2023 Wells Fargo Championship: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:57:49

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

We arrive at another elevated event on the PGA Tour schedule with the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. Shifting back to Quail Hollow, the event will actually host a slightly less stacked field, as some players are opting to skip the event a couple of weeks ahead of the PGA Championship. That said, most of golf’s best will be teeing it up this week for a massive pile of cash. Who will finish on top? Let’s start with betting odds before we break down the course and statistics for this week.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 2nd – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Wells Fargo Championship:

• 2022 – Max Homa (-8) (TPC Potomac)
• 2021 – Rory McIlroy (-10)
• 2019 – Max Homa (-15)
• 2018 – Jason Day (-12)
• 2017 – Brian Harman (-10) (Eagle Point Golf Club)
• 2016 – James Hahn (-9)
• 2015 – Rory McIlroy (-21)

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will not play this week. Rahm opted to defend his title at the Mexico Open, while Scheffler will presumably play at the Byron Nelson in Texas next weekend ahead of the PGA Championship. Players are allowed to skip one elevated event without penalty. Rory McIlroy, the favorite in this week’s field, was penalized $3 million in PIP money for skipping two events. Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, and Justin Rose will skip the event, while both Aaron Wise and Hideki Matsuyama will miss the event due to injury.

McIlroy, despite his recent woes and missed events, is unquestionably the favorite in this field. With a remarkable amount of success at Quail Hollow, including two victories, Rory will look to make a statement after a poor Masters performance.

Max Homa possesses plenty of positive experience at the Wells Fargo Championship, with a win at a different course last year to complement his win at Quail Hollow in 2019. Will Max defend his title? The field is loaded. Will someone at the bottom of the odds board make a run? Let’s preview Quail Hollow.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Quail Hollow
• Date: May 4 – 7
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,538
• Greens: Bermuda overseeded with Poa

After hosting the President’s Cup in 2022, Quail Hollow will again host the Wells Fargo Championship. A challenging test for players, Quail Hollow is lined with trees, possesses numerous water hazards, and has a bevy of well-placed bunkers that will test the precision of a player’s approach game.

The most noteworthy hole on the course is the Par 3 17th, which is guarded by a large pond and bunkers on both sides. On Sunday, #17 could be the difference-maker down the stretch. The average distance for all of the Par 3’s is 196 yards, and they played over par a season ago.

Eight of the Par 4’s are north of 450 yards. Four of the most difficult holes on the course fall in this category. On the contrary, #14 is very short at 344 yards, with an eagle rate at 1.1% and a birdie rate at 45%. Depending on tee position, this hole could be drivable for players.

The Par 5’s will be the moneymakers for players. #7 can be reached in two shots and has a 3% eagle rate. #15 has a whopping 45% birdie rate. Players that make par, or worse, on that hole will walk off the green muttering under their breath.

While SG: Approach is the paramount driver of success at most events, the disparity between approach and OTT play is not that wide at this course. Golfers will need to be precise off the tee to avoid thick rough and bunkers in hopes of staying on the very narrow fairways. Distance is very helpful at this course but isn’t the only marker of success. Abraham Ancer gained plenty of strokes off the tee when Rory won in 2020 despite not being the longest player on Tour.

Long iron play will be pretty important here, especially for players who cannot bomb it off the tee. Proximity from 200+ yards is one of the most important ranges on this course over the years.

For us, we will focus on SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, P4: 450-500 yards, and Par 5 scoring as our main categories for modeling. Let’s take a look at a few golfers to consider for outright bets, matchups, and one-and-done this week.

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Rory McIlroy +750

If you have him in one-and-done, use him! Chances are many people in the field have used Rory already, but he won’t be sneaky this week. He will likely be the highest owned player given his course history and because Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will be absent from the field.

As an outright bet, Rory will cost a pretty penny. That said, we have watched short-odds golfers win these events every week after the schedule shift. Long-shots are not proving profitable at all this season, as the top of the board is eating these courses alive. The way Rory drives the golf ball is a major weapon at Quail Hollow, as he will see plenty of wedges and 9-irons out of the short grass while others are playing long irons. Given no Rahm or Scottie, I find it difficult to make a case for anyone besides Rory for OAD. That means we might need to pick someone else if we are far behind.

Max Homa +2500

Max Homa wins the Wells Fargo regardless of location. He booked a win at Quail Hollow in 2019 coming off of absolutely no form. He putt the lights out that week (+9.9 strokes gained) and shot a 63 on Friday, which was the difference between him and runner-up (and everyone’s favorite golfer), Joel Dahmen.

While this field is a lot stronger compared to his victory, Homa is a different golfer. Solid across the board in our important categories, Homa jumps off the page with regard to short game. At a course that is unlikely to become a birdie-fest, Homa’s ability to get up-and-down will likely put him in position on the weekend. With his experience at this course, he will be a big threat if he is anywhere close to the lead on Sunday. He makes for a decent pivot off of Rory McIlroy this week in OAD if you are playing catch-up.

Rickie Fowler +3300

Don’t look now, but Rickie Fowler might be back? Fowler now has eight T20 finishes this season, with his only missed cut being at the Shriners in October.

Fowler has plenty of history at Quail Hollow, with three top fives over his career, including his win in 2012. While that was a different Rickie and the strength of the field was far weaker, Fowler seems to be trending upward right in time for major season. A T20 bet feels pretty strong at this price, with an outright to boot. A one-and-done play on Fowler seems a bit unnecessary, but I suppose if you are that far back (I am), you would be on an island if he took down the top prize.

Over his last 50 rounds, Fowler ranks 9th in total strokes gained. Can Rickie jump back into the winner’s circle?

Keith Mitchell +6600

I find it difficult to bet an outright this far down the board this week with the class at the top of the betting board. That said, Keith Mitchell has a pair of back-to-back T10 finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship when played at Quail Hollow. With Mitchell’s ability off the tee, we should not be shocked that he has shown good form at this course.

While the short game fails Mitchell often, he putt very well at Quail Hollow during his two T10 finishes. If we are looking for a nicely priced T10 or T20 finish, we can do worse than Keith. As a OAD, he might be a bit unnecessary, but I will be combing sports betting sites for his matchups to see what type of price I can get for him against a comparable golfer.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images