Week 1 NFL Prop Bets: Five Predictions for Sunday
On Sunday, NFL fans have their first main slate of the 2023 regular season on tap! Fourteen games means more player prop options than bettors can count. Ahead of kickoff, we have identified five player props worth considering for your Week 1 card.
Below, we take a look at how Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, Michael Thomas, and Dameon Pierce could fare on Sunday afternoon.
Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Trevor Lawrence Over 10.5 Rushing Yards @ -120, BetMGM
In two games against the Indianapolis Colts last season, Trevor Lawrence eclipsed this market number twice. In Week 2, he had three attempts for 11 rushing yards. In Week 6, Lawrence had six attempts for 23 rushing yards. Overall, Lawrence eclipsed this market number 10 times last year, including the postseason. The Colts are once again thin at the linebacker position, which should afford Lawrence a few opportunities to make a play with his legs on Sunday.
Russell Wilson Over 18.5 Rushing Yards @ -120, BetMGM
Russell Wilson eclipsed this market number six times in 2022, according to props.cash. In his final five games last fall, Wilson never had fewer than 17 rushing yards in a single contest. On Sunday, he will face a Las Vegas Raiders linebacker corps that is completely devoid of talent. Luke Masterson, Divine Deablo, and Robert Spillane each finished last year ranked 56th or worse out of 81 qualified players at their position, per PFF. Wilson should be able to make a play or two with his legs in this matchup to hit the over on his rushing yards.
Bryce Young Over 13.5 Rushing Yards @ -115, BetMGM
DJ Chark has already been ruled out for this contest, meaning that Bryce Young will be without one of his top options in the passing game. The Atlanta Falcons have a mediocre linebacker unit, with Kaden Elliss being borderline elite but Troy Andersen being borderline unplayable. Young should be forced to escape the pocket and make something happen with his legs at some point in this contest. This is a relatively low market number, considering the circumstances.
Michael Thomas o3.5 Receptions @ -135, DraftKings
It is difficult to figure out why this market number is set to over/under 3.5 ahead of Sunday’s action. Michael Thomas had at least five catches in each of his three games played last fall. In 2020, Thomas eclipsed this market number in five of seven games played, despite fighting through injuries. Thomas should see a lot of Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary in this matchup, neither of whom is particularly talented. The Titans finished 2022 ranked 20th in DVOA against #1 wide receivers and 23rd in DVOA against the slot. Assuming Thomas makes it through this contest healthy, he should be able to secure four catches.
Dameon Pierce o54.5 Rushing Yards @ -115, BetMGM
The market is expecting a negative game script to limit the opportunities for Dameon Pierce on the ground in Week 1, but this market number appears far too low for a player who routinely had 15 attempts or more on the ground in 2022. Further, the Baltimore Ravens are likely to be worse against the run than many people realize. Odafe Oweh and Justin Madubuike are mediocre at best as run defenders. The linebacker duo of Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen make up for some of the defensive line concerns against the run, but Pierce should still be able to find a way to get close to 60 rushing yards in this matchup. The over is worth a small investment.