Vanek's Views: DraftKings NFL DFS Tips for Week 16 WRs

by Jordan Vanek (vanekjordan) Last Updated 2024-12-19 00:38:51 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming NFL DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best ways to attack the wide receiver position to help you climb the leaderboards.

This weekend’s slate features a smaller pool of games, with two premium matchups taking place in the Saturday slate, showcasing four top-tier teams. Interestingly, none of the games on this slate have a total exceeding 50 points, which creates an environment where the upside among games feels closely matched.

Early ownership projections suggest that many players are chasing last week’s standout performances, particularly from Davante Adams and Jalen Coker. While these players are in good spots, it’s easy to see why they succeeded last week and wont this week. Sometimes a massive game stems from a player simply getting hot, but often it’s the result of a specific coverage scheme that caters to their strengths. When the scheme changes the following week, it can lead to a sharp drop in production.

For example, Adams thrived against the Jaguars, who employed a heavy dose of man coverage, a scheme he’s consistently dominated. However, it’s unlikely the Rams will replicate that approach, which makes him a riskier option at high ownership. Identifying alternatives with similar upside but lower ownership can provide a significant edge in this slate, especially given the lack of obvious game environments to exploit. This is a great week to dig deeper into matchups and pivot from chalky plays that could underperform.

The slate has a lot more punt options at positions we would be paying up for that allows the ownership to go toward the upper $6,000 range and even into the $7,000 range. The tool that shows this is our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. This tool helps me see where ownership is and the players around it I can find myself pivoting to.

Let’s dive into my thoughts on the Week 16 slate.

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Vanek’s Views: DraftKings NFL DFS Tips for Week 16 WRs

Stacks

Michael Penix ($4,500, QB, Atlanta Falcons)

Drake London ($6,400, WR, Atlanta Falcons)

Darnell Mooney ($5,400, WR, Atlanta Falcons)

Kirk Cousins struggled significantly in the last month or so, and I’m excited to see what the offense can accomplish with Michael Penix. The Falcons will finally have opportunities to do things with Penix that they simply couldn’t with Cousins. While Penix isn’t an elite mobile quarterback, he’s comfortable rolling out, adding a dimension the Falcons have lacked this season. Coming out of college, I considered him one of the best pure throwers in his class. By that, I mean he’s adept at throwing to all three levels of the field, with the ability to throw with touch when necessary and place the ball where his receivers can make plays.

Downfield, Darnell Mooney is likely thrilled to play with Penix, as he’ll see more deep targets. Additionally, Drake London should benefit from more contested opportunities in tight coverage situations. I’m not opposed to pairing Bijan Robinson with Penix, but I think fully committing to Penix in a double stack unlocks his top-end upside. As for the Giants defense, they’ve been beaten in multiple ways this season and as a secondary have multiple weaknesses.

The only runback I’m currently considering is Malik Nabers. While Nabers is an incredible talent, I’m uncertain if the Giants’ quarterback play is capable of helping him surpass the 100-yard mark. The volume is there, but the ability to consistently execute big plays has been lacking.

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