Vikings vs. Eagles Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
Week 2 of the NFL kicks off with a matchup of some of the premiere fantasy scorers in football with Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Philadelphia to take on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The top players in this game are sure to draw some attention, which could lead to some interesting questions regarding lineup construction and ownership. I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game DFS entries.
The Eagles are currently favored by 6.5 points at home in this matchup that has a game total of 49.5 points, and the medium-high total reflects a Vikings defense that allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL last season and an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest passing yards per game. I expect the Eagles to control this game and pull out the win behind their superior defense and a well-rounded offense that routinely took the foot off the gas last year after getting out to big leads on opponents.
Vikings vs. Eagles Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
I see two elements for this single-game contest in particular that will be critical for our lineups – the questions surrounding the Philadelphia backfield, and how to handle the popularity of the top players like Jalen Hurts and Justin Jefferson.
With the first element, I plan to be overweight each of the Eagles running backs, with that ownership likely coming at the expense of the peripheral receivers, defenses, and kickers. The injury to Philly RB Kenneth Gainwell, who saw the majority of work in week 1, has left the remaining three RBs underpriced without a clear indication of how the backfield touches will break out. I’ll use this to my advantage, mixing and matching the RBs on my rosters and allowing it to leave me with salary to spare to reduce the duplication of my lineups. As we saw on MNF, it can be difficult to predict backfield timeshares even when we think we have reliable reports on how the carries will break down. D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny, and even Boston Scott each have the upside to outscore the kickers and defenses in this game, and I’d argue that each of them has a safer floor than the peripheral receivers like Quez Watkins and KJ Osborn in these concentrated passing offenses.
The next question is how do we deal with the expected high ownership of Jalen Hurts and Justin Jefferson. For smaller-field contests I think we have to eat the ownership here, particularly with Hurts as a home-favorite QB that significantly out-projects every other player in the game and can put up points through the air (against a poor passing defense) or on the ground. For Jefferson, I may aim to be slightly underweight even in smaller-field contests, and pairing him with lower-owned players or leaving salary on the table when I use him in my lineups. For larger field contests, as we saw on MNF, anything can happen and I’ll aim to be underweight both players, particularly on the CPT spot on DraftKings where they could get priced off the winning roster.
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
Speaking of lineup construction, while we’ll want to set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to unique lineups. Each week I’ll aim to hit on a “rule that can be broken” for our lineups.
This week, with their low prices and uncertainty in roles for the Eagles backfield, I’ll be willing to pair multiple Philadelphia RBs in the same lineup. Our best guess here is likely that D’Andre Swift will get passing game work and split carries with Rashaad Penny, while Boston Scott backs up both players and gets any blowout run in the 4th Quarter, but there is greater uncertainty than we normally see with Penny being a healthy inactive last week. While each of these players will stand out as a value play, I think we may not see as much ownership as we should as the value pricing often leaves hundreds or even thousands of salary cap dollars on the table when using these RBs in highly-projected lineups.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
On DraftKings – as difficult as this will be – I’ll be aiming to be below the field on Jalen Hurts and Justin Jefferson on my rosters in the Captain position. Hurts, in particular, is likely to draw outsized ownership, but there are always paths to failure for very expensive players, and Hurts and Jefferson are no exceptions. I’ll be using that ownership to focus more heavily on players like DeVonta Smith – who carries upside and is likely to be lower owned, Kirk Cousins – who could be passing the ball heavily if the Eagles get the lead as expected, and D’Andre Swift – who should be excellent value for his salary and lets you fit in more expensive pieces while still leaving some salary on the table.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
The scoring format on FanDuel will make it extremely difficult to get away from Jalen Hurts in the MVP spot, and it’s a risk I’m much less likely to take in the FanDuel Single-Game contests. Without a salary multiplier and with value at RB, Hurts would likely need to get straight outscored by another player to fall out of the MVP spot. I’ll look to get different elsewhere on FanDuel, possibly pairing Hurts with multiple RBs and no receiver, or going overweight on Vikings players with Hurts as the only Eagle in the MVP spot. Another option is using Kirk Cousins in the MVP spot, pairing him with Justin Jefferson, and leaving Hurts off the roster entirely and hoping for the unexpected.
Week 2 of the NFL season should start with a good one and this game could feature high-scoring from a number of players who are relevant for DFS, season-long, and best-ball.. Good luck to everyone tonight and enjoy!