Week 9 THU NFL Grind Down

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-31 00:26:28

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Quick Grind

Lots to love about this game: high Vegas total, tight spread, lots of offensive playmakers, and two struggling defenses_
The Saints offense got their groove back (but now they’re on the road)_

Cam and Kelvin will have to go ballistic for the Panthers to have a chance

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

Brees has been picking up steam the past two weeks and seems to have. The arc of Brees’ return to dominance comes as the Panthers once-proud defense has completely collapsed this season. Prior to holding the low-volume passing Russell Wilson to 234 yards and 1 TD last week, the Panthers defense had allowed at least 300 yards or 3 TDs to the last 4 passers – including 330+ yard, 3 TD games to perpetual bores Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton. The Panthers have been a goldmine for us as a target in DFS, allowing the 8th-most FPPG to QBs, and grading out s the 5th-wrst coverage unit in the NFL. Brees should be able to eviscerate this pass defense, but, for reasons that defy logic, we always have to be careful using Brees and co when he’s on the road. I simply don’t trust the Panthers defensive personnel to either generate a consistent rush, or be able to contain the Saints weapons… so I’m treating Brees like a top-5 QB option this week. But using caution given his road struggles is completely understandable.

TE Jim Graham

Last week I suggested that although Graham would take a step forward, there was little reason to roster him over a healthy Gronk – hopefully Grinders headed that advice, but if you didn’t, you still got a strong 5-59-1 line out of Graham. The countdown is now on for Graham to have HIS monster game. The Panthers do have strong TE coverage thanks to LBs Luke Keuecuchly and Thomas Davis, and allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to the position. But the same Panthers have also been absolutely bulldozed by Graham, allowing 11 catches for 131 yards and 3 TDs to him last season. And that was when their defense was good. Big Jim is locked into the hyper-elite TE top-3 as long as he’s healthy.

Saints WRs

Last week we saw the opposite of Week 7 from the Saints receivers, with Marques Colston (4-49) and Kenny Stills (4-57) having modest days and Brandin Cooks exploding (7 touches, 98 yards, 2 TDs). As usual, with all the WRs and Jimmy Graham healthy, it will be hard to pinpoint who to target on a weekly basis. All of the Saints WRs are in play this week against a Panthers secondary that is basically horrid in coverage at every position. Colston is intriguing out of the slot, as the Panthers flat-out cut their slot cover man after Week 7, and their other slot CB is banged up. Stills could absolutely torch CB Antoine Cason, who I’m fond of mentioning every single week as a top CB to target in DFS. And finally, we have Brandin Cooks. The Saints had been moving away from their typical high-floor usage of Cooks in the last few weeks, as they weren’t getting much out of him. And then, when both Graham and Stills were healthy enough to operate in their usual roles, Cooks was the featured playmaker, both short and deep. I love Cooks as both a player and DFS target going forward, as these 6 catch, 2 TD performances are well within the realm of possibility. The problem is that there will be weeks where Cooks does very little. He’s a high-variance option this week that appears to be back to his high-floor ways if the Saints continue to use him in the short passing game.

And Then There Were Two: the Saints RBs

I was a little worried last week after I called Mark Ingram an ‘elite’ play and rostered him a nauseating amount, but he came through and then some by going ballistic for 175 yards and a TD on a whopping 25 touches. When #AngryIngram gets rolling, and has the traditional carries to himself, he’s an excellent option in this offense. This week the Ingram Show travels to Carolina to face the declawed Panthers run defense, which has allowed 116.8 rushing yards per game and the 2nd-most FPPG to RBs. The Panthers grade as the 9th-worst run-defense unit, but to their credit they do have a few stand-outs against the run, and have held both Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch under 75 yards the past 2 weeks. I think if there’s one thing the Panthers can correct on defense it’s their run stuffing, but as long as Mark Ingram is getting full volume and remains priced below the top-tier RBs, he’s a strong RB play.

The passing game complement to Ingram is RB Travaris Cadet, who fills the Pierre Thomas role while Thomas remains sidelined with injury. Cadet is definitely capable in this role, and is also occasionally used in the slot as Darren Sproles was. He managed 47 yards on 5 touches last week, numbers suppressed by the Saints stomp last week. Cadet will see more volume in less favorable game scripts, and is a sneaky full-PPR punt RB.

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton

I warned against playing Cam last week due to worries with the Panthers offensive line, and the Seahawks absolutely feasted. That, coupled with the Saints defensive success vs a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week, should have most off Cam this week. But let’s take a look at the positives. The first is that Cam and WR Kelvin Benjamin are reaching impressive levels of chemistry – though the big-bodied WR continues to drop passes and TDs, which suppresses both he and his QBs true performance each week. The second positive is the re-emergence of Cam as a rushing threat. Check out his rushing attempts the last 3 weeks: 12, 7, 17. He won’t always rack up 17 carries like he did Week 6, but he ALSO won’t get completely shut down for 2 YPC like he did last week either. The offensive line remains a worry, especially in pass pro, but I’m not sure how the Saints will account for Cam as a rusher. Treat Newton as we have been most of the season, as a QB who has GPP-winning potential, but carries some risk due to the O-line.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Lost in the shuffle of the Panthers’ struggles last week was Kelvin Benjamin racking up 94 yards in the shadow coverage of Richard Sherman – anybody want to join the ‘Kelvin Benjamin is matchup-proof’ Fan Club that I started? Benjamin also continued to raise my blood pressure by missing ANOTHER TD, for what feels like the 47th time this season. I keep preaching about Benjamin and will continue to do so this week. His immense size makes him a constant chain-moving and red-zone threat, and as basically the only relevant Panthers WR, he ensures a consistent and massive share of the weekly targets. This week Benjamin faces a Saints defense that allows the 3rd-most FPPG to WRs. There are two red flags here though. The first is the likely shadow coverage of CB Keenan Lewis, who manned up Jordy Nelson last week, but has also been roasted repeatedly this season. The second is the approach the Saints used vs the Cowboys last year and a bit this year, which was to DOUBLE press-man cover #1 WR Dez Bryant. Bryant did manage to catch a TD in that game on one of the only plays they left him in single coverage, but beyond that was completely shut out by the Saints absurd scheme. Could a similar approach be in store for Kelvin this week? As literally the only receiving threat other than TE Greg Olsen, I worry what DC Rob Ryan has planned. That risk aside, Kelvin will be force-fed the ball, and he will have to be massive in this game for the Panthers to have a chance. He is an ideal #2 WR with a very high ceiling and risk that might turn out to be me overthinking things.

TE Greg Olsen

Ok, so the Greg Olsen Chart ‘O’ Consistency lives on this week, solely as a reminder of what he’s capable of. Last week, Olsen struggled with rare TE double-coverage vs the Seahawks, and only managed one catch for 16 yards. I seriously doubt the Saints adopt this strategy. And they might not even need to, as they’ve only allowed the 2nd-fewest FPPG to TEs this season. This ranking is a little inflated by games against Atlanta, Cleveland without Jordan Cameron, Tampa Bay, and Detroit – not exactly teams that feature or have fearsome TEs. The truth is probably that the Saints are solid vs the TE, but teams opt to attack their weaknesses at CB instead. So don’t fear Olsen from a matchup perspective. He’s a top-5 weekly option on full-PPR sites.

Other Panthers

With DeAngelo Williams healthy and allegedly starting, the Panthers backfield is again muddy. Williams offers salary relief but expecting much else is risky.