that are going to bleed distance off of the scorecard frequently. The standard for the USGA is typically to lean on narrow fairways and extremely long rough. Instead, the Bermuda rough that lines the course is a bigger concern around the greens. The course features very wide fairways with ample landing areas. The typical bomb and gauge discussion that comes to light for nearly every U.S. Open will be diminished. Instead, precision will be important as players will find themselves blocked on the wrong side of fairways.

As expected, The greens are small, tricky, firm, and fast. Running at a 13, putting will surely be a challenge. However, the greater challenge will likely be navigating the thick deep Bermuda rough surrounding each green. As is the case, approach play is of paramount importance. Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, and Justin Thomas will excel if they can dial in their irons as a handful of the most precise players on tour.

We must consider scoring in the most difficult conditions when modeling as well as what players in the field are the most proficient at avoiding bogeys. Given the vast area for players to land drives, players like Cameron Smith that struggle off-the-tee but excel in every category for second shot and in, must be considered. Matt Fitzpatrick will gain some traction, as well, as a proven commodity when conditions are at their toughest.

The course is composed of five Par 3’s, three Par 5’s, and ten par 4’s. There are a 284 and 290-yard Par 3’s (yikes), but we will need to see how elevation impacts those holes. My initial gut is to survive these holes and look for birdie opportunities elsewhere.

The Par 5 first seems like a must-birdie hole as well as the very short Par 4 6th. The USGA loves including potentially driveable Par 4’s to give players a decision. Given the elevation of this hole, we will expect players to give it a go.

The closing stretch of this course appears to be a bear. Get the live bets ready for Sunday evening. At 542, 520, and 492 yards, birdies don’t seem to be a consideration to close the course. Instead, who will be able to stay relaxed and close the course with pars?

We don’t have any data on the course and how it’s played. Max Homa has a course record here and Collin Morikawa has plenty of positive experience at the course. Otherwise, given the layout and the information at hand, we should prioritize SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Ball-striking, ARG play, putting, and Bogey Avoidance. We will also filter strokes gained for the toughest conditions, given that this course seems poised to represent a typically challenging USGA setup.

Let’s turn our attention to some golfers teeing it up this week in Los Angeles.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Viktor Hovland +1600

Let’s open up this blurb with the appropriate waxing on about Vik’s recent form. We don’t have a hotter golfer than Vik in recent big events. Finally breaking through at a large scale at the Memorial, Viktor Hovland is starting to ascend to his expectation coming out of Oklahoma State.

Hovland sits inside the top ten in every major ball-striking category over his last 24 rounds — including an ever-important 7th in SG: Approach. With Vik, those 24 rounds are at the highest level of competition save his exploits at the Charles Schwab. He is not gaining strokes at weaker-field events. He is gaining strokes against the best fields on tour.

Now, for my own personal interest. With my RBC Canadian Open outrights from last week, I paired each of them for a pittance with Vik to win the U.S. Open… just in case I finally get one through, I was going to place a large wager on Vik this week. Now, I don’t have to after Nick Taylor won the Canadian Open. We have a whopping 250 units on Vik to win the U.S. Open. Golf outright betting is quite the animal. After a rough season, Vik has the potential to lock in a profitable year!

Tommy Fleetwood +4000

After coming up short at the Canadian Open, Tommy Fleetwood was very gracious in the moment. Despite a career without a PGA Tour victory, Fleetwood seems to take everything in stride. Fortunately, Fleetwood is trending in the correct decision heading into a course that should suit him.

Given that the most rough to contend with at LA Country Club rests around the greens, Fleetwood’s recent form with his short game must make him a contender. He struck the ball exceptionally well in Canada and delivered on and around the greens with the exception of a few missed late opportunities. We could be singing a completely different tune if Nick Taylor doesn’t roll in the longest putt of his career.

At his price, I think Fleetwood presents a phenomenal mid-range option this week.

Justin Thomas +4500

Well, I can’t believe we are at a time where we can wager dollars on Justin Thomas at north of 40/1. However, in this field, we cannot fault the rationale of the oddsmakers. While I expect this number to creep back into the thirties, Thomas just has not gotten it done as of late and is surrounded by a bunch of golfers who are steadily getting it done.

While he is a wizard on approach and this course demands excellent approach play, his short game has not helped him at all of late. The ARG play is steady, but the putter has been ice-cold. Further, instead of sitting in the top 5 in approach over his last 24 rounds, Thomas is actually 25th. While that is still excellent, Thomas needs to throw darts to make up for the other inefficiencies in his game.

That said, Thomas is still elite and is priced at a point where I will always bet blindly. He is likely finding my card after this article gets published as an outright bet. I am not sure about top finisher positions because of his erratic play as of late.

Corey Conners +5500

Conners might need a break after another strong performance at the Canadian Open. That said, if a course has small greens that require precision, Conners is always a consideration at an elevated price.

One of the most elite ball-strikers in the game, Conners has avoided losing strokes around the green in four straight appearances. Normally one of his bugaboos, we are quite pleased when Corey doesn’t lose ground greenside. Unfortunately, the flat stick is not his forte, losing strokes in two straight events. That said, when he gained 4.8 strokes putting at the PGA Championship, Conners finished 12th, again showing a penchant for showing up at majors.

Conners broke through for his second win this season and is a threat to win any tournament if the short game stays in check. At 55-1, we are very likely to welcome Corey back to the team this week. With his emergence, he is often priced out of our range in smaller events. I cannot possibly live with myself if Conners wins the U.S. Open and I don’t have him. He is a very likely outright this week and a possible DFS play if ownership is appropriate.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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