Yards Per Gretch: Week 13

by Ben Gretch (gretch) Last Updated 2018-12-01 15:28:35 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

Ben Gretch, Editor in Chief of Fantasy Insiders, takes an ultra-high resolution look at the upcoming NFL week. If you haven’t yet been introduced to Ben’s level of thinking, get ready for great takes loaded with analytical insight.

Week 13

Early on this season, the “Expanding Roles” section of this article was a place to discuss some of the developing roles that the public wasn’t on yet. As the season went along and offenses became more defined, options were limited some weeks. That isn’t the case for Week 13, and it’s the story of the slate. There is available opportunity abound; finding cheap options is easy; making the right plays will be the key.

Let’s get to the picks.

Exploitable Situations

Kenny Golladay vs. LAR / Emmanuel Sanders @CIN

I’m lumping these seemingly unrelated names together because their circumstances are similar. Both teams saw a key receiving piece get traded, opening up a healthy target share. Both have been pretty run heavy since, which didn’t really highlight all the available targets, then saw a second key piece hit IR this week (Marvin Jones and Jeff Heuerman ). What we’re left with is a massive share of targets available in both offenses.

Neither Golladay or Sanders is priced up enough to account for how clearly they are the No. 1 options in their passing games. We know both can ball, and neither gets a remotely difficult draw this week, with Golladay being the possible exception if Aqib Talib comes back from IR in top form, which seems unlikely. The advantage for Golladay is the Lions will almost certainly be chasing and need to throw, so his target floor is strong.

For Sanders, there’s a possibility Denver gets out ahead and we see a ton of Phillip Lindsay against the Bengals’ terrible defense. Even that might not matter, as Sanders saw 12 targets last week on just 28 total pass attempts, a week-leading 43% target share.