USFL Championship Picks: Best Prop Bets For Stallions vs. Stars
Welcome to the inaugural USFL championship game. The 2022 season has brought a rollercoaster experience for fans, DFS players and prop bettors alike. Last-second finishes and unexpected breakout players made this a great experience that we’re excited is returning in 2023.
That’s the fun of playing at PrizePicks. PrizePicks offers props for each week of the USFL season, including the championship game between the Philadelphia Stars and Birmingham Stallions this weekend. We’re here to break everything down for you.
Because the USFL has seen such volatility in specific player performances, we’re going to use every bit of information and recent trends to get an advantage. We’ve identified the top handful of plays for you to consider this week.
PrizePicks Prop Plays: USFL Championship Game
Case Cookus: Over 200.5 Pass Yards
We weren’t able to hit the over on this play last week but that won’t discourage us from buying into Cookus’ ability to create big plays in the title game. Philadelphia has often relied on Cookus to carry their offense, leading to gigantic passing totals. He’s also had some bad games where backup K.J. Costello has needed to step in, such as the first round of the playoffs.
Last week’s stinker against New Jersey featured a 50% completion rate for just 133 yards. That will change this week. Birmingham has limited passers to only 173.3 yards per game this year but three of their games featured huge yard totals by Kyle Sloter. Cookus is better than Sloter in terms of raw talent but he lacks consistency with accuracy.
We didn’t get this far into the season to shy away from predicting big games. Cookus has been explosive more often than not. He’ll find a way to hit 201 passing yards in the USFL championship, just like he threw for 215 yards in their last matchup.
J’Mar Smith: Under 184.5 Pass Yards
While Cookus has the explosiveness factor, J’Mar Smith has not shared the same upside. His passing total is right along with the high-end of his season performance, and the Stars just barely allowed Luis Perez to reach 191 yards despite completing 19-of-25 attempts. It’s possible Smith finds a couple of big passing plays but Philadelphia actively works to prevent chunk plays and will live with a more efficient attack.
I expect Smith to take what Philadelphia gives him and that means a lower passing total. Birmingham has a bigger advantage on the ground and they routinely give their backs upwards of 20 or more touches each game. This includes Smith’s own ability to create big plays on the ground.
Smith was able to manage a whopping 203 yards last matchup between these teams. But he completed 17-of-22 attempts, which was unusually efficient for him. Philadelphia was also not the same team at that point of the season as they are now.
Bo Scarbrough: Over 50.5 Rush Yards
The running back dynamic in Birmingham is a tough one to crack. We only have one line available to us this week and it’s Bo Scarbrough. Scarbrough has at times been a true workhorse for this offense, but has also faded in carries lately as the Stallions opted for a more efficient passing attack.
The last time these teams played, it was C.J. Marable who dominated with 114 yards on 23 carries. But Marable has lost the starting job since and Scarbrough does lead the team in rushes most weeks. The x-factor is whether Smith will run and steal his opportunities.
Philadelphia’s weak run defense should curtail that concern. They have one of the least effective run defenses in the USFL and somehow survived New Jersey’s effective tandem of Darius Victor and Trey Williams. Scarbrough isn’t likely good enough to win this game for the Stallions but he can control the clock and handle 30 touches.
Victor Bolden Jr.: Under 40.5 Receiving Yards
We have two options from each team to choose from for receivers. These lines are difficult, so we’re going to tie them to their recent performances. Victor Bolden Jr. appears to be the easier play. Bolden was the forgotten man last week with only one catch on four targets.
Bolden has been solid all season but he is a slot specialist who is more convenient for the offense than a necessity. Marlon Williams may have underachieved last week as he finished with 24 yards, but he was targeted seven times. Bolden has fallen much farther on the depth chart and offers less upside.
Remember we’re fading Smith’s passing total this game, so we’re tying it together with this receiving total. If Smith goes over, it’s unlikely to be tied to Bolden’s performance because he was not a contributor last week.
Devin Gray: Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Again we only have two options for the Stars receiving totals but it’s a little shocking Devin Gray was a featured name. The third-leading receiver last week has a low line after he’s posted just 215 yards on 26 receptions all year. He’s tied for fourth in receiving yards behind Jordan Suell and Bug Howard and tied with Chris Rowland.
Gray managed just 29 weeks on four catches and nine targets last week. We love that he got that many targets. It’s easy to see a pathway for Gray to hit 40 or more yards even if Cookus doesn’t play better as we expect.
This is a safe over, relatively speaking. Gray gets the targets needed to go over and Cookus will likely play better and throw more than last week.
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