The Future is Now - Week 11 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
We followed up our biggest win with the worst call of the season. Green Bay upset Dallas, moving their record to 4-6 and their win total up to 7.5 on FanDuel. Brutal … but I’ll be hitting the under 7.5 too.
Did get some clarity on the MVP race with Patrick Mahomes separating himself. Might be time to buy low on Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen.
Bet This in Week 11: Buffalo to Win the AFC East (-180 on FanDuel)
Fascinating spot for our portfolio. We backed Buffalo to win the division at -240 in Week 4 after they lost to Miami and the number predictably jumped up to -370 the following week.
We backed Miami to make the playoffs after Week 7, getting them at -175. It’s now up to -800.
Now we have a decision to make. Bet the Buffalo side again now that it’s back to a playable number, or double down on Miami and hit them at +250 to win the division themselves.
I lean Buffalo because of what we discussed back in Week 7. Miami had a glorious stretch of cupcake games and cruised to four-straight wins. That stretch ends after Week 12 (Houston). Four of Miami’s final six games are on the road against the likes of San Francisco, LA, Buffalo and New England.
Buffalo closes with a much easier schedule, starting with Cleveland this week. A win likely moves this number back over -200. Let’s push a few more chips in.
Don’t Bet This in Week 11: Minnesota to be the NFC #1 Seed (+240 on FanDuel)
We can’t overreact to Minnesota winning the game of the year. The result was so wacky it barely matters. What does matter is the Vikings competing against a top-flight team for the first time this season.
Philadelphia held a commanding lead on the No. 1 seed heading into Week 10 at -300 on FanDuel, with Minnesota in second at +410. The gap is now -160 vs. +240.
If the Vikings can knock off the Cowboys at home this week, they’re in a great spot to challenge for the No. 1 seed. Worth backing assuming we’re still getting it at plus money.