Warriors vs. Suns Odds, Preview, and Christmas Day Pick
Warriors vs. Suns Odds
| Warriors Odds | +5.5 |
| Suns Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 215.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Dec. 25 |
| Time | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
NBA fans have an entire day of exciting action to watch on Christmas, but perhaps the most exciting matchup on the docket features the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns in a potential Western Conference Finals preview. If there is anything detracting from the excitement surrounding this contest, it is the fact that, similar to the rest of the league, this game has been significantly impacted by COVID-19. The Warriors have ruled out Damion Lee, Moses Moody, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins due to health and safety protocols. The Suns enter play as one of the healthiest teams in basketball after returning Devin Booker to the floor earlier this week. Oddsmakers are anticipating good health and home court advantage to be decisive factors in this one, pricing the Suns as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread at online sportsbooks.
Now, let’s take a closer look at how the Warriors and Suns match up before making another Christmas Day pick.
Warriors
Per Cleaning the Glass, when Stephen Curry is on the floor without Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee, and Moses Moody this season, Golden State ranks in the 92nd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 98th percentile in defensive efficiency. In essence, the absence of some key players is not a death sentence for this group. Still, it would be naive to make the argument that these are not substantial losses for a Golden State team playing one of the best teams in the league on the road in this one.
In today’s matchup, the Warriors have only one player, Curry, who is averaging more than 8.4 points per game. When these two teams met in Phoenix on November 30, Curry totaled only 12 points on 4-for-21 shooting from the floor in a losing effort. He rebounded for a better game on December 3 against the Suns, but his life was certainly made easier by a combined 69 points from Wiggins, Poole, Toscano-Anderson, and Payton II. Bettors should not expect role players such as Toscano-Anderson and Payton to play so well away from home. The absence of offensive support could be problematic for the Dubs today, especially if Curry struggles with his shot.
Suns
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Suns rank in the 73rd percentile in offensive efficiency and the 90th percentile in defensive efficiency this season when Frank Kaminsky and Abdel Nader are not on the floor. Phoenix’s most common starting five, featuring Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder, and Mikal Bridges has been nearly unstoppable this season, ranking in the 80th percentile in Net Rating and the 89th percentile in defensive efficiency.
The Suns have won 20 consecutive games with Booker in the lineup, with their last loss coming by three points to the Sacramento Kings on October 27–nearly two months ago. In three games since returning to the floor, the Suns lead the NBA with a +19.6 Net Rating, ranking 7th in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency. Golden State presents a tougher challenge than their most recent opponents–the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Oklahoma City Thunder–but this is still a game that the Suns should win.
Pick and Prediction
For those with access to live betting, the under will likely have value at some point during the first quarter. Similar to the first time these two teams met in Phoenix, a high-scoring first quarter could inflate the live line. The Suns starting five ranks in only the 52nd percentile in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions. Expect a lower-scoring affair in this one, but for it to be a sweat if taking the pre-game market price.
If looking for a player prop to consider on PrizePicks, Stephen Curry under 30.5 points could have value. Curry has struggled throughout his career against longer wing players, such as Bridges. Having little offensive support around him today, it is doubtful that the Suns allow Curry to try and win this game by himself.
PICK: Under 215.5 (-110)
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