Week 4 NFL DFS Low-Owned Tournament Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
We’re gonna take a look at early ownership data to find plays to add leverage to our lineups. We’ll simply look through various projection models to see who’s projected highly or maybe even pick on something that projections might be missing at low projected ownership.
“Low” is can be under 5%. It can be under 10%. It can be low on rankings of ownership tiers. Context will be added if necessary.
For detailed projections and projected ownership, refer to our NFL Lineup HQ.
QUARTERBACKS
Kyler Murray at Rams
With Josh Allen sucking up the air and Dak Prescott underpriced (especially on DK), Kyler Murray is straight-up getting lost. Sure, the Rams are rightfully favored in this one, but as a 4.5-point dog in a 54-point total on an offense with no rushing attack, we have to love Murray to be the path to over 24 points that includes three TDs. He isn’t running much because he hasn’t had to. The Rams defense should make him go.
Murray has averaged 38 dropbacks to the 23 combined carries by Chase Edmonds and James Conner in their three wins. Folks, the Cardinals ain’t runnin’ 23 with the Edmonds-Conner in a negative gamescript. We should definitely see 40-plus dropbacks, maybe 45, and THE BLITZ projects Murray for 8.1 rushes. This game goes over and we’ll look like fools not getting overweight on Murray.
Patrick Mahomes at Eagles (DK)
Patrick Mahomes hasn’t had four TD passes, yet, but he’s had three in each of the three games played. Then, there’s death, taxes, and the Chiefs implied to score at least 30. History loves Mahomes, Vegas loves Mahomes, the Chiefs love to sling it with Mahomes, why isn’t the field loving Mahomes?
Again, we go back to the Prescott Effect this week. With Prescott only $6,700 this week, ownership funnels down to him from the top QBs because of the value presented in the situation. That value is reason to play Prescott over Mahomes. But ownership is a cost, too. Spending 11% ownership on Prescott instead of 6-7% on Mahomes is spending leverage on the bet that Prescott lineups are worth that much more EV than our best Mahomes lineups.
Play Dak. Play Kyler. Play Mahomes. Dak gives us value, while Kyler gives us a bunch of leverage, and Mahomes is almost always the best shot for the DK bonus and he’s rarely this low-owned.
RUNNING BACKS
Aaron Jones vs. Steelers
Aaron Jones should get a 40-plus% market share in a game where his team is implied to score over 26 points and win by a full TD. But he’s projected at under 5% ownership.
Odd, after Jones has had 23 and 21 opportunities each of the last two weeks is getting targeted 11.6% of the time — ten targets on 40 routes. And we’ve seen these Packers just feed him over and over in the red zone for a couple of years.
This is a great spot for us to exploit a bellcow in an extremely positive gamescript at home.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Terry McLaurin at Falcons
The Falcons are one of the worst defenses in the league and they play in a dome. Just about any WR1 should be somewhere in our player pool, traveling to Atlanta. When that WR1 is an elite talent like Terry McLaurin and no one wants to play him, it’s time for a post-it note or a highlighter or something like that.
Vegas has Washington in a pick-em in a moderate 47.5-total. 24.5 implied points isn’t super sexy for Washington, but Washington’s entire offense comes down to Antonio Gibson and McLaurin.
McLaurin leads the team with a 27.0% target share with no one else above 16%. If you’re worried about the QB, McLaurin had a 1.11 RACR in Week 3 after a 0.98 in Week 2. Sure, his aDOT is gonna be under 10.00 with Taylor Heinicke at the helm, but there’s a ceiling if 13-to-15 targets for which he have to pay very little. And are finding at microscopic ownership.