USFL Playoff Picks: Best Prop Bets, Expert Predictions For Sloter, Williams, & More
The USFL Playoffs have arrived after 10 riveting weeks of action. For sports bettors, this was a profitable season that had twists and turns but fairly predictable outcomes. For prop bettors and DFS players, this was a rollercoaster season filled with random breakout games.
That’s the fun of playing at PrizePicks. PrizePicks offers great prop bets for each week of the USFL season, including the first round of the playoffs this weekend. We’re here to break everything down for you.
Because the USFL has seen such volatility in terms of specific player performances, we’re going to use every bit of information and recent trends to get an advantage. We’ve identified the top handful of plays for you to consider this week.
PrizePicks Prop Plays: 2022 USFL Playoffs
Case Cookus: Over 200.5 Pass Yards
Our top play of the week is taking Case Cookus to eclipse the 200.5-yard mark. He’s the engine of the Philadelphia Stars offense and has produced extremely well since earning the starting job. He currently sits with the fourth-most yards and second-most passing touchdowns in the USFL despite not being a Day 1 starter.
Cookus runs hot and cold, and his matchup with New Jersey will be difficult. The Generals possess a good secondary but one that forces turnovers, not necessarily a crippling set of coverage defenders. Cookus will find the gaps in their defense and hit the over here.
Kyle Sloter: Under 210.5 Pass Yards
Is Kyle Sloter even a safe bet to finish this game? Sloter was named as a USFL all-star but has been cold as of late. The Breakers opted to sit him in the final week of the regular season. It’s a good thing his backups, Shea Patterson and Zach Smith, struggled in his place.
Sloter has been incredibly streaky. He was very good early in the year and still finished second in the USFL in yards despite not playing in one week and going several weeks with poor output. The concern for bettors is that Birmingham has an excellent defense and Sloter’s own issues with taking sacks and throwing interceptions could lead to a quiet day.
I know Sloter totaled 241 yards and 251 yards in his previous two games against Birmingham, but he didn’t play relatively well in either and the yards were more due to volume than quality play. I expect New Orleans to play more conservatively this week since Sloter’s interceptions doomed them in their last matchup.
Trey Williams: Over 55.5 Rush Yards
Guessing which backs will do well in the USFL can be difficult. Some games it seems like neither team should even waste their time. The New Jersey Generals have a dominant run attack but they’ll split their carries between whoever is hotter between Trey Williams and Darius Victor.
Williams was the star last week as he burst out with 114 yards on 14 carries. I expect that to earn him more early looks against the Philadelphia Stars. The Stars have a terrible run defense, allowing 151 yards per game. I would even say it’s fair to play the over on Victor’s 50.5 line as well as Trey Williams’.
Jordan Ellis: Over 45.5 Rush Yards
We’re selling Sloter’s yards, which means we’re buying Jordan Ellis’ production. Ellis led the USFL in rushing yards with 596 total thanks to taking on a huge number of carries throughout the year. He’s a bruiser and one that is a necessary part of this Breakers’ offense.
There’s no way for New Orleans to beat Birmingham without relying on Ellis heavily. He racked up 90 yards in their initial matchup and then 41 last game. But he would have hit the over in their 10-9 loss if he hadn’t lost 10 carries to his backup rusher due to being nicked up.
Ellis is back and ready for a big workload. I’d expect him to clear this low total https://rotogrinders.com/sports-betting/nfl-football-betting-tipsbut the end of the third quarter, if not halftime.
Jordan Suell: Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
The Philadelphia offense doesn’t consistently feed one playmaker. Last week we saw tight end Bug Howard breakout with a huge game, but almost a third of his yards came in one game this entire season. I won’t bet on him getting as much action this week, though his line is also attractive at PrizePicks.
Instead, it’s Jordan Suell who has my attention. He has a catch rate of 63.2, which is above average, and he’s been Cookus’ go-to guy in clutch moments. He’s a possession threat and that bodes well in these tight games where it’ll be comforting to take what’s familiar.
Suell had 31 yards but a score last week, and 47 yards in the previous week. As Howard gets fewer targets as his random breakout, expect Suell to benefit and hit the over.
KaVontae Turpin: Under 60.5 Receiving Yards
While it might seem strange to fade the USFL’s leading receiver, the tea leaves show a changing of the guard in New Jersey. Turpin was still productive last week, earning 68 yards on five catches, but he was third in targets and it wasn’t close. Both Alonzo Moore and Darrius Shepherd are higher on the totem pole now that the Generals are again favoring a two-quarterback system.
Turpin and his teammates benefitted from an abnormally efficient attack over the last two weeks. We simply can’t count on his quarterbacks completing 80% of their attempts in playoff battles. Any type of downturn and Turpin has no shot of hitting this over.
That should hold us over for another week while we wait for the 2022 NFL season to arrive!
Image Credit: Imagn