WR vs. CB Matchup Analysis: Week 10
One of the keys to NFL DFS success is locating the highest upside at the wide receiver position. Which wideouts have the easiest matchups against the opposing secondaries? Which receivers will fly under the radar and make the difference in large-field tournaments? Each week this NFL season, ChrisGimino will explore his favorite WR plays on the slate, with the sort of insight and knowledge that only he can provide!
Week 10
Chalk Matchup
Michael Thomas vs. Bengals
Michael Thomas absolutely broke the slate last week with an 83.3% share of team air yards on just a 34.8% share of targets. The matchup with the Bengals is essentially no issue for him despite a matchup with the competent DB William Jackson. In my other Article called Stat Factors, I revealed how the Bengals are a top 10 matchup in terms of success rate allowed in both 0-9 yard passing and 10-19 yard passing. The Saints are likewise a top success rate producer in those ranges. Michael Thomas has seen 87% of his targets in that depth range, and it seems likely he’ll be producing at a high level yet again this week. Jackson may not be the typical weak DB we highlight in articles like this, but he is simply not good enough (with a 105.8 rating allowed when targeted) to deter us from dialing up Thomas.
Jarvis Landry vs. Falcons
The Falcons defense doesn’t lend itself well to big plays in the passing game, opting instead to allow production to fall within the 0-19 yard range. Landry leads the league in routes run thanks to some overtime games, and 85% of his targets on those routes are coming less than 20 yards downfield. Brian Poole is no shutdown corner, as evidenced by his #85 coverage rating on PlayerProfiler.com and #72 player grade per PFF. My expectation is that Landry continues to see a dominant target share, and will see those targets against a scheme that favors his style and a slot DB that is incapable of curbing his production.
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