Week 7 College Football Picks: Texas vs. Oklahoma

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We’re already halfway through the college football season and things are starting to pick up as teams try vie for a spot in their respective conference championships. Week 7 will have plenty of fireworks as several teams with aspirations to make the College Football Playoff face off on Saturday.

Two of those teams are the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 11 Texas Longhorns, meeting for the 115th edition of the Red River Rivalry. The game will take place at none other than the historic Cotton Bowl, less than two hours south of the Texas-Oklahoma border. Both teams travel to Dallas undefeated in Big 12 Conference play. Like last year, we’re likely to see both teams meet up again for the Big 12 Championship regardless of who wins Sunday. What’s really at stake, in addition to the golden hat, is a College Football Playoff bid.

Texas already lost to LSU at home and will only make the playoffs if they sweep Big 12 teams. A loss wouldn’t end the Sooners’ hopes of a third consecutive playoff appearance but it would severely hurt them. Nine teams ranked inside the top 10 remain undefeated, and though Oklahoma was able to make the College Football Playoff despite losing this same game a year ago, a loss may be too difficult to overcome in 2019-20.

With that said, let’s break down college football picks for Oklahoma vs. Texas.

Week 7 College Football Picks — Oklahoma vs. Texas

Opening Spread: Texas +10 William Hill

Opening Total: 77.5

Current Spread: Texas +11, O/U 75.5 at William Hill

63% of bets on Oklahoma, per VegasInsider.com (updated on Friday)

Current Total: 75.5

82% of bets on Over

The Longhorns have covered 7 of their last 8 meetings with the Sooners. After covering the 7-point spread in a 48-45 upset during the 2018 regular season, the Longhorns failed to sweep Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where Oklahoma was favored by 9.5 points.

The most interesting thing about this week’s spread is how much higher it is when compared to “Game of the Year” spreads that online sportsbooks posted in the Summer. FanDuel Sportsbook favored Oklahoma by only 3 points in May while the Golden Nugget made the Sooners 6.5 points favorites. Four months later and the Texas Longhorns are now double-digit underdogs in a game that has stayed within a touchdown margin in each of the last five regular season meetings. Hopefully you snagged Oklahoma -3 months ago as we suggested in our Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners season preview

The Longhorns have met expectations in the first half of the season and their 45-38 loss to LSU (no ranked No. 5) is nothing to be ashamed of. The difference isn’t because of anything Texas has or hasn’t done; it’s all about Oklahoma and Jalen Hurts.

Another Heisman in Oklahoma?

Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley is on the verge of producing his third Heisman in as many years as he’s been a head coach. Jalen Hurts +430 is currently no. 2 in Heisman Trophy odds at FanDuel Sportsbook thanks to passing for over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns in addition to 499 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground. Hurts’ biggest competition? Former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa (+140). Tagovailoa leads Hurts in passings yards and passing touchdowns but Hurts has the edge when you take into account what the dual-threat QB has done with his legs.

What’s most impressive is Hurts’ passing efficiency downfield. As ESPN’s Bill Connelly points out, Hurts is 23-for-26 (89%) for 647 yards and 5 touchdowns in passes thrown between 10 and yards

Note: Hurts is behind Tagovailoa and LSU quarterback Joe Burrow at other online sports betting sites such as PointsBet and Draftkings.

If you think OU will get their third Heisman in a row you can find Hurts +450 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds).

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Week 7 College Football Picks — Oklahoma vs. Texas

It’s no secret that Tom Herman’s teams have been exceptional as underdogs. Texas is 8-3-1 ATS as an underdog since Herman’s arrival, and Herman is 13-3-1 with 10 outright wins as an underdog for his career. Texas ranks fourth offensively in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, but there is plenty reason for trepidation. Texas’ defense is extremely vulnerable, as Burrow and LSU proved in Austin a few weeks ago. Most recently, Texas gave up 30 points to Oklahoma State and 31 points to West Virginia. Unsurprisingly, the lackluster performances place the Longhorns defense 66th in the nation, per SP+. Texas is still waiting for the return of freshman Jordan Whittington at running back to provide support for starter Keaontay Ingram.

Despite the concerns, I think Herman’s David-like powers continue this week. I’ll be taking the 11 points in this rivalry game, but I’ll be happy to try to middle the game and buy shares of Oklahoma if it falls to OU -9.5 between now and kickoff. Additionally, I don’t expect either team to slow each other down, so I’ll have the Over.

College Football Week 7 Picks: Texas +11; Over 75 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

For more general betting tips, check out our college football picks betting guide.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is the sports betting editor for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball, football and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.

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