2020 Workday Charity Open PGA Golf Betting Picks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-07-08 15:53:02

Another golf tournament, another heartbreaking Sunday. Last week our 125-1 longshot bet on Matthew Wolff came up short, but we hope to get back on track with a group of golf betting picks for the Workday Charity Open.

Though we have to wait one more week to see Tiger, and DeChambeau is taking a break of his own, a strong lineup makes its way to Ohio for the first of a two-part meal at Muirfield Village. Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, and Hideki Matsuyama headline the event and are atop golf odds at online sports betting sites.

It will be a unique two weeks, with the Workday Charity Open replacing the John Deere Classic as Muirfield Village hosts back-to-back tournaments. Many golfers will use the innaugural Workday Charity Open as a practice round to polish up before the Memorial Tournament, which is hosted by Jack Nicklaus and features a $9.3M purs. With shortened rough and slower greens, Muirfield Village will play easier this week. Let’s take a look at the golf betting odds and make our picks for the Workday Charity Open.

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Workday Charity Open Golf Betting Favorites

It is Justin Thomas +1000 who is ahead of everyone despite missing the cut two weeks ago at the Travelers Championship, where he lost over five strokes on the greens and nearly three with his approach shots. Thomas has had success at Muirfield Village, including two top-10s in six attempts. On the other hand, Thomas has missed the cut three times. Before that, Thomas recorded an 8th at the RBC Heritage and a 10th at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Thomas is one of the best iron player in the game, and Muirfield’s small greens will be comforting after his abysmal putting performance, but 10-1 is too short for my liking.

Patrick Cantlay won his second and most recent Tour victory at Muirfield last year. 27 at the time, Cantlay shot 19-under and bested runner-up Adam Scott by two strokes. Cantlay only has two wins, but he’s one of the most talented golfers on Tour, as evidenced by his stats. For the 2020 season, he’s 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th in ball-striking, and 10th in strokes gained approach (relative to the field). Cantlay’s numbers are even better long term. Cantlay has struggled with his putter and short game throughout his career, at least far more than he does elsewhere, but he obviously fancies this Nicklaus designed ball-striking test. Before winning outright in 2019, Cantlay had a 4th in 2018 and a modest 35th in 2017. The fact that at +1500 (via FanDuel) he’s only behind Thomas and in front of golfers who have had more success (at least in terms of win) is not surprising.

Hideki Matsuyama +1600 has steadily moved up odds sheets. He was previously +3000 at the RBC Heritage, his first tournament back, then +1800 in a much weaker field last week. Matsuyama’s game looked on point in Detroit, gaining more than seven strokes tee-to-green and five strokes from his approach shots. Matsuyama lost strokes with his putter (surprise, surprise) but he’s hitting the ball pure and giving himself birdie opportunities. Like Cantlay, Matsuyama has won at Muirfield, though Matsuyama’s victory came six years ago. He’s missed merely one cut at this location since his victory and has two top-10s. Matsuyama should feel good about his chances, but I’m looking a little further down the golf betting board this week.

Though I expect most of the top golfers to use the Workday Charity Open as more of a tune-up for next week’s Memorial, also at Muirfield Village, the two golfers I’m betting on in this range are Justin Rose +2600 and Collin Morikawa +3300. A colleague pointed Rose out yesterday and after some digging, it’s tough to disagree. Rose’s 2020 numbers don’t look great, at least they don’t support the short price tag. Rose was +5000 four weeks ago at Colonial, mainly due to his struggles before the PGA suspended its season. Rose missed three of four cuts before the hiatus. He had failed to shoot under 70 in eight of his previous 10 rounds. But as I wrote then, the break from competitive golf couldn’t have come at a better time for the 39-year-old PGA Tour veteran. See, Rose had inked a deal with Honma, a Japanese Club manufacturer. Things didn’t go as planned. Rose first switched back to TaylorMade irons at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, then parted ways with Honma during the break. Rose was able to start hot with the first-round lead at the Charles Schwab Challenge before finishing 3rd that Sunday, followed by a 14th at the RBC Heritage. Rose gained 6.4 and 8.7 strokes tee-to-green during that span, respectively. It’s one reason I asked if now is the time to bet on Rose’s golf majors odds. Rose would miss the cut at the Travelers, but don’t let that frighten you. Except two missed cuts in 2015 and 2011, Rose has enjoyed his time at Muirfield Village. He has two 8ths (‘12 and ’13), a 2nd (‘15), 6th (‘18), and finished 13th here last year.

[To bet on Justin Rose +2600 at FanDuel Sportsbook, click here!]

Morikawa started his pro career by making 22 cuts in a row but had his impressive made-cut streak come to an end at the Travelers, leaving him three shy of a Tiger Woods record. Maybe we should have seen it coming after he lost strokes tee-to-green and approach one week prior, which was the first time he had done so since August 2019. In fact, Morikawa has only lost strokes in those categories three times since turning pro. Maybe the slump will continue, but I’m betting on a return to form this week at a course that should suit his eye, particularly with its small greens. Within this week’s field, Morikawa is first in strokes gained approach and ball-striking. If he can get back on track with his iron play and finds a way not to lose strokes on the green (a big request), he’ll be in contention come Sunday.

[To bet on Collin Morikawa +3300 at FOX Bet, click here!]

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Workday Charity Open Mid-Tier Odds and Picks

As the top golfers prepare for the Memorial, I like betting on some mid-tier options and longshots who are a bit more hungry for a victory. We’ll start by sticking with two golfers I featured a week ago, Matthew Wolff +7500 and Harold Varner III +1000.

Unfortunately we are no longer getting more than 100-1 on Wolff after his showing in Detroit. Wolff entered the fourth round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a three-stroke lead, but the combination of early nerves and a relentless Bryson DeChambeau was too much to overcome. Wolff’s putting from last week likely won’t carry over, and it’s certainly not sustainable long term, but he was able to take advantage of hitting more drivers and his game was sharp elsewhere. As I’ve discussed ad nauseam, Wolff was one of the top college golfers in the nation along with teammate Viktor Hovland before the duo turned professional last summer. He already has one victory on Tour, and if last week is a sign, things might be coming together for him after struggling early in the season.

[To bet on Matthew Wolff +7500 at FanDuel Sportsbook, click here!]

As for Harold Varner, his numbers this season have been astounding. He’s 5th in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, 9th ball-striking, and 10th off-the-tee when it comes this week’s field. His approach game has also been excellent in recent weeks. Muirfield’s shorter rough and slower greens should benefit both Varner and Wolff. 100-1 on Varner in particular is steal at FOX Bet. I’ll be looking at first-round leader odds and tee-time conditions for Varner as well.

[To bet on Harold Varner +10000 at FOX Bet, click here!]

Scottie Scheffler has missed two cuts in a row, but his most recent round was a 7-under 65. During those 18 holes, Scheffler gained strokes across the board. He’s now +8500 at FanDuel Sportsbook just a few weeks after being as short as +4000 in Texas. Now is a good time to buy low on the 24-year-old.

[To bet on Scottie Scheffler +8500 at Fanduel Sportsbook, click here!]

Workday Charity Open Longshot Golf Betting Picks

Henrik Norland +35000 (yes, 350-1) at FOX Bet sticks out like sore thumb after an impressive performance in Detroit. Norlander gained 8.3 strokes with is approach shots, finishing 12th despite losing 2.5 strokes on the greens. Norlander doesn’t hit the ball far, but he consistently stays away from trouble. To see the value we’re getting at FOX Bet with 350-1, just look at Norlander’s odds at FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM: 150-1.

[To bet on Henrik Norlander +35000 at FOX Bet, click here!]

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Monkey Knife Fight Golf Picks Round 1

Don’t live in a state with legal online sports betting? Click here to play at Monkey Knife Fight. Here’s my favorite play for Round 1 of the Workday Charity Open.

More or Less 2/2: Rose and Thomas Under 68.5 Strokes (Pays 2.5x your buy-in)

Workday Charity Open Late Adds

Sunjae Im +4500 – Im hasn’t played great but we’re getting better odds after a trio of lackluster performances (MC/58/53) than we were seeing a month ago. If this is a tournament that some golfers use as practice for next week’s Memorial, I can assure you Im won’t be one of them.

Workday Charity Open Golf Betting Picks

2019-20 PGA Tour Season: -36.85 units

Check out our PGA Betting Guide for more golf betting tips.
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