NFL DFS Picks: Chris Godwin and WR vs. CB Matchup Analysis for Week 1 (FREE)
One of the keys to NFL DFS success is locating the highest upside at the wide receiver position. Which wideouts have the easiest matchups against the opposing secondaries? Which receivers will fly under the radar and make the difference in large-field tournaments? Each week this NFL season, ChrisGimino will explore his favorite WR plays on the slate, with the sort of insight and knowledge that only he can provide!
NOTE: This article is free for Week 1 only. Enjoy!
Click here for the Week 1 Matchup Chart
Chalk Matchups
Chris Godwin vs. 49ers
For a player who only participated on 62% of routes last season, Godwin was a monster inside the 10-yard line. He was targeted 14 times in the end zone, including 10 from closer than 10 yards away. Now an every-down player, he finally checks all the boxes. Superior athleticism? Check – he’s a 96th percentile SPARQ-x freak. Opportunity Guaranteed? Check – New Head coach Bruce Arians says he’ll be on the field for literally every play. Efficiency? Check – the aforementioned TD equity adds huge upside to the high floor generated by his target projection. Matchup? Check – He faces off against either K’Waun Williams or Jimmy Ward (If Williams is out) in the slot for a 49ers team that was pathetic in the secondary last season. They only generated two interceptions as a team, and that doesn’t even seem possible. Williams grades poorly across the board including a passer rating allowed over 110 in 2018. To make this decision even easier for you, Godwin isn’t even priced efficiently for his new situation. He’s an amazing option week 1.
Tyler Boyd vs. Seahawks
There is a possibility that the Seahawks will field one of the worst defensive backfields in the league in 2019, and they’ll need some young players to step up quickly to avoid that. The Seahawks are high on their young rookie slot cornerback Ugo Amadi, and the expectation is that he’ll see plenty of time in the slot this week. Despite the massive underdog status of the Bengals, it’s hard to look at this individual matchup and not favor an emerging Tyler Boyd over the totally unproven rookie DB.
Boyd’s yards per route run per our friends at PlayerProfiler.com was right up there with some names you know and love in 2018: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, and Robert Woods. He’s a legitimate threat that we can rightfully project for a large share of team targets. If the spread is accurate, the Bengals should also be trailing in this game, further increasing the chances of a pass-heavy approach in the second half of the game. The floor seems high for Boyd and he’s not priced right for his role in the absence of A.J. Green. I think fully fading this spot is asking for trouble in the long run, and I would take a hard look at challenging the Seahawks secondary in this spot.
Curtis Samuel vs. Rams
We all love some good offseason hype, but Samuel doesn’t exactly find himself in a dream matchup lined up against Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib Week 1. I was surprised to learn Talib was in the bottom 15 in yards per route last season (in limited snaps), but that isn’t a good enough reason to call this a good matchup.
Samuel, while interesting for the upcoming season, really hasn’t ever shown us that he’s ready to win against top corners. I know this because he’s never really been a full-time player, including just 53% route participation a year ago. I’m not saying he can’t get over on a guy like Talib, but we certainly haven’t seen a sustained period of his usage as a top offensive weapon. We just don’t know for sure what he can do.
The price point is too low to ignore on DraftKings this weekend, but I think you can make a pretty good case not to play him on .5 PPR sites elsewhere. The ownership is expected to be high, and you can find comfort in avoiding that GPP ownership knowing that the Rams secondary is expected to be a top 10 unit supported by a top 10 pass rush. A ceiling game from Samuel is far from a guarantee.
Julio Jones vs. Vikings
Xavier Rhodes is not a player to be afraid of anymore, if he ever was. He had a massive gap between his actual catch rate allowed (56.5%) and his deserved catch rate (82.7%) allowed per Sports Info Solutions. Translation: the guys he covered kept dropping the damn ball, and his production allowed could have been a lot worse a season ago. 19 other targets in his direction were deemed uncatchable, and I’ve witnessed him getting burned by surprisingly bad players as recently as the preseason 2019. He’s overrated.
The Vikings aren’t going to stop Julio with 1 on 1 coverage from Rhodes, and perhaps they won’t try that. No matter what they try, the Falcons will continue to jam targets down the throat of their alpha male WR1. Wouldn’t you? He finished #1 in yards per route run last season among qualifying heroes, making him the unquestioned top WR in the league in my eyes. He’s virtually matchup proof, and Xavier Rhodes doesn’t impact my willingness to play him at all.
Tournament Pivots
Kenny Golladay vs. Cardinals
The Lions feel like a slow team, but I’m wondering how true that is going to be in 2019. It certainly has potential to be untrue this week against the Cardinals, who figure to do whatever it is that they’ll do very quickly. That could be in the form of quick scoring drives, or quick punts. Either way, I expect the Lions to have plenty of opportunities in this game.
Golladay is the clear top option in the passing game for Detroit, and the Cardinals secondary will be without Patrick Peterson. That means coverage could be coming from names like Tramaine Brock, Byron Murphy, and Chris Jones. The latter two names have a grand total of zero starts in the NFL to date. The former is 31 years old and playing in his 10th NFL season. The Cardinals rank as one of the worst projected pass rush teams in the league this year as well, which could give Stafford plenty of time to find the uber-athletic Golladay deep downfield. This is an outstanding time to capitalize on “Babytron”, who should carry ownership well below his chances of winning the week for you.
Odell Beckham vs. Titans
Update: I think a report about his hip still giving him trouble will lower his ownership a bit more, but also increase his downside. I don’t think his health takes him out of play, but just noting there are reports he’s not 100%
There are so many options on opening weekend that Beckham could find himself undervalued in his brand new role for the Browns. He’ll likely be shadowed by Adoree’ Jackson, who is not an elite cover corner. In fact, he was top 12 in yards per route allowed in 2018 per our data from PlayerProfiler.com. We can find additional context on his vulnerability from Sports Info Solutions, who charted 100 targets against him last season on 522 snaps. Quarterbacks are not afraid to throw in his direction at all, and it goes without saying Baker Mayfield will be more willing to outright attack this matchup than avoid it. If Beckham is indeed projected for modest ownership by the end of the weekend, this is a spot where he could be providing you a massive upper hand.
Tyler Lockett vs. Bengals
B.W. Webb is an incredible name for an office supply delivery company or perhaps a stone masonry business. It’s not nearly as impressive for a journeyman NFL cornerback playing for his 6th team in 6 years. We should be excited to see players we want to play charted across from him in WR/CB charts.
As it stands, Lockett is the clear #1 option in the Seattle passing game. Even though the game projects run-heavy as huge home favorites, they can’t run the ball on 100% of plays. When they do throw it, it’s fair to expect Lockett to be the target somewhere between 20 and 30% of the time. His efficiency when targeted last year was out of this world, generating 13.6 yards per target and a #1 ranked production premium (a stat that compares your performance on every opportunity to league average in that same situation). Lockett is affordable and well-positioned for success in tournaments, especially if he can steal the TD production away from his higher owned teammate Chris Carson.
Difficult Matchups
T.Y. Hilton vs. Chargers
With Andrew Luck’s retirement, we don’t really need additional reasons to fade the Colts on the road against a tough defense. However, Casey Hayward gives us exactly that. He’s allowed a paltry 1.18 yards per route run a season ago, and QBs targeted against him just 18% of the time. That’s the third-lowest of any CB playing on this slate. T.Y. will have low ownership, and rightfully so. He’ll have to defeat one of the toughest defenders in the league with his team’s backup QB at the helm in order to be a requirement to win, and the odds are largely against that outcome.
Tyreek Hill vs. Jaguars
This should be fun. One of the most explosive playmakers in football against one of the loudest mouths of any defender who ever lived. Ramsey backed up the Brinks truck on his way in to training camp this season, and we get to find out Week 1 one if he is indeed worthy of that kind of fanfare. Reports are that he’ll shadow Hill on every snap, which is somewhat scary if you have intentions of using him in a Chiefs stack. For what it’s worth, I actually think Hill is the favorite in this matchup by a small margin. That being said, it’s hard to get truly excited about a week winning performance when you know a talented player is going to follow him around all game. Hill is fine play in tournaments, but don’t be stunned if his production is higher in future weeks.