Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings, Prediction, & Pick
Warriors vs. Kings Odds
| Warriors Odds | +1.5 |
| Kings Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 236 |
| Date | Tue, Nov. 28 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | TNT |
The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings will wrap-up Group Play in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament tonight on TNT at 10:00 p.m. ET. Entering play, De’Aaron Fox and the Kings lead Group C and can win the group with a victory. Stephen Curry and the Warriors can win Group C with a victory and a Timberwolves loss, or Golden State can win Group C with a victory by 13 points or more and a Minnesota win that is not by at least eight points more than Golden State’s win.
In short, this Tuesday affair has significant meaning for both teams, which should result in an entertaining contest! Ahead of tip-off, the Kings are favored by 1.5 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 236 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Golden State Warriors
Draymond Green returns for the Dubs
Draymond Green will play basketball tonight for the first time since his on-court altercation with Rudy Gobert on November 14. Golden State is 5-3 in games this season in which Green plays at least three minutes, but only 3-6 in their other nine contests.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors rank in the 60th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 16th percentile in defensive efficiency with Green on the court this year, compared to the 41st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 64th percentile in defensive efficiency when he is off of the floor. Golden State should see a slight uptick in offensive production on Tuesday, and Green’s chemistry with long-time teammates Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson should make the Splash Brothers benefactors of his presence.
Warriors defense struggling to defend without fouling
In Golden State’s first nine games of the season, prior to Green being suspended, the team ranked 27th in the NBA in opponent free throw attempts allowed per game. Combining the Warriors’ mediocrity on the glass with their inability to defend without fouling and their inability to force turnovers on a consistent basis, this group is extremely average defensively as presently constructed. Facing a dangerous Sacramento offense, Golden State could be in for a long night – or, at a minimum, a track meet.
Sacramento Kings
Impact of De’Aaron Fox
In 10 games with De’Aaron Fox in the lineup this season, the Kings are 7-3. According to Cleaning the Glass, Sacramento ranks in the 78th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 51st percentile in defensive efficiency when Fox is on the court this year compared to the 23rd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 42nd percentile in defensive efficiency when he is on the sidelines.
Since Fox returned from injury on November 13, the Kings are 5-2 and rank 10th in the NBA in Net Rating despite playing six of those games on the road. Coming home for an In-Season Tournament matchup against their rivals, Sacramento is positioned well for a strong performance on Tuesday.
Kings’ biggest vulnerability
If the Kings have one major vulnerability this evening, it is on the glass, where they rank 27th in rebound percentage across their last seven games. The Warriors are not particularly well equipped to exploit this aspect of the game, ranking only 14th in rebound percentage themselves during that period, but they could give Kevon Looney extended run tonight if offensive rebounding becomes a heightened priority.
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction
Kings ML (-125), Caesars
The Golden State Warriors get significant respect on the market due to the presence of Stephen Curry, and the return of Draymond Green this evening only further increases that phenomenon. The reality, however, is that the Dubs are a mediocre basketball team that does not do anything particularly well, especially with Klay Thompson looking like a player past his prime.
The Sacramento Kings have been playing exceptionally well on the road and have been even better at home this season, where they are 4-1. If betting Golden State in this matchup, it makes sense to bet their alt-lines to at least -13. If betting Sacramento, a moneyline bet will suffice for motivational purposes. The Kings are the better team in this matchup and should be able to get the job done regardless of how well Curry plays.