The Future is Now - Week 7 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
The Giants are for real. They spoiled last week’s plan to wait to bet them to make the playoffs by beating the Ravens and boosting their odds to the -190 range. Hats off to Brian Daboll and company.
Patrick Mahomes didn’t show out like we had hoped against Buffalo. Josh Allen put more distance between himself and the rest of the MVP candidates.
Bet This in Week 6: San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West (+120 on DraftKings)
Not making the same mistake again by waiting a week. The Rams and 49ers both sitting at +120 to win the division on DraftKings is disrespectful.
Sportsbooks refuse to give up on Los Angeles despite mounting evidence this team is far inferior to last year’s championship squad. The Rams were -5.5 against the Cowboys in Week 5. What were the Eagles in the same spot against Dallas in Week 6? -6.5. That doesn’t add up.
It’s an oversimplification of oddsmaking, but there’s more than one point separating those two teams.
Speaking of teams that aren’t on the same level, the 49ers dominated the Rams in Week 4. Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times and threw a pick-6 to seal the game.
San Francisco has a pair of fluky losses against Chicago in a monsoon and against Atlanta on the second leg of a long East Coast trip. Injuries have also started to add up, a common theme for the team. But they’ve shown way more than LA at this point.
A win at home against Kansas City drops these odds, but even a loss followed by another dominant win over the Rams in Week 8 puts this one away.
Don’t Bet This in Week 6: Miami Dolphins to Make the Playoffs (-144 on PointsBet)
Pretty straightforward here. Miami is 3-0 in games Tua Tagovailoa has finished. They’re 0-3 in games he’s missed or left early. It sounds like Tua will return Sunday night against Pittsburgh.
The reason to wait another week is two-fold. If Tua doesn’t come back this week, Miami could easily lose to a feisty Steelers team. And even if they win, their playoff odds shouldn’t shift too much given the Week 7 outlooks for the other AFC contenders.
Ravens/Bengals/Chargers/Patriots all favored by 6+. Titans and Colts play each other, so one of them will get a win. Jets have a winnable game against a pitiful Broncos squad. Hard to see too much playoff odds movement this week unless we get some major upsets so might as well make sure Tua is healthy and back under center.
Hammer the Dolphins after this week. Their upcoming schedule is glorious: at Detroit, at Chicago, vs. Cleveland, BYE, vs. Houston. Gets tough after that, but they should be in great position to earn a playoff spot.
Bets we’re tracking
- Titans to Miss the Playoffs (bet after Week 8)
- Dolphins to Make the Playoffs (bet after Week 7)